I hate double double bonus poker

[Dan Druff]

So I decided to give that 99.96% 10-6 DDB machine at the Rio a serious try.

It's a $1 3/5/10 play, so I elected the least variance model by doing 3-play, meaning it was $15 per hand.

I played $4665 worth of coin-in (311 hands of three each), and lost $1595. Ouch! I only got a 65.81% return on a 99.96% machine!

While 311 hands isn't that many, I felt I did spectacularly bad, and cursed my horrid luck.

Then I got home and realized this wasn't quite so uncommon.

Double double bonus is a very high variance game. Make it a 3-play, and it's even higher variance.

The variance comes from the reduction of 2-pair from 2x to 1x, and making up for it with higher-paying quads. This ends up increasing the importance of hitting quads to a level I don't enjoy.

I calculated that the approximate return when NOT hitting quads or better is 79%. Yuck.

You also need to hit your fair share of full houses -- basically one for every 92 hands you play. That accounts for 10.86% of your return.

If you go 92 hands without a full house or better, your return is 68-69%.

So in my 311 hands of three at a time, I needed 10 full houses, and I got 2. I got zero quads or better.

This put my expected return at about 71%, and indeed I got about 66% -- close.

Also, since the tier credits are reduced (1 per $50), I only earned 93 tiers!


Conclusion: This game has too much variance, and would require 1.25 million dollars worth of coin-in to optimally reach 7 Stars. No thanks.

[Alan Mendelson]

I am surprised that you of all people would play a game that requires $50 coin in for one tier credit.

Question: Wouldn't the ten-hand version have the least variance?

[Count Room]

Dan: The irony might be that since you're now quitting Rio's DDB game the very next few sessions you would have played otherwise are the ones raining quads.

[quahaug]

You should have made special plays. You are a weak player.

[Alan Mendelson]

Dan: The irony might be that since you're now quitting Rio's DDB game the very next few sessions you would have played otherwise are the ones raining quads.

This might be very true. 311 plays is not enough for hitting quads. I think a quad comes once every 400. It sounds a lot like Dan's experience with Dream Card... he didn't do well in his short experience but look at all of the jackpot photos that have been posted since Dan's short session.

[Count Room]

I very rarely play multi-line games, but my hazy recollection tells me that there might be an option to "BET MAX" "PLAY 1 HAND" if you don't want to risk $15 per deal on a high-variance game?

I've certainly played enough 9/6 DDB to know how wacky it is.

Tons of forgettable sessions with few or no quads.

But I also had a session where I had 4 Aces W/kicker twice in THREE HANDS (4A w/K, then a losing hand, then another 4A w/K). Also once had quad 3's twice in a row (one with kickers).

[arcimede$]

I am surprised that you of all people would play a game that requires $50 coin in for one tier credit.

Question: Wouldn't the ten-hand version have the least variance?

At any given denomination a multi-play game is higher variance, the more hands the higher the variance. That is due to the fact that your result is more dependent on the dealt cards. However, it is lower variance than playing one hand at the same total bet.

[regnis]

For what it's worth, and my recollection may be wrong, but I believe Rob stated somewhere in his "system" that if you are going to play a multi hand game, it should be 5-way. I don't recall why other than he felt 3-way didn't offer enough advantage and 10 way was too costly. Don't hold me to it but I seem to remember him saying this.

[slingshot]

For what it's worth, and my recollection may be wrong, but I believe Rob stated somewhere in his "system" that if you are going to play a multi hand game, it should be 5-way. I don't recall why other than he felt 3-way didn't offer enough advantage and 10 way was too costly. Don't hold me to it but I seem to remember him saying this.

That's correct-it was in his multi-play strategies from VPtruth. After 100 hands and the full houses not filling,etc. I would have switched machines. I'm just sayin'.......