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Thread: Failed quads

  1. #41
    Originally Posted by Rob.Singer View Post
    Alan, exactly how can anyone present proof to anyone else of a multi-visit 45000 hand trial at a casino unless they go together? And the reason I said "close to proof" is because that many hands, to me, only gave me direction to do a much more thorough study.

    You've already said you don't consider a billion hand test on a single machine as proof that anything's out of whack. Are you like Obama--do you need to be smacked upside the head with TRILLIONS of hands before it finally gets thru? So please tell me exactly what will you need to do a story on it?
    OH-I see a new name already-WHACKERDOODLE!

  2. #42
    Alan, it was proven at the time Singer made these claims that he was lying. He was challenged to prove it in person by webman at vp.com. They had a meet and ran a test. The machines did the 5th card flip-over precisely at the value predicted by randomness. In addition, a magazine reporter asked people to try it themselves and send in results to get a bigger sample. Same result.

    The fact is we get dealt 4 held cards quite often. You can test it yourself anytime you are playing. Just keep records of the total number and the number of times the 5th card is the same rank on the draw. It should happen 3/47 times. I got a good laugh back when Singer made this silly claim the first time. I have no idea why you don't just mock him for bringing it up again.

  3. #43
    I've had other conspiracy theorists tell me that after the failed 5th card, the first card on the next hand is always the card that was needed on the prior hand. Anyone think that is going on? I never really noticed.

  4. #44
    Originally Posted by regnis View Post
    I've had other conspiracy theorists tell me that after the failed 5th card, the first card on the next hand is always the card that was needed on the prior hand. Anyone think that is going on? I never really noticed.
    Lots of reports on that also, so I checked it out and there was really nothing out of spec. We just remember the mockings more.

  5. #45
    Originally Posted by regnis View Post
    I've had other conspiracy theorists tell me that after the failed 5th card, the first card on the next hand is always the card that was needed on the prior hand. Anyone think that is going on? I never really noticed.
    Not only does it happen on video poker... but it also happens in "live poker." It's not in the programming of the RNG. It's not a conspiracy. It happens and our minds make a "connection" when it does happen and we create beliefs and superstitions because of these random events.

    In live poker, a player who loses with pocket queens in one hand, will see a queen flop on the next hand and say "my queen came one hand too late."

    Regnis, do you also believe a change of the stick man causes a seven out in craps?

    Rob Singer: you might have had the discovery of a lifetime... but you gave the machine back and now there is no way to prove it. I told you how to prove it: find another machine and have the chip examined. Otherwise we're just going to hear the same thing about having a "head examined."

  6. #46
    Originally Posted by Alan Mendelson View Post
    Finally, Rob has said something that is both reasonable and something which would actually permit a test of his theory and allegations that video poker games are not truly random. In his discussion about fifth card flipovers above he wrote:



    Well, Rob, if it's encoded then the test and the proof would be in the examination of the RNG and you don't have the RNG. You tested it and then you returned the machine. That was your blunder.

    So tell me this: is there a reason why you can't buy a VP machine, remove the RNG and have it tested??
    First, it was no blunder. I wasn't supposed to have that machine and it was best to return it by the date agreed upon and paid for.

    Why don't I buy a machine now? While our RV is BIG....it's not THAT big. It took us four or five passes to give away and throw away enough accumulated "stuff" from our house and apartment so as to be able to comfortably live on the road. I'd have to get rid of a person in order to fit a vp machine inside. But I'm no AP--I don't cause sick people to become sicker, and I don't throw them out or cast them off to nursing homes or hospices. I also don't care that much about this subject. I'd rather ride my bicycle all afternoon or go for my daily 3 mile walk.

  7. #47
    Originally Posted by arcimede$ View Post
    Alan, it was proven at the time Singer made these claims that he was lying. He was challenged to prove it in person by webman at vp.com. They had a meet and ran a test. The machines did the 5th card flip-over precisely at the value predicted by randomness. In addition, a magazine reporter asked people to try it themselves and send in results to get a bigger sample. Same result.

    The fact is we get dealt 4 held cards quite often. You can test it yourself anytime you are playing. Just keep records of the total number and the number of times the 5th card is the same rank on the draw. It should happen 3/47 times. I got a good laugh back when Singer made this silly claim the first time. I have no idea why you don't just mock him for bringing it up again.
    This....from a tested genius. I see now how a few hundred hands of vp illustrates the long term. While I understand there are days in any care facility that can be significantly trying and life-sapping, it's not supposed to make a hypocrite out of a fact-driven nerd.

    Care to try again in order to save family-face?

  8. #48
    Originally Posted by Rob.Singer View Post
    First, it was no blunder. I wasn't supposed to have that machine and it was best to return it by the date agreed upon and paid for.

    Why don't I buy a machine now? While our RV is BIG....it's not THAT big. It took us four or five passes to give away and throw away enough accumulated "stuff" from our house and apartment so as to be able to comfortably live on the road. I'd have to get rid of a person in order to fit a vp machine inside. But I'm no AP--I don't cause sick people to become sicker, and I don't throw them out or cast them off to nursing homes or hospices. I also don't care that much about this subject. I'd rather ride my bicycle all afternoon or go for my daily 3 mile walk.
    I'm not going to comment about your inappropriate comments, but I will say this: you will never be able to prove your allegations about fifth card flipovers or non random machines without an actual examination of the electronics of a machine. Sorry, but all of your logs are meaningless and in a courtroom would not be valid evidence and at best would be hearsay. The proof is in the chips, and you don't have any.

  9. #49
    Originally Posted by Alan Mendelson View Post
    Regnis, do you also believe a change of the stick man causes a seven out in craps?

    Rob Singer: you might have had the discovery of a lifetime... but you gave the machine back and now there is no way to prove it. I told you how to prove it: find another machine and have the chip examined. Otherwise we're just going to hear the same thing about having a "head examined."
    I've played craps for 50 years, and it does seem like any of the superstitious things (new dealer, off the table, cocktail waitress, etc.) cause the 7-out, but I assume it's like you said in thread 45. In all those years, I only called my bets off once--when I was heavily loaded up and the dice went off the table. I had a $500 4 and $100 hard 4. Dice went off the table, I called my bets off, and the guy rolled hard 4 hard 4 and I wanted to kill myself. Otherwise, I've never done it except for one thing that I do 100% of the time. Where a guy is having a good roll and the wife or girlfriend comes wandering over to the table to bother him about dinner or needing some $$, I am off every time and it has been a huge positive.

  10. #50
    Originally Posted by regnis View Post
    Where a guy is having a good roll and the wife or girlfriend comes wandering over to the table to bother him about dinner or needing some $$, I am off every time and it has been a huge positive.
    Yes, when this happens calling off your bets because you fear a 7 will show will be the right thing to do one out of 7 times.

  11. #51
    Originally Posted by Rob.Singer View Post
    This....from a tested genius. I see now how a few hundred hands of vp illustrates the long term. While I understand there are days in any care facility that can be significantly trying and life-sapping, it's not supposed to make a hypocrite out of a fact-driven nerd.

    Care to try again in order to save family-face?
    Anyone can test this themselves. It's takes very little time and you can get 100s of opportunities in a single session. That's why people mock Singer. They did the work and found the numbers to be perfectly normal. Singer already looked like a complete idiot pushing this lie the first time. I can only laugh at the stupidity of making himself look like a fool yet again.

  12. #52
    Originally Posted by Rob.Singer View Post
    First, it was no blunder. I wasn't supposed to have that machine and it was best to return it by the date agreed upon and paid for.

    Why don't I buy a machine now? While our RV is BIG....it's not THAT big. It took us four or five passes to give away and throw away enough accumulated "stuff" from our house and apartment so as to be able to comfortably live on the road. I'd have to get rid of a person in order to fit a vp machine inside. But I'm no AP--I don't cause sick people to become sicker, and I don't throw them out or cast them off to nursing homes or hospices. I also don't care that much about this subject. I'd rather ride my bicycle all afternoon or go for my daily 3 mile walk.
    Yeah-the articles on hot and cold cycles are much more important.

  13. #53
    Originally Posted by slingshot View Post
    Yeah-the articles on hot and cold cycles are much more important.
    Hot and cold cycles are a normal result of randomness. If they didn't exist the machines would NOT be random. Of course, there is no way to predict any aspect of the cycles. Some will be short, some will be long ... trying to predict them is like searching for unicorns.

  14. #54
    Originally Posted by arcimede$ View Post
    Hot and cold cycles are a normal result of randomness. If they didn't exist the machines would NOT be random. Of course, there is no way to predict any aspect of the cycles. Some will be short, some will be long ... trying to predict them is like searching for unicorns.
    Thus the reason for win goals

  15. #55
    Originally Posted by slingshot View Post
    Thus the reason for win goals
    Perhaps loss limits are even more important than win goals. I like adjustable win goals that will take advantage of "getting lucky hot streaks" but if you lose too much money at one time you might never be able to return to the casino to hit a hot streak in the future.

  16. #56
    Originally Posted by slingshot View Post
    Thus the reason for win goals
    slingshot,

    You seem to be a big believer in win goals, loss limits, and Rob Singer's various strategies. Have you used them to win $1 million as well?

  17. #57
    That's a loaded question. I don't know many VP players with a $173, 000 bankroll for video poker which I think is a prerequisite for winning a million dollars.

  18. #58
    Originally Posted by Alan Mendelson View Post
    That's a loaded question. I don't know many VP players with a $173, 000 bankroll for video poker which I think is a prerequisite for winning a million dollars.
    OK then, let's rephrase the question. How much money are you (slingshot or Alan) ahead overall by using win goals, loss limits and Rob Singer's strategies?

  19. #59
    Well I don't use Rob's strategies so I will have to pass on responding.

  20. #60
    Originally Posted by a2a3dseddie View Post
    OK then, let's rephrase the question. How much money are you (slingshot or Alan) ahead overall by using win goals, loss limits and Rob Singer's strategies?
    Well, as my highest denom is only 25 cents-only a couple of hundred dollars. I would be ahead a couple of thousand if I had disciplined myself to leave when ahead. That's why I'm so adamant about it-leaving is the hardest lesson to learn and it's been my worst feat to conquer. So all I can relay is that HAD I QUIT when playing, I would be ahead a calculated $5000. There were two times I hit a Royal within 30 minutes and COULDN'T WALK. I have experienced what happens when you don't listen. I am a compulsive gambler trying to turn this thing around and the couple of hundred dollars may not seem like much to anyone-but it's a great feat for where I was headed. A couple of weeks ago, I hit 4 A's w/kicker on tdbp and ended up playing $500 of it back. Sad. So if you won't listen to a winner, listen to a loser
    Last edited by slingshot; 07-16-2013 at 08:57 PM.

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