About to wrap up the 2013 NFL regular season. Figured I'd mention that I'm 26-11 ATS, which would set a record for me percentage-wise. I'm not big on percentages. I'd rather be 50-30 than 26-11. But I'll take it.
About to wrap up the 2013 NFL regular season. Figured I'd mention that I'm 26-11 ATS, which would set a record for me percentage-wise. I'm not big on percentages. I'd rather be 50-30 than 26-11. But I'll take it.
Congratulations. But... do you have any photos of the winning tickets with you holding them? (LOL)
Nice percentage. How do you maintain the discipline to bet so few games?
Yes a fantastic % red. But I have a few new-age questions if you don't mind:
1. Where's the video of you buying the tickets....or at least, a picture of you with them?
2. How do we know you didn't just pay some hi-roller to let you hold those tickets for a picture?
3. If you did buy them, how do we know you were using your money?
4. And how do we know you didn't lose every penny and more after all those wins?
Then, we want to see copies of your tax returns, bank accounts, and get sworn statements from the 3 people who are closest to you that can provide support for all of the above. But at the end of the day, I'm warning you, we still won't believe you because it's human nature to be skeptical and very jealous over winning gamblers.
Fortunately, I have dated emails with the plays going to clients. Of course, the NSA may have forged those to provide cover for my actual vocation as 009, the agent with a license to bind and torture, but not kill.
Regnis, you just take what's there. It's like using a stove -- you cook when you have food. Otherwise you're wasting time and energy and you might burn yourself.
Percentage is just a number. All that matters is how much you make, really. I'm 41-30 in college football right now, and that's a really good outing. In some ways I feel better about that than the 26-11.
Last edited by redietz; 12-27-2013 at 12:13 PM.
Red--I oversimplified the question. When I was betting football, I would usually like 3-5 games per week. If we average at 4, that's still 68 games. You only bet 37 games. So can you explain how you limit the number of games. How you determine whether to bet a game or not.
Just curious--I no longer bet sports after a visit to my home by the vice squad years ago.
Of course, when we published a sheet I had to pick every game, whether I liked it or not. I had to quit that gig when I was ordered by some undesirables (my bosses) to publish both sides of games in different regions. I would not do it.
Regnis, did you really ask me how do I determine whether to bet a game?
To quote Hunter S. Thompson from a commencement address, "I hate to recommend drugs and alcohol to everyone, but it's worked for me."
I really wasn't looking for your proprietary information as to how to pick a winner. Just was curious what the ultimate factor, if any, is in determining when to pull the trigger.
I used to make my own point spread and look for substantial deviations. What went in to my point spread I would never disclose. But I have no problem saying whether to bet a game was based upon that deviation (for the most part). So I was just wondering what makes you pull the trigger, without asking you what statistics or other factors got you there.
No problem if you can't answer that without disclosing something proprietary or if it just can't be put into a simple statement. Just curious and again admiring your self control in betting so few games.
P.S.--who do you like in the wild card game..........never mind--just kidding
I can answer that one honestly. I don't have any game or total this week.
I lost my final NFL game -- had the Under of Chicago/Green Bay, which blew up on me starting with that no-whistle fumble TD. Managed to win two more college games, so now 43-30 college and finished 26-12 NFL. Have two more college games pending.
redietz,
Just a question. I'm always amazed at how close the bookies can actually predict the spread of a game. Take the 2 games this past Saturday for instance. What goes into that? What kind of computer program are they using, and can "Joe Shmoe" get a hold of it?
You've probably heard this before, but it bears repeating: Pointspreads are not designed to accurately predict the outcome of games. They are designed to get half the betting public on one team and half on the other. They are more about mind-reading the public than evaluating the teams.
But how are those initial lines established? Over/Unders, and point spreads? There must be some kind of supercomputer where all of the team stats get entered. I know the line eventually has to fall (tries to fall) so that the money from the betting public is evenly distributed. BTW did you see that BCS Championship game? Incredible. Only bowl game I watched this year. I hope those 14 people who had bets on Auburn @ 1000 to 1 hedged their bets.
There's no super computer. There are various power ratings that get adjusted by specialists for each sport. The power indexes and specialists become less or more used as they succeed or fail.
This year's divisional round games seems particularly difficult to pick, but I made four bets today each at $250/game.
NE -7.5 over Indy: I'm probably giving this money away because it's more of an emotional pick than a savvy one. I'm a big NE fan, and I know they have devasting key injuries on both sides of the ball. How they finished 12-4 is a complete mystery, but they very easily could also have finished 8-8 or 16-0. We know they've had some crazy last minute miraculous wins, but they earned those. Their losses? By 3 pts. in OT to the Jets, when NY was given a 2nd chance at a failed FG when the Patriots were called for the only defensive pushing penalty in history, while tape shows the Jets regularly made the same play throughout the game and weren't flagged. Further review revealed the ump on that call is from Detroit, and just one day earlier his beloved Tigers were eliminated from the playoffs by the Red Sox. Hmmm.... Then the mysterious end-of-the-game flag p/u incident in the end zone in Carolina on one of the most obvious receive muggings ever. Then a failed last second furious comeback in Miami's end zone when a rookie runs a missed route.But none of that comes close to the final minute in Cincy, where Brady finally had the offense clicking, only to have to play in one of the worst sudden cloud bursts in that city's history, making passing impossible.
I bet NO +7.5 over Seattle. I'm not a Russell Wilson fan. He's a punk, and he has had a string of bad games to end the year. Brees is a true pro, and he owes them one up there.
SF pick 'em over Carolina. I think SF's going to the SB again. They're on a run, and any team with Anquan Boldin has the edge.
SD -9.5 over Denver. Why not....SD beat them by 7 in Denver last month, and they're as spot on as any team is right now. They probably won't WIN the game, but they aren't gonna lose by double figures either, especially when playing one of the worst defenses in the league.
Last edited by Rob.Singer; 01-09-2014 at 08:23 AM.
Can't say that I disagree with Rob on any of that. Having said that, I'll play one or two of the games, and I may use totals.
I know nothing about sports betting but I am curious: was there any long shot bet pre-season that now appears to be paying off?
The longest shot of the remaining teams was Carolina at 50-1 before the season began. I considered them, then decided that their schedule (either the toughest or second toughest, depending how one evaluates) was too much to deal with. They are still a bit of a long shot at 9-1 right now.
Hey Red--are we all making sports betting too difficult. Look at the records of the remaining teams against the spread. Pretty good profit just blindly betting them all year.
And yet when I played I always preferred dogs.
A word of caution for anyone thinking the Broncos have any chance at all in redeeming themselves by making it to the Super Bowl: the other three AFC teams still in it just happen to be the three teams that handed them their three losses this year. Colorado better have it's pot stores stock up on their stupid weed, because there's gonna be a lot of bewildered potheads roaming their streets when the seemingly invincible Broncos lay another familiar egg.
Rob, you did a bad job of shopping for lines on that Seattle/Saints game. I saw as high as +10 on game day. You need to do a better job of getting a feel for the numbers.
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