I despise the Super Bowl, but here's the kind of thing we do. We took Lynch -17 1/2 yards (-135) versus Moreno and came back with a slightly larger wager on Moreno +28 1/2 yards (+110) versus Lynch. You've gotta catch the right numbers at the right time in the right places.
You can also go blind squinting at this stuff. If I'm going blind, I'd rather it be via porn.
Years ago it was "requested" of me by a couple guys that I not middle games anymore. Although I was dealing craps for the same "employer" as these guys, I took that request to heart.
Good luck. At least Vegas sports book wont break your knee caps. Well--maybe a Fertitta property will.......
Just glad somebody recognizes a healthy middle shot when it's in front of them.
The Fertitta properties keep their numbers so middle-of-the-road that it's very rare to take a crack at them with middles. But that's also why they don't get as much action as they could.
Without going on a hoopla binge, as some occasionally do, let me point out that the middle prop listed in this thread did indeed middle, which means both wagers won. Middling something like this takes good judgement, good eyes, and good timing.
I guess this could have gone in the Big Casino Win thread, but we're low-key.
What was the win amount, and was the bet made in a casino? That will determine where this belongs.
The wagers were offshore, and the amounts were decent.
I really owe you a drink now Red. Although I haven't bet sports in years, when I saw that middle you bet I made some inquiries with a friend who does bet sports. The numbers were not as good as yours but we also executed a middle at -16 and plus 24.5. (and a few other lines a point or 2 around that--he spread it out as best he could). I feel we were lucky that despite the lopsided win, they didn't keep running Lynch in the second half. No pictures--unless my friend gets his faced kicked in-lol.Originally Posted by redietz
We need pictures, screen shots, copies of payments made, sworn statements, and IRS corroboration.Originally Posted by redietz
What's that phrase? Quid pro quo?
Well, since offshores have meticulous accounting, I do have screen shots, but that's okay.
Regnis, glad you did well. That -16 was really good. I think Pete Carroll is a smart dude. Once he knew the game was wrapped and Lynch was not an MVP candidate, he does what he usually does -- gets his big bucks RB out of there. He'll put his starting safeties on special teams (which I like) but Lynch isn't running one down he doesn't need. We also got lucky that Moreno got dinged or he might have gotten a few more carries.
Rob--best I can do is a sworn statement from my mother stating what a nice jewish boy i am.Originally Posted by Rob.Singer
I just want to make the observation about the coin toss. I've written about this before: I have never seen an analysis of the weight distribution of the Super Bowl coins which are used for the flip. These are minted by a private company and copies are sold to the public.
But if they are like US Coins minted by the US Government then the obverse (heads side) is heavier than the reverse (tails side) and the coin landing tails up has a slight edge.
About a year ago I did write to the private mint about the specifics of the weighting of the coin but they did not respond.
Buying the coin from NFL.com http://www.nflshop.com/Collectibles/...Tone_Flip_Coin
Highland Mint http://www.highlandmint.com
Tough crowd. You just had someone post a middle attempt -- and just one middle attempt -- that won. Regnis can help me out here, but it appears to be the only Super Bowl middle opportunity that won, and lo and behold, you had it posted on your forum, for free, days in advance. Yet the chatter here isn't about a real honest-to-goodness middle, but about Rob's latest video poker jackpot. Thank God I'm not trolling for clients or my feelings would be hurt (see -- I used the word "troll" correctly there).
Regarding Rob -- to plagiarize a phrase from "Now You See Me" -- "the closer you look, the less you see."
Redietz--I feel ya. That middle was a major coup. Maybe some of the non sports bettors don't understand. But I haven't bet sports in about 15 years (a visit from the vice squad one Sunday afternoon convinced me to stick to legal forms of wagering) and when Red pointed out this play, I un-retired and was all over it--and yes--for major dinero.
And yes you really can get your face kicked in if making these wagers with bookies rather than in a legal venue. That is why my friend spread the bets out all over town. You could not bet that large on any day other than super bowl.
redietz, I don't know what a "middle" is... and I know less about sports gambling. Before you get too frustrated with the "rest of us" why don't you explain what it is that is so great.
Alan--ordinarily in sports you bet 1 side--i.e. 1 team in a game. So you bet Denver or Seattle, and either lay the points or take the points. If you lose, you lose your bet plus the juice (usually 10%).
Redietz spotted an opportunity to bet both sides of the prop bet on yardage differential between Lynch and Moreno. He bet Lynch -17.5 yards, and Moreno plus 28.5 yards. This means if the yardage differential were between 17.5 and 28.5 (infavor of Lynch--i.e. in the "middle"), he would win both bets. So if Lynch had 20 more yards than Moreno, Lynch -17.5 wins. But Moreno plus 28.5 also won. The risk is the juice as 1 side had to win. But here, both sides win and you get all the money.
Red's lines werent the standard 10% juice, but I didn't want to complicate the explanation.
This doesn't come up often as the point spread doesn't vary by more than a couple points usually. Here, with that big of a spread, it begged you to middle it. Some people middle or side any football game where the line straddles 7 or 3 or any common score. A side just means if the line is 7, and you also find an 8, you bet -7 and + 8 and hope it lands on the 7. The -7 is a push, and the + 8 is a win. Again, you risk the juice on the loss to catch a middle or at least a side.
I'll just add a bit to what regnis said. Basically, with a middle, you are trying to win two wagers while risking the vigorish/juice for just one. In stock market terms, a pure middle shot is basically arbitrage, with the juice replacing brokers' fees in the equation. This wasn't pure, as there was a bias in one direction.
In this case, using $100 as a unit, the situation was this: I was risking 1 Unit to win roughly 3/4 Unit (therefore -135) on Lynch. That means I was risking $100 to win $75 on Lynch -17 1/2. Then I took Moreno +28 1/2, risking $100 to win $110 (therefore +110). The worst that could happen was I lose $100 on the second wager and win $75 on the first. That would have netted -$25. Or I could have won the second wager for $110 and lost the first for $100, netting +$10. Or the third possibility, which is what happened, is that I could win both wagers. That would happen if Lynch had between 18 and 28 yards more than Moreno. He wound up with 22 more yards.
Regnis outlined the rest above.
Thanks for the explanation.
Does this mean the bookmakers/oddsmakers erred? And I take it that these types of opportunities are rare?
There are literally hundreds of prop bets for a Super Bowl, and the numbers change from when they are introduced to kickoff. This wasn't really any kind of error. It just means two different books either (1) took two different positions or (2) one of them took a fair amount of money on one side, resulting in a line shift and creating the opportunity.
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