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Thread: How Important Is A "Profit"

  1. #1
    A friend drove with me to a casino yesterday for lunch (on a voucher) and to watch me use my $660 of free play. We left the casino with our stomachs full and I had $605 which I cashed out from the free play.

    On the ride home we discussed these various free play offers. My friend is not a gambler. When I mentioned to him that I sometimes get daily offers worth $140 of free play he said "you wouldn't drive here for that, would you?" And I responded "not if it is just $140 of free play. But if I was guaranteed to win $100 after expenses for gas and driving then yes I would make the drive."

    We then got into a discussion about the value of money and time.

    One of the things I pointed out is that many people in America spend eight hours a day plus commuting to earn $100 before or after taxes.

    And if I had nothing else to do, I would gladly spend a total of about 4 hours in a car for an enjoyable ride to spend 15 minutes in a casino if I were GUARANTEED to walk out with $100.

    The operative concern here is that I had nothing else to do. Obviously work comes first as does family, scheduled events, doctors visits, even chores like grocery shopping or running to the dry cleaner.

    But is there anything objectionable for spending idle time (recreation time) getting in the car for a nice drive to use $140 of free play if you were GUARANTEED to walk out with $100 ??

    (What I am saying here is that it makes no sense to drive to a casino and spend gas, wear and tear on the car, etc NOT to walk out with some money.)

    I raise this because in another thread Rob wrote:

    Originally Posted by Rob.Singer View Post
    the only thing that matters is if you walked with your profit.
    And one of the things I mentioned to my friend (who criticized me for getting excited over the prospect of winning $100) is that winning $100 from a casino is actually worth more than $100 for someone who is familiar with casino gambling.

  2. #2
    It's good that you are still able to visit casinos for the sake of entertainment Alan. I don't think a lot of the posters on your forum can still do that.

    For those that actually do visit casinos for purposes other than winning money, I don't think to them a profit is all that important. Maybe they went because of a good deal in a restaurant there or because of the entertainment. (i.e. Britney Spears, Katy Perry)

    I'm always a bit skeptical of anyone who claims they can always make a profit going to the casinos or that they win every time. Chance and luck are involved in ALL casino gambling. Chance does not always favor any one individual. If someone expects a profit every time they go into a casino they need help.

  3. #3
    Originally Posted by a2a3dseddie View Post
    It's good that you are still able to visit casinos for the sake of entertainment Alan.
    while I go to a casino for entertainment, I need an incentive: free play, gift promotion, special event such as a show, etc.

    When it comes to entertainment, nothing beats a good movie and popcorn and a ten minute car drive to the theater.

  4. #4
    Alan, I know we've discussed this before, but your thinking is flawed.

    By your own admission, you played a LOT of video poker in 2013.

    You played enough to flatten out a lot of the variance. In fact, I think you said that you got luckier than average, at least with hitting royals.

    You should really see these free plays as an "expected value", rather than worrying about what they will actually result to during individual plays.

    $140 of freeplay will come out to more than $100 on average in the long run, and even the long-short run. So why make statements like, "I would do it, but only if I knew I would win $100."

    Maybe this time you will only win $60, but next time you might win $200, so it all evens out.

    I have also wondered the correct threshhold in making long drives in order to run freeplay, but not based upon how lucky I end up getting. I base it upon vehicle expenses and the value of my time. I don't hate long drives, but it's not like I love them.

    You should play freeplay exactly as you would real money, with the only difference being your stopping point.
    Check out my poker forum, and weekly internet radio show at http://pokerfraudalert.com

  5. #5
    Originally Posted by Dan Druff View Post
    You should really see these free plays as an "expected value", rather than worrying about what they will actually result to during individual plays.

    $140 of freeplay will come out to more than $100 on average in the long run, and even the long-short run. So why make statements like, "I would do it, but only if I knew I would win $100."

    Maybe this time you will only win $60, but next time you might win $200, so it all evens out.
    This of course is very intriguing. I love your last line: "Maybe this time you will only win $60, but next time you might win $200, so it all evens out."

    But... what if it doesn't even out? Have you ever sat at a video poker machine and lost 20 hands in row? I have. And I really mean LOST 20 hands in a row -- without a paying pair to break even. And it hasn't happened just once... it's happened many times. And that's where the "recreational part" of going to a casino ends for me.

    Let's go back to the discussion with my friend: We had just made a two hour drive to the casino and obviously my friend can figure that the drive cost some money. I know that too. But I can say the drive is worthwhile if I know I am going to get a return of at least $100.

    Playing 8/5 Aces and Faces or 8/5 Bonus about 45% of the hands should at least give me a break-even hand or better. So "the math" says I should get at least $63 cash from the $140 of free play. But $63 isn't enough to justify the $40-45 of gas, plus the wear and tear on the car, plus a snack.

    Yes, you could argue that I might do better on the next trip, or I might get $120 on each and every trip -- surpassing my $100 minimum requirement. But that's a gamble. I don't mind taking a trip to "gamble" when I have $500 of free play or a $1,000 of free play ($1,000 is the minimum I need to go to Vegas), but to go to a relatively nearby casino without some kind of "guarantee" isn't worth it for me.

    Here's another way I look at it:

    I could go to a casino and play through $140 and hit for $100 cash and happily leave. But if I played through $140 of free play and hit nothing I would feel like I wasted my time even though not a single dollar came out of my pocket. And while I might win $200 on the next trip, that does nothing to ease what happened on this trip.

    And to put it another way: I want the bird in the hand now, and not the promise of those two in the bush later.

  6. #6
    This goes back to one of the absolute DUMBEST forum-posting by-lines I have ever seen on the Internet: IT'S NOT IF YOU WIN OR LOSE, IT'S IF YOU MADE A GOOD BET. And who is this gem from? Yup, Wizard, owner of the forum with the biggest, most confused collection of head-cases this side of Shangra-la.

    Who in their right mind cares about anything but winning or losing! As an example, big lottery winners, by Michael's definition, make "bad bets" all the time, yet they all have way more money than him specifically because of it. To a much lesser example, he believes I made a bad bet on that 9/6 TDBP $25 machine, and that I have ALWAYS made bad vp bets because I've played mostly -EV games in my strategies. But neither he or his pack of geniuses understand how, and when they were challenged as a group to witness how (don't Phd's make at least minimum wage?) banning was the safe answer.

    All this silly, absolutely STUPID talk of "EV" this or EV that has one single, rather meaningless purpose: it's a justification for failed gamblers to label themselves as "smart" or "strong" players (yes, the infamous & misled"AP" crowd)....and to play far more than they know they should. But I guarantee you, when they win they are giddy as hell, and when they lose they wish they had won. In fact, they'd boldly say they'd have taken a break even day of gambling over what just went down!

    So stick with reality instead of theory. Leave THAT to those who utilize it best: the casinos.

  7. #7
    Rob. In simple and straight talk: what's your point?

  8. #8
    Alan, pretty simple. He got his platform back to fight his personal hate filled battles with people who have nothing to do with the topic at hand. Surprised?

  9. #9
    Originally Posted by Vegas_lover View Post
    Alan, pretty simple. He got his platform back to fight his personal hate filled battles with people who have nothing to do with the topic at hand. Surprised?
    He gets so wrapped up in his personal battles that he failed to make a point, didn't he?

  10. #10
    Originally Posted by Alan Mendelson View Post
    He gets so wrapped up in his personal battles that he failed to make a point, didn't he?
    WINNER, WINNER Chicken dinner

  11. #11
    Well, I'm off to Las Vegas tomorrow in an attempt to escape the frozen tundra of the Great White North here in Canada. (-35C wind chill). I'm meeting a university roommate there who will be having his birthday on January 11th. His divorce will also be finalized in February. Don't know which event we'll be celebrating.

    In keeping in line with the original theme of this thread, I am budgeting $500 per day for gambling. Our rooms, and food were comped in advance. I have 2 rounds of golf, 3 shows, an ATV tour through the desert and a visit to a gun range planned and paid for / comped. I also have about $600 in free slot play to use up.

    Yes, I would love to come home with a profit, but I don't "expect it". Since when did Las Vegas VACATIONS HAVE to be money making endeavors?

    Wish me luck!

  12. #12
    Originally Posted by a2a3dseddie View Post
    Yes, I would love to come home with a profit, but I don't "expect it". Since when did Las Vegas VACATIONS HAVE to be money making endeavors?

    Wish me luck!
    Good luck. Only the so-called "advantage gamblers" (yes, Rob Singer is a "self proclaimed Advantage Player" whether he admits to the title or not) must win or their bubbles are burst. The rest of us (recreational players) play within our comfort zones for the thrill, joy, and adventure of it.

    Imagine what would happen to Rob if he ever admitted to a long losing streak. Rob has accused others have miraculously coming up with "wins" after a long streak... well, Rob has done the same.

    Enjoy your visit and I hope you come back with a MILLION DOLLARS of wonderful memories.

  13. #13
    That's sour grapes Alan. It's also why I always chronicled my sessions in the paper, to the disdain of the non-believers. But what you've seen from me here since retiring is the work of phenomenal good luck. Whether I've strictly stuck to my strategies or not, I've just been sitting at the right machines at the right times, and increasing my denominations almost perfectly. And every game I've played has been -EV, which, of course, means absolutely nothing when playing any machine for an hour or less.

  14. #14
    Make up your mind Rob: are you just lucky or is it your system?

    If you've only had "phenomenal good luck" I'm not impressed.

  15. #15
    Originally Posted by Alan Mendelson View Post
    Make up your mind Rob: are you just lucky or is it your system?

    If you've only had "phenomenal good luck" I'm not impressed.
    Again I have to repeat---my strategies had an 80%-85% win rate from late 1999 until mid-2009. Since then I've won at better than 96%. The strategy equates to an excellent one requiring good luck no better or worse than any other player's. But I've combined that with exceptional luck since. The result is phenomenal.

    Whether you're impressed or not is irrelevant. But your tone is laced with envy. I like that.

  16. #16
    Envy? Who do I envy?

    I envy Frank Borman who was a test pilot for the US Air Force and orbited the moon, and then led a major corporation and created jobs and tried his best to preserve jobs.
    I envy Steve Case who created America Online and ushered in a social revolution that we are using right now.
    I envy Barack Obama who crossed the ultimate racial barrier and was ELECTED President of the United States.

    I can't envy someone who wins money in a casino. Just as I can't envy someone who gets lucky picking lottery numbers.

  17. #17
    Envy? That is an odd thing to say. Rob must believe that people are thinking about him way more than they really are.

  18. #18
    Originally Posted by quahaug View Post
    Envy? That is an odd thing to say. Rob must believe that people are thinking about him way more than they really are.
    Rob even thinks people envy him because of the money he claims to have won. No matter how much money you have Rob your personality and the way you interact with people is way more important. You can put ribbons around a big pile of shit but unfortunately it doesn't change the fact it's still a big pile of shit.

  19. #19
    Well, I think the social revolution is probably bad. I'm left of Marx, but don't like Obama. Borman, however, I like. And I have Chuck Yeager's autograph around here someplace. Those guys were bad-ass before there was a term for it.

  20. #20
    I knew Frank Borman well... very well... from my years in Miami when I was with WTVJ and he was Chairman of Eastern. First professionally, and then personally. If I could have picked who I wanted to be my father I would have picked Frank Borman -- that's how much I loved him. When the LA Business Journal did a profile of me and asked me who I admired most -- I said Frank Borman. Frank Borman was robbed of greatness by the Machinists Union at Eastern Airlines. Borman -- if not for the labor strife that ultimately killed the airline (and other airlines too) -- could have gone on to a Cabinet post or even the White House. He was a national hero who literally was run into a brick wall.

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