"I Am a Card Counter"

[FrankScoblete]

I’d like to thank the Alan for allowing me to occasionally refer to my web site and books.

My new book “I Am a Card Counter: Inside the World of Advantage-Play Blackjack” has just been published. It is a no-holds barred description of my 25 years of advantage blackjack play (11 with my wife as my teammate).

Check it out: http://tinyurl.com/kv8ekla

[nearthetop]

I'm sorry if I'm a little late to this, but in those 25 years of playing can you say if you're a winning, or losing, player? I say that because I HAVE heard of you as a book author although I've not read any of your offerings. Casinos such as where I've worked and I know at most others, do not allow counters to play even if they're net losers. They especially look at known players and anyone who writes or advertises about being counters, and they get stopped quickly. It's been impossible for such counters to win or even play for the past ten or fifteen years, and because black jack is such a drawn out grind, it's really only a game of fun anymore.

[FrankScoblete]

All your questions are answered in the book. No, I am not just plugging it. Send me a personal message with your home address and I'll send you a free copy.

[Alan Mendelson]

I know little about this but I've been told you can't tell who is a skilled card counter who bets wisely so he doesn't tip his hand... so to speak.

[nearthetop]

Frank S., I'm a little confused in that your answer wandered into thinking I was looking for a free book. I did however ask a question I thought was pretty mild, and gave some casino perspective along with it.
EDIT: I was just discussing Frank's name with a former colleague, and she told me that you have presented yourself as a craps, black jack, & roulette gambling expert over the years, and that your books some way try to make players believe craps and roulette can be beaten with your systems. I expect dice control is part of this. So no, I definitely am not interested in a free book, and I understand why you're pushing it on internet sites.

Alan M., casino industry pit bosses and those who work the eyes in the sky, are generally very competent in spotting card counters. Whether these players win or lose is not relevant. The thinking is that they theoretically could have a player's advantage, so at each casino's disgression they can be stopped, and every casino does this. My training taught that even at a 1% edge, some people who put millions and tens of millions or more in play either alone (whales) or combined, can cost hundreds of thousands or much more.

These days though it's so much harder to be an effective counter, with the multiple decks not used very deeply into the shoe, constant shuffle machines, and even by lowering the 2-card black jack odds. Profitable black jack play is basically a thing of the past. That's why we're always reading about past , rather than present, experiences.

[Alan Mendelson]

I have a friend who is a counter and gets away with it by not increasing his bet by much when the count is in his favor. When it turns against him he leaves.

[nearthetop]

I have a friend who is a counter and gets away with it by not increasing his bet by much when the count is in his favor. When it turns against him he leaves.

That could be a fair method of not being singled out, but it also means he is not playing the game with any edge.

[Alan Mendelson]

I don't know the math, but here's what my friend did when I was with him at a casino: he played the table minimum until the count turned in his favor and then he doubled his bet and played that till the count reversed and then he left. He told me he made money doing this.

I did play with him one time when we were both at a $5 table. All of a sudden he increased his bet to $100. The dealer called out something, I think she said "chip play" and a floorman stepped over. My friend won that hand, then the floorman said to him "I can't let you do that again." So he went back to minimum bets with a double bet when the count was right.

[Dan Druff]

Frank S., I'm a little confused in that your answer wandered into thinking I was looking for a free book. I did however ask a question I thought was pretty mild, and gave some casino perspective along with it.
EDIT: I was just discussing Frank's name with a former colleague, and she told me that you have presented yourself as a craps, black jack, & roulette gambling expert over the years, and that your books some way try to make players believe craps and roulette can be beaten with your systems. I expect dice control is part of this. So no, I definitely am not interested in a free book, and I understand why you're pushing it on internet sites.

Alan M., casino industry pit bosses and those who work the eyes in the sky, are generally very competent in spotting card counters. Whether these players win or lose is not relevant. The thinking is that they theoretically could have a player's advantage, so at each casino's disgression they can be stopped, and every casino does this. My training taught that even at a 1% edge, some people who put millions and tens of millions or more in play either alone (whales) or combined, can cost hundreds of thousands or much more.

These days though it's so much harder to be an effective counter, with the multiple decks not used very deeply into the shoe, constant shuffle machines, and even by lowering the 2-card black jack odds. Profitable black jack play is basically a thing of the past. That's why we're always reading about past , rather than present, experiences.

You are absolutely correct.

I am also a card counter, but I don't even bother playing blackjack anymore, because the game rules have been tightened and they are especially vigilant regarding ejecting card counters.

It is also quite easy to spot a card counter if you're looking closely, no matter how good his "cover".

Team play can provide some distraction and cover against getting caught, but even that has been clamped down upon in modern times, which is why you really don't hear about successful blackjack card counting teams in the 2010s.

I knew a guy who was making $400k/year card counting through the early 2000s, but even he gave up on it over the past 10 years or so.

The world of card counting can be fascinating to read about, but any author purporting to be currently actively doing so should be taken with a grain of salt.

Individuals can still count cards and get away with it under the right circumstances, but it requires short sessions of play, staying away from high limit betting, and basically no real expectation of making a living from it, as you won't get enough hands in to overcome the high variance.

[Dan Druff]

If you are still interested in learning about card counting (including how to do it), go to this thread:

http://pokerfraudalert.com/forum/sho...ing-Thread-***

I wrote this piece about 4 years ago.

[Alan Mendelson]

Individuals can still count cards and get away with it under the right circumstances, but it requires short sessions of play, staying away from high limit betting, and basically no real expectation of making a living from it, as you won't get enough hands in to overcome the high variance.

But isn't that what we all want? Just a little bit of an edge? I don't think there are many who walk into a casino with the expectation of replacing their full-time day jobs. I think most of us would like to walk into a casino and get a "good gamble" and if we happen to win a little be very happy with that.

I think most gamblers would be happy with going to Vegas and either "breaking even" or losing just enough to pay for the equivalent of the hotel and meals that were comped. That for me -- losing just enough to cover the hotel and comped meals and shows -- makes for a delightful weekend.

So if I were a blackjack player and a little counting might help me to meet my goal that would be just fine and dandy. I don't need to replace my day job.

[nearthetop]

Right, not many people have high expectations when they gamble. But those who have counted in the past did. That's why the industry started to stop them. Today, most gamblers have your mindset, to lose just enough to have made the visit worthwhile, or to win a little and maybe, with a lot of luck, a lot. The problem for these players is that most of them lose a lot instead of a little, and the Total Rewards and every other card program is designed for the casinos to achieve that goal.

If I were still a CET employee and came across this forum in my prime of loyalty to them, I'd report back about a small segment of highly rated players who we've been very successful with. I'm certain they would apply my thoughts across the board and some stiff in the front office would get one of those sick bonuses they hand out even when hemorrhaging money. I've gotten a little bit off topic, but you know what I'm saying.

[Alan Mendelson]

I've gotten a little bit off topic, but you know what I'm saying.

Yes, we are quite familiar with this.

[Dan Druff]

But isn't that what we all want? Just a little bit of an edge? I don't think there are many who walk into a casino with the expectation of replacing their full-time day jobs. I think most of us would like to walk into a casino and get a "good gamble" and if we happen to win a little be very happy with that.

I think most gamblers would be happy with going to Vegas and either "breaking even" or losing just enough to pay for the equivalent of the hotel and meals that were comped. That for me -- losing just enough to cover the hotel and comped meals and shows -- makes for a delightful weekend.

So if I were a blackjack player and a little counting might help me to meet my goal that would be just fine and dandy. I don't need to replace my day job.

I'm not saying that learning how to count is completely useless.

I'm saying that you can't play +EV blackjack for any length of time these days without getting barred. Basically cooks the fun out of it.

And anyone who is writing books claiming to making a lot of money in blackjack these days is probably lying.

BTW, you can't really do "a little counting", because inaccurate card counting helps you very little. You need to be fairly accurate to significantly decrease the casino edge (and VERY accurate to be +EV in the game), and doing that will get you kicked out.

That's the problem.

I never attempted to play blackjack professionally. Like you, Alan, my main desire was just to have fun gambling while not giving the casino a mathematical edge over me. Unfortunately, the casinos didn't exactly want to cooperate with that.

[Alan Mendelson]

I have one good card counting story... and it happened with card craps. This was back in the early days of card craps at Casino Morongo near Palm Springs. They had two shoes -- red and blue -- with cards Ace thru six, shuffled. The boxman would pull one card from each shoe to simulate the roll of the dice.

One night they went through the entire shoe(s) without a 7 out. That gave the players a chance to keep count on which cards had been "played." Back in the those days it was OK to have pen and paper and keep track. About three-quarters of the way through it was obvious that few small cards were left, and near the end of the shoe the savvy players loaded up on 10, 11, 12 and they were hitting wildly.

[Count Room]

I'm not saying that learning how to count is completely useless.

I'm saying that you can't play +EV blackjack for any length of time these days without getting barred. Basically cooks the fun out of it.

I never attempted to play blackjack professionally. Like you, Alan, my main desire was just to have fun gambling while not giving the casino a mathematical edge over me. Unfortunately, the casinos didn't exactly want to cooperate with that.

What about shuffle tracking? I know the shuffle machines quash those types of players, but there still may be limited opportunities in that area. It's also easier to camouflage it.

[nearthetop]

If anyone's interested, this author Scoblete is being ripped to shreds on a forum called WizardofVegas, supposedly run by a well known mathematician. I am not one to get saddled down by many of the details, but it looks like lots of posters on that forum are, and they seem to know what they are talking about in spades.

I believe Scoblete made a serious mistake in trying to plug his work there and maybe elsewhere, especially if he's made a living trying to sell gambling systems on roulette, black jack, and craps for years. I read somewhere here that he likes to travel. NOW would positively be a good time for some of that. IMHO

[Alan Mendelson]

I want you all to know that Frank is having a problem getting on the forum to post. I notified Dan. I am telling you this because Frank wants to respond but can't. I don't know why Frank can't get back on and Dan is the guy who runs the technical side here. I only hope that the problem gets fixed quickly.

If necessary I will get Frank's responses by email and post them if that becomes necessary.

[Dan Druff]

I messaged you, Alan. Hopefully this fixes his problem.

[FrankScoblete]

I’ve been having trouble getting on this site which is one of the three sites I enjoy visiting.

So let me get down to it:

For Nearthetop:

Blackjack has become far harder to beat with card counting than in the 1990s and early 2000s, at least beat with respectable wins. There are other advantage-play methods that can be used at blackjack along with card counting and I have those in my new book; the ones I used and one I tried to use but just wasn’t good enough to do it.

As far as this “expert” stuff --- nowhere have I said that roulette is a beatable game nowadays. When I wrote my roulette book in 1996 there were some “biased wheels” around. In short, roulette for almost all intents and purposes is a random, negative expectation game. I doubt there are any biased wheels around today.

So my advice for players playing random games is to reduce the number of decisions you experience --- and bet as low as you can that still gives you a thrill. My “systems” for negative games all fall into that parameter. My “system” as you call it is merely to make the best bets at the game and play fewer decisions. Nothing radical about that.

Yes, at craps I know that dice control (or as Alan calls it dice influencing) is real and can be done. I have mentioned the two tests that can prove it can be done in other posts.

I have a new craps book coming out in May of 2015 about my quarter century controlling the dice. However, my craps books don’t give silly betting systems --- I recommend the best bets and then only make one bet per shooter. I also recommend the 5-Count, a way to reduce exposure to random rollers. A 5-Count player will bet on only 43 percent of the random rolls and not bet on 57 percent.

So at craps, you use the 5-Count to diminish the number of decisions you bet on against random rollers and it is a single bet when you do. Making one bet at craps against random rollers might be considered radical since most craps players like to make several bets. Sadly, every bet you make is the equivalent of a separate game. One bet is one game against the casino. Two bets are two games against the casino. Three bets…and so on.

Now, I didn’t think you were angling for a free book. I wanted to give it to you. I have done this with many posters on the three web sites I enjoy going to. After all, the posters make the web sites and I enjoy what they have to say --- so why not send them a free book?

As Alan or anyone who knows the gambling book market will tell you, I do not need to scrounge around for sales of my books. I Am a Card Counter will sell six figures. I’d still be happy to send you a copy and I think then you will see that I am not a “systems” salesman in the pejorative sense. I also played blackjack for serious money.

Yes, on another site I am indeed being hammered by some of the posters. Some of the attacks are merely sarcasm which works for those who already agree with them but alienates those who don’t already agree with them. I think it is fine to have such back-and-forths but at a certain point everyone starts spinning their wheels. I have no problem with legitimate criticism --- of course, I have to decide what is legitimate and what isn’t. That’s true of all of us.

If anyone on this thread would like a free copy of my new book just email me your name and home address and I’ll get one out to you. My email is fscobe@optonline.net.