The "Gambling Professor's" method on craps

[Perdition]

I know Alan is a frequent craps player as are several others on this forum. On the Wizard's forum, people were talking about this guy's BJ methods and I saw he made a video for craps as well.

As much as you guys have played, is this nonsense or does he have any kind of point?



Also on his video, he suggests leaving as soon as you are up about 10 units(50 dollars in this case) and going to other tables. Wouldn't all this table hopping bring heat down on you?

Any thoughts on this are appreciated.

[Alan Mendelson]

I started to watch it, but was not able to complete it.

Basically because craps is a negative expectation game there is no betting system that will make you win. With that said, there is nothing wrong with leaving a table when you reach a small win goal -- or any win goal. But there is no reason to expect that you will win money at the next table or the next time you play.

He also uses a pass/don't pass simultaneous betting strategy to grind out small wins. There is nothing wrong with this but it won't ever make you a big winner -- and there is no guarantee you will win either. He talks about a string of 8 passes or 8 don't passes in a row -- well, it's happened.

[regnis]

There is absolutely no mathematical basis for that method, and I'd rather kill myself then stand there and play that way. That being said, if a novice wants to try to grind out a few bucks or at least not get killed, it's not the worst system I've ever seen. It is really a modified Martingale, with a slightly higher win than a straight Martingale. I would disagree with his statement that you don't see 8 winners or losers in a row more than once in 8 or 9 hours, and of course that 1 time eats up all the small profits and then some. It is boring--but he does say it's a job--not entertainment.
There is some benefit to be derived from the cleave shots he was throwing at you--but that's another forum.

[Perdition]

Wouldn't table limits pretty much kill this system if you lost more than 5-6 times in a row?

[quahaug]

The tape was interesting (rack wise anyways) and the "method" will work to some degree. The thing is, there is a measure of luck required that he doesn't want to admit. Some poor sap WILL get to the table when eight or more craps are thrown in a row! I think I lost ten BJ hands in a row once but I'm not quite sure though if I actually lost ten straight because my head was spinning. The end was the same either way.

[regnis]

Wouldn't table limits pretty much kill this system if you lost more than 5-6 times in a row?

His eighth level is $1200. Any Vegas casino and the larger local casinos will allow a bet of $1200. If you lost 8 in a row you lose $2380, so you need a decent bankroll to start. I have also lost more than 8 in a row at BJ many times, and am fairly certain I have lost more than 8 in a row at craps many times.

I have to separate my desire for entertainment when playing craps (this method offers no entertainment) from the stated use of this method as a job. But still, the odds are the odds---craps is a negative expectation game. Also, no comps at all are earned by someone playing both the Pass and Don't Pass in Craps.

[Alan Mendelson]

Wouldn't table limits pretty much kill this system if you lost more than 5-6 times in a row?

Caesars Palace has $10 tables with a $60,000 max bet. The dream conditions for a Martingale player.

[regnis]

I sat down and played free on-line. First 4 times I made my 50. Fifth time I lost the $1200 eighth level bet as the dice were ice cold. That is always the problem with any form of Martingale. I will test this some more and let you know results--but will not really run enough tests to mean anything.

[regnis]

Next ten results:
1. +65 6. +220
2. +60 7. +75
3. +50 8. +50
4. +55 9. +60
5. +50 10. +60


I would assume these are pretty standard reults. The + 220 is because I was up to $600 on a bad streak. So if you don't get that 1 bad 1......but I got it too quickly.

[Alan Mendelson]

Next ten results:
1. +65 6. +220
2. +60 7. +75
3. +50 8. +50
4. +55 9. +60
5. +50 10. +60


I would assume these are pretty standard reults. The + 220 is because I was up to $600 on a bad streak. So if you don't get that 1 bad 1......but I got it too quickly.

By the way, did you also happen to keep score on how you would have done if you bet ONLY the pass or only the DONT PASS during these sessions?

[phillyfranko]

interesting...They have a new bet at Delaware Park where if u make the 4 with a 1+3 and a 2+2 etc u can make $6,500 or so on a $25 bet...its like a fire bet, but u need to make all the combinations ...not just 5 or 6 points...I seen a guy win 2 xs in 0ne nite...he won 13,000 just on that hot roller bet as they call it...plus with a roll like that he won big pressing his bets up.

[phillyfranko]

so if u make a 1+5 and a 2+4 and a 3+3 u get the #6 marked...4 #s pays 20-1 5 is 50-1 and all 6 #s is 200-1 I think...I know a $25 max bet on the Hot Roller bet pays $6,500 + if I remember right...I made 5 #s a few times...but 6 is tough.

[Alan Mendelson]

interesting...They have a new bet at Delaware Park where if u make the 4 with a 1+3 and a 2+2 etc u can make $6,500 or so on a $25 bet...its like a fire bet, but u need to make all the combinations ...not just 5 or 6 points...I seen a guy win 2 xs in 0ne nite...he won 13,000 just on that hot roller bet as they call it...plus with a roll like that he won big pressing his bets up.

Wow, never heard of something like that.