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Thread: How do you define "Advantage Play" for casino games such as blackjack and craps?

  1. #1
    The "hot button" for casino gamblers these days is to have the "badge of honor" that goes with being called an "advantage player."

    There are different conditions that make you an "advantage player" depending on the game you are playing in a casino.

    For example, in video poker an advantage player would:

    A. Play games with a positive expectation pay table
    B. Take advantage of casino comps and perks and free play promotions
    C. Use bankroll management
    D. Know the game and the strategy that is proper

    In blackjack an advantage player would:

    A. Know the proper strategy
    B. Use bankroll management
    C. Take advantage of casino comps and perks and free play promotions
    D. Have an ability to "count cards" to know when it is best to increase bets

    In craps an advantage player would have:

    A. Bankroll management. You have to be smart with your money and you have to preserve your bankroll for when the good rolls come.

    B. Betting management. You lose points if you are a horn better or a field better, and even if you are a hardways bettor you are shifting too much advantage to the house.

    C. Comps and bonuses. Even craps players get comps and bonuses and free play and promotions, and you have to take advantage of these.

    Right there are three elements and we haven't even mentioned anything controversial yet. Can anyone disagree with the first three? Any other NON CONTROVERIALS elements of craps advantage play?

    Now, let's get to the controversial element:

    D. Dice influencing. The reality is everyone tries to make the dice go "their way." Some do it by hoping or wishing, and some try to make the dice go their way through prayers. And then there are those who try to throw the dice a certain way. Some stack the dice, some set the dice, some throw the dice with a high loft without a spin, some try a soft roll, some aim for a certain spot on the table, and so forth. EVERYONE TRIES TO INFLUENCE THE DICE. I personally would rather bet on a player -- ANY PLAYER -- who physically tries to make the dice go his way, than a shooter who picks them up and just heaves them. Just the ATTEMPT at dice setting or a controlled throw gives me just a bit more confidence than if someone just picked up the dice, shook them in his/her hand, and heaved them.

    I am not trying to pass judgment on dice influencing or dice control or the effectives of dice setting, or the effectiveness of any grip or toss or table position.

    I am just saying that those four elements define craps advantage play. And if you have three out of the four (one, two and three) I think it puts you ahead of what otherwise would be a negative expectation game.

    Craps is more of a luck game than video poker and blackjack where there are particular skills that are commonly known and respected. But even in the game of casino craps there are some "skills" which can help you win at the game or lose less money.
    Last edited by Alan Mendelson; 09-30-2013 at 07:42 AM. Reason: typo fixed

  2. #2
    There's no such thing as craps players ever having some kind of advantage--mathematical or otherwise. Alan, I think you're overly infatuated with this dice influencing baloney. Why do you think Frank S. has disappeared after trying to do some more useless selling here on that nonsense. He and others like him are doing what every failed gambler always does: they turn to selling anything they can in the gambling business when they finally figure out that their strategies do not work. Making money off of other people is all they have left, and they do it as shamelessly and as sleazy as it gets. Ask Anthony Curtis.

  3. #3
    Originally Posted by Rob.Singer View Post
    There's no such thing as craps players ever having some kind of advantage--mathematical or otherwise. Alan, I think you're overly infatuated with this dice influencing baloney. Why do you think Frank S. has disappeared after trying to do some more useless selling here on that nonsense. He and others like him are doing what every failed gambler always does: they turn to selling anything they can in the gambling business when they finally figure out that their strategies do not work. Making money off of other people is all they have left, and they do it as shamelessly and as sleazy as it gets. Ask Anthony Curtis.
    Sch-C Rob. Sch-C Rob. Man up Rob.

  4. #4
    Originally Posted by quahaug View Post
    Sch-C Rob. Sch-C Rob. Man up Rob.
    This is getting silly phoney. Time to man up. Sch-C please.

  5. #5
    Qua, I see my latest royal at $5--which is something you'll never comprehend at your level--continues to get to you

    BTW, did I mention

  6. #6
    Originally Posted by Rob.Singer View Post
    Why do you think Frank S. has disappeared after trying to do some more useless selling here on that nonsense. He and others like him are doing what every failed gambler always does: they turn to selling anything they can in the gambling business when they finally figure out that their strategies do not work. Making money off of other people is all they have left, and they do it as shamelessly and as sleazy as it gets. Ask Anthony Curtis.
    Ahh how nice of you. Alan, the man who gave you the platform to spout your nonsence and insults, put work into getting Frank S. to contribute to this forum. And when the man does, the first thing you do is burn him to the ground calling him names. You show absolutely no respect for the fact that Alan tries to build this forum. It appears you have serious issues with somebody else than you getting any attention around here. You know, how little kids cry for attention when the grown ups are talking.

    You claim to have nothing to hide about your own success, yet you put so much effort into hiding so much and pointing fingers in the direction of others. The words failed gambler, shameless and sleazy come to mind. But by all means do continue Sir, you're looking better and better in the eyes of most readers every day.

  7. #7
    Rob, I think I pointed out that "advantage play" in craps means more that any claim about dice influencing or dice controlling. I also mentioned:

    Originally Posted by Alan Mendelson View Post
    A. Bankroll management. You have to be smart with your money and you have to preserve your bankroll for when the good rolls come.
    B. Betting management. You lose points if you are a horn better or a field better, and even if you are a hardways bettor you are shifting too much advantage to the house.
    C. Comps and bonuses. Even craps players get comps and bonuses and free play and promotions, and you have to take advantage of these.
    Ironically, Rob, you follow two of those three items. Clearly you advocate bankroll management including the use of win goals and loss limits. You also use a system of betting management which includes moving up and down in denominations on video poker games.

    What you don't seem to endorse is the utilization of comps and bonuses but we all know all you accomplished there was to throw away the extra money the casino was willing to give you on top of your million dollars of winnings that you've told us about.

  8. #8
    Hey, wait a minute, I haven't disappeared. I love to read Alan's site. Basically everything I have to say about dice control (or dice influencing as Alan prefers to call it) I've said in hundreds of thousands of words in my books, articles and past posts. Readers either believe me, don't believe me or don't know what to believe.

  9. #9
    Frank, thanks for being here. I believe in dice influencing. I believe there are people with the skill. I reject how so many people claim to have the skill when really they just get lucky with uncontrolled, uninfluenced and random throws. And as we all know there are other factors in "advantage play" outside of how you throw the dice.

  10. #10
    Originally Posted by Rob.Singer View Post
    There's no such thing as craps players ever having some kind of advantage--mathematical or otherwise.
    Why is that Rob? Depending on what you bet on in craps, isn't the house edge even lower than some of the -EV VP you win at?

  11. #11
    Originally Posted by a2a3dseddie View Post
    Why is that Rob? Depending on what you bet on in craps, isn't the house edge even lower than some of the -EV VP you win at?
    I think the lowest house edge bet for a flat bet is 1.4% or a 98.6% return. Of course when you add odds, the house edge shrinks dramatically.

    Curiously the Fire Bet payoff for all six numbers, paying 1,000 to 1, hits more often than royals. Royals hit on average once in 42,000 hands, but the six point fire hits one in every 6,156 times. It also pays better -- a $5 fire bet pays $5,000 but a $5 video poker bet that hits a royal pays $4,000. Of course you really can't compare the two since the $5 video poker bet can have more, smaller payoffs each time it is made.

  12. #12
    1 in 6156? Where did you get that number from? What is the overall house edge on the Fire bet? I throw $5 on it whenever I play, (which isn't very often) and have never hit any kind of payout on it. For me, I guess the house edge is 100%!

  13. #13
    Originally Posted by a2a3dseddie View Post
    1 in 6156? Where did you get that number from?
    See: http://stickman.casinocitytimes.com/...fire-bet-62190

  14. #14
    Defining an advantage player is very simple:

    It is a person who, by mathematical expectation, is projected to be a long term winner if he plays perfectly.

    You can somewhat count "winners by comps" (where the players expects to lose but will make up with it through comps) if the comps have an actual value to the player greater than his expected losses.

    When I say "actual value", I mean that the player is getting comps that he actually wants, and the amount he would pay if he didn't get them.

    So if I get tickets to Celine Dion as a result of my play, and they are worth $150 each, that can't be counted as $300 in comps from an advantage play standpoing unless I actually like Celine Dion and would have paid $150 each to see her. If I don't like her much but just go because it's free, I can't count it as $300 in comps, as I wouldn't have paid $300 to see her.

    Same thing goes for food, hotel rooms, etc that are earned through comps.

    Another way to define "advantage player" is someone with the mathematical expectation to COST the casino money, rather than make them money. However, it is possible for BOTH the player and casino to lose slightly, so I don't like that definition.
    Check out my poker forum, and weekly internet radio show at http://pokerfraudalert.com

  15. #15
    You also can't be an AP in craps unless you believe in dice setting making a noticeable difference in results.
    Check out my poker forum, and weekly internet radio show at http://pokerfraudalert.com

  16. #16
    The answer should be obvious. Neither game, regardless of the pay table on vp, offers any player an advantage over the casino--mathematical or otherwise. I've really never looked at what profitting possibilities the game of craps may or may not offer, but how to make a consistent profit off of the video poker machines WITH OR WITHOUT SOME MYTHICAL, PERCEIVED "ADVANTAGE" came easy to me.

  17. #17
    Advantage play in vp is nothing but a state of mind. Casinos laugh and indeed, continually invite, these people into their properties to play in just about every conceivable "+EV" promotion. VP 101: The longer you play the more you will lose. Just follow "top expert" Bob Dancer around to see how often he gets invited and re-invited to the same tournaments, promos, and places over and over again. And you guys think the world's most famous and well known "VP AP" has a winning record anywhere?

    Wise up.
    Last edited by Rob.Singer; 09-30-2013 at 06:22 PM.

  18. #18
    In the days when there were positive games, wouldn't someone playing perfect strategy on a positive game and receiving comps be an AP?

    And you know I'm not a believer in AP as a rule in VP, and I'm not saying that guaranties they would win, but they have a theoretical advantage.

    So isn't that an AP--for whatever good that may bring??

  19. #19
    Originally Posted by Rob.Singer View Post
    Advantage play in vp is nothing but a state of mind. Casinos laugh and indeed, continually invite, these people into their properties to play in just about every conceivable "+EV" promotion. VP 101: The longer you play the more you will lose. Just follow "top expert" Bob Dancer around to see how often he gets invited and re-invited to the same tournaments, promos, and places over and over again. And you guys think the world's most famous and well known "VP AP" has a winning record anywhere?

    Wise up.
    Silly nonsense. The casino where I played recently took out the +EV machines because they were losing money. Singer once again provides us with verifiable lies.

  20. #20
    Originally Posted by Rob.Singer View Post
    Just follow "top expert" Bob Dancer around to see how often he gets invited and re-invited to the same tournaments, promos, and places over and over again.
    It could be a very smart marketing move for a casino to be sure that Dancer is part of its events and is seen playing there.

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