Hundreds of Threads.......

[mr jjj]

"Random chance says all numbers will not hit equally. Make it simple: roll one six-sided die six times. Will each face show up one time? Maybe and maybe not. But that test means nothing. 228 roulette spins means nothing. 2,228 spins also means nothing. 2,228,000 spins also means nothing because random is random" >>>

Sooo, I'm not sure what definitions of hot & cold we are using? Let me ask this...... if over 700 spins, the #14 hit two times, would you say the 14 (FOR NOW) is cold? AND......over those same 700 spins, the #21 hit 30 times, would you say the 21 (FOR NOW) is hot?


If your LIFE was on the line (its pretend, play along) and you had to choose, the 14 or 21 for 18 spins, which do you choose and WHY? I'm off to the casino (again) ya'll have a good evening.

Ken

[Alan Mendelson]

I don't believe in hot or cold numbers. Does that answer your question?

[mr jjj]

"I don't believe in hot or cold numbers. Does that answer your question?" >>> Okay, I'll re-word it for you buddy. I won't limit it to the two choices. Remember, your LIFE IS ON THE LINE !!!! You can pick ANY number, keep in mind, you have the stats I provided above.

Ken

[slingshot]

My first experience with this thinking was about 10 years ago when I was just learning vp on a "teaching" download from the internet. I drew 3-to-a Royal, the warning prompt came on and said the high pair was the best hold, but I ignored it and hit the royal. At least 1/3 of my quads and 3 of my Royals are from thinking outside the box.

[mr jjj]

I could break down the question into a smaller version >> If the #36 hit 28 times in the last 250 spins, could you say the 36 is TEMPORARILY hot? I did not say it would be hot for the next 800 spins.

Ken

[Alan Mendelson]

Again, a simpler problem: Your life is on the line and of the last 20 spins of the roulette wheel, 20 of the 20 were red. Where do you put your life? On red or black or green? I think reasonable people would not choose green, but how do you choose between red or black? I'd flip a coin.

[arcimede$]

There are no such thing as hot or cold numbers with a random process. There is just variance. OTOH, if there is a bias in the selection of the numbers then there could clearly be some numbers that are more likely to occur. Any measurement of a process that finds bias is actually finding the process is not random by the very definition of randomness.

[mr jjj]

Even from an AP (cough) guy, its RARE to not even use the word hot (non-bias wheel mind you) in some form. How silly do I have to get with the question??? (lol) >> If the #36 hit 58/60 spins, would that 36 be hot? (Come on now man).

Its on the tip of your tongue, I know you want to say....the 36 is HOT (lol)

Ken

[mr jjj]

"Your life is on the line and of the last 20 spins of the roulette wheel, 20 of the 20 were red. Where do you put your life? On red or black or green?" >>> Bad example and I'll tell ya why. I only look at HOT or COLD by individual numbers, by themselves. So 20/20 were red? How many of those red numbers are COLD?

Its like this.......the 19 20 21 street is hitting at a higher rate than it should (hot) BUT the 19 & 20 are cold as ice, no hits. The 21 has like 10 hits in the last 42 spins. Does that make the 19 20 21 street hot? .... or the 21/24 split hot?

Ken

[arcimede$]

It doesn't make any of them hot if the selection is truly random. How long are you going to persist in this nonsense?

[Vegas_lover]

I don't believe in hot or cold numbers. Does that answer your question?

+1. The game doesn't know the difference between the numbers. It has no opinion nor preference. The number hits where the ball lands.

[mr jjj]

"The game doesn't know the difference between the numbers. It has no opinion nor preference. The number hits where the ball lands" >>> VERY true, no arguement from me!!! There are few certainties regarding roulette. If I asked you to make a list, there would not be much on it and I would again agree.

There is one item for sure though...... unequal distribution and I take ADVANTAGE of this unequal distribution. In 228 spins, every number will NOT hit 6 times and that is GREAT for me. This is a FACT, not an opinion.

Thank God for gamblers fallacy, I owe ya one J.C.

Ken

[a2a3dseddie]

There is one item for sure though...... unequal distribution and I take ADVANTAGE of this unequal distribution. In 228 spins, every number will NOT hit 6 times and that is GREAT for me. This is a FACT, not an opinion.

Thank God for gamblers fallacy, I owe ya one J.C.

Ken

Everyone is in agreement that it is unlikely you would see each number 6 times after just 228 spins. The problem is, what you see or chart is all in hindsight. Let's say #7 came up 12 times instead of 6 times. What does that mean? Do you bet it over the next 228 spins because the number is hot, or not bet it since it shouldn't show up at all over the next 228 spins? The answer is it doesn't matter. the odds against any number showing up are 37 to 1 against every single spin.

It sounds like you are claiming you can predict which numbers will show up after charting 228 spins. You can't really believe this can you?

[Alan Mendelson]

There is one item for sure though...... unequal distribution and I take ADVANTAGE of this unequal distribution. In 228 spins, every number will NOT hit 6 times and that is GREAT for me. This is a FACT, not an opinion.

Thank God for gamblers fallacy, I owe ya one J.C.

Ken

This is true, there is an unequal distribution but this is what you see in the mirror after you are five miles down the highway. And what you see five miles back does not tell you about the next turn or exit on the freeway, or the next number to come up on the roulette wheel.

I still need you to tell me why "streets" get completed and why if two numbers hit, a third in the street will also hit?

[regnis]

We got neighborhoods here in chicago where legs get broken if your street doesn't get finished. Maybe that's what triple j is suggesting.

[a2a3dseddie]

As far as "better" numbers go, any comments yet? >>

I have recorded the last 200 spins (00 wheel). I'll pick 3 numbers for you and 3 numbers for myself. The 3 I choose for you are the 3 furthest back hit. The 3 I choose for myself are the MOST hit (hot) in the last 70 spins of that 200.

We bet these 6 numbers for the next 20 spins. We repeat this (with a fresh 200 numbers) over 100 trials and check the results. I have done this ALL MANUALLY, even during Christmas and the TEMPORARILY hot numbers come out ahead constantly.

Ken

Why wouldn't the temporarily hot numbers come out ahead? In the parameters you describe, the numbers you are picking have already appeared more than the statistical norm. Then, you only allow 20 more spins. Over those 220 spins (before starting the next "trial") your 3 numbers were already ahead of any numbers you assigned to us.

Or are you saying that your "hot" numbers will appear more often in the next 20 spins (not collectively over the total 220 spins)?

[Alan Mendelson]

Since we're talking about "theories" and "strategies" and hopes and desires of roulette... how about this one? When a 0 or 00 is thrown, a 0 or 00 will repeat within 10 more spins, and often within 5. I was told about "this one" but never went to a table to see if true. It's part of the "dealer signature number" belief.

[mr jjj]

"It has no opinion nor preference. The number hits where the ball lands" >>> 100% correct, per spin, per spin, per spin but not collectively. Again, why over 228 spins, does not every number hit EXACTLY 6 times? There has to be a reason. (its rhetorical, no need to answer)

Ken

[mr jjj]

"It doesn't make any of them hot if the selection is truly random. How long are you going to persist in this nonsense?" >>> I know little about craps but I'll give it a shot. Is there such a thing as a HOT shooter. If yes, how can that be?

Ken

[mr jjj]

"When a 0 or 00 is thrown, a 0 or 00 will repeat within 10 more spins" >>> I dont know, is the 0/00 hot at the time?

Ken