Frank, I'm glad we got you back. Thanks Dan for getting the "fix" in. (Wow, first time I ever publicly thanked someone for getting a fix in.)
Frank, this question isn't necessarily related to your book, but here goes: at best, what will the ability to count cards do for you when you play blackjack? If you master card counting how much can it help you given multi-deck shoes or even playing a double-deck game?
Everything depends on two things --- the penetration into the deck(s) and how much you bet in low and high counts. If I am aggressive and go one unit to 12 units in a six deck game, given normal rules, I would probably earn about an average bet an hour (I'm guessing here Alan). If I played a double deck game and used that spread I would make more.
You'd want penetration of 80 percent (or more) if you can get it.
You will never get away with a 1-12 unit spread these days, ESPECIALLY at double-deck. Even at 6-decker games, you are unlikely to get away with a 12x spread, unless your base is really small (like $5) or the staff is really asleep at the switch.
The one exception is what I like to call the "pissed off all-in" bet. It works like this:
Say you are spreading $25-$150, meaning a 6x spread. The count gets really high, and you're near the end prior to shuffle (meaning the "true count" is also very high). If you have been losing, and you have something like $300 in front of you, you can just grab the whole stack, slam it on the table, and announce, "I'm all in!"
This makes it look less like you're betting big because of the count, and more because you are frustrated about losing and just betting it all on one hand, poker-style.
However, you obviously can't do this too many times in one session, and you can only pull this off convincingly if losing. You also need the right amount in front of you at the moment. If you have $2000 in front of you in this example, you won't want to do that, unless you don't care at all about variance!
Anyway, normally 1-12 spreads will get you ejected quickly. You also have to beware of not abruptly raising your bets too quickly when you see a ton of small cards roll out. So if you are betting $25, and then the hand sees cards of 2-3-5-3-2-5-6-2-4-3-7, and then you want to bet $200 next hand, you should restrain yourself and just move up to $100, and raise it again the next hand provided the count doesn't change.
Check out my poker forum, and weekly internet radio show at http://pokerfraudalert.com
Also Frank, you say the book will "sell 6 figures". Is that over 100,000 books, or $100,000 worth?
Because seriously, if you have a way to sell that many books, I am interested in writing some gambling books of my own, and you can help me sell them for a cut of the profits.
Check out my poker forum, and weekly internet radio show at http://pokerfraudalert.com
Copies.
Most of my books have excellent sales although a few have been bombs (in England if a book bombs it's a good thing). Most gambling writers do not have sales of more than a couple of thousand books (if that). You would think with 54 million casino gamblers in the United States most of them would want to read a book about it; not so.
I would say Dan, don't quit your day job for book writing. I have been fortunate that my writing caught on right from the start. I hope I have the same good fortune with my non-gambling books such as Confessions of a Wayward Catholic.
I'm surprised to hear that books are still bought, let alone printed. I thought tablets and the internet killed printed books.
Yes, I use "books" as a way to say it. Kindle and ebooks are a part of my sales now. Many of my past books are not on Kindle but all of my current ones are.
Alan, email me your home address so I can send you a book. You will note I took one of your recommendations.
Frank, I don't fault you for trying to make some money on your books. Not at all. It's just reading through everything here, I find there's only a few experts on the games you discuss, and on the other forum there are many. I wouldn't think it wise to dismiss what their critics are saying.
One poster here mentioned that counting these days is of no real value if you're trying to make decent money because of the reasons mentioned, and I doubt people can get away with it from what I've seen anyway. Those of us in the casino industry also KNOW dice control is a simple charade whose method is sold to players for a profit. And there's really nothing wrong with that either, unless people get hurt by it. Where I've worked, shooters who looked the part were stopped, not due to a fear of the casino losing money, but out of respect for those at the table who knew what they were doing.
nearthetop,
If you work in the casino industry please, please tell the entire state of Mississippi, also Bellagio and a dozen more casinos in LV, and the ones who go crazy in AC when I play craps not to ban me because this stuff doesn't work. (AC can't ban me but some of the casinos are really nasty --- Trump Plaza for one.)
Joking aside, I would never sell something just for money if I thought it didn't work. When my next craps book comes out next May it is the dice equivalent of "I Am a Card Counter." I will send you a free copy --- I know you aren't angling for that --- and I think you will find it interesting.
Yes, today's blackjack games are nowhere near as good as those when I started a quarter century ago.
Hey... would you do me a favor? At your next job would you stop the random shooters? I've lost too much money at craps betting on random shooters.Originally Posted by nearthetop
Alan, play the 5-Count and you'll only be betting on 43 percent of them but you'll still have the excitement of the game. Give it a try.
Those of us in the casino industry also KNOW dice control is a simple charade whose method is sold to players for a profit. And there's really nothing wrong with that either, unless people get hurt by it. Where I've worked, shooters who looked the part were stopped, not due to a fear of the casino losing money, but out of respect for those at the table who knew what they were doing.[/QUOTE]
Nearthetop,
I dont understand what you mean, please explain. Dice influencers were banned, but not because they were successful?
I think dannyj has a good question about this:
So... stopping the "dice controllers" was the casino's attempt at consumer protection?Originally Posted by nearthetop
Frank S., no casino I no of, especially within the CET conglomerate, bans anybody because they card count or play mind games with dice. Casinos stop these people for various reasons, but they do not ban them from the casino.
It's a common event in the gaming industry for players who write books about gambling and sell services etc., to claim certain systems work. Their very next move is to claim being banned, and I do know that does not happen. If they never came up with the idea then no harm, no foul. But for those who do cook up unsubstantiated systems and who claim to have won because of them, that tends to harm others. I expect that's why those who know better on various forums chop you down.
Please explain this:
How were they "stopped" and what triggered the action to stop them? Is it because they took too long to set the dice, or because they were winning, or were they spinning around three times before throwing the dice, or they were chanting psalms of witchcraft?Originally Posted by nearthetop
Nearthetop,Originally Posted by dannyj
I dont understand what you mean, please explain. Dice influencers were banned, but not because they were successful?[/QUOTE]
I have never known or heard of anyone accused of dice influencing who was stopped, to have been stopped because of beating the house on a continuous basis, in over ten years. Card counters do not win on a regular basis, but we've stopped them frequently, and that's because they have the theoretical mathematical advantage over the house if they do it well.This is proven by the numbers. We've looked at these dice influencers more as game disruptors/showoffs/gamers trying to show up the pit team, while they have no proven edge at all. When you think about it, whoever came up with the idea would have never made it public and sold it if it had any validity to it. Frank said it, gaming books just don't sell that well. That's why my own personal belief is that those who sell these things to other gamblers are really trying to make up for their own losses, and nothing more.
Alan M., I'm with you on the random shooters creating a bad atmosphere for serious players. But casinos generally do not interfere because these folks have a record of laying down more money than others at the table, on avg., for the amount of time they are there.
I've never worked in a pit but these things come up at meetings, and I have watched the games on closed circuit in the security rooms. I know one way they spot influencers is by the amount of time they take because how they line up the die every time and how they try not to be recognized as they aim. Then there's where and how they shoot. There's also their betting patterns and habits.Originally Posted by Alan Mendelson
From what you wrote I think the issue might be the time they take to set dice and to make the throw. Frankly, those players aren't good dice influencers. Those who really know how to throw "influenced dice" can set the dice in less than two seconds, then begin their toss and release the dice. I for one can visualize how to rotate the dice as they are pushed to me by the stickman and no one can ever accuse me of delaying the game.
Random shooters who shake the dice in their hand, chant some phrase about winning, or have their girlfriend blow on the dice delay the game more than a seasoned dice influencer who knows what dice setting and a controlled throw is all about.
Frankly, if your management wants to speed up the craps action, it should take the dice away from the random shooters.
I have played used dice control in craps and card counting in blackjack throughout the country for 25 years and nearthetop you are incorrect in your assessment. I have been trespassed, I have been banned (last one was Bellagio) I have had dangerous situations where casinos have taken action that terrified me. I know of advantage-players who have been taken into the "back rooms" (often the basement) and handcuffed to pipes.
Secondly, I do not make up stories to sell books. I don't lie or exaggerate incidents. Your assessment of me is mere speculation based on whim or, to give you the benefit of my doubt, based on someone you know who does such unscrupulous things.
I have never done anything illegal in a casino and I have never argued or caused a ruckus
Your idea that there is no such thing as a dice controller and that card counters are tolerated by corporate casinos is also off base. Big companies are just as bad as single owner casinos. Tunica casinos started to go downhill when Harrah's took over.
Now, I do not take more than a couple of seconds to set the dice. By the time the dice settle and the stickman calls the number maybe 8-10 seconds have passed. I did a study of how long a true controlled shooter takes to start and finish a throw and how long random shooters do the same. The controlled shooters took no longer than the random shooters. Mere dice setters will often take much longer but dice setters are not controlled shooters.
I have to think your experiences in casinos have been limited by the fact that you work in a casino and may have worked only in several. Maybe the casinos you've worked in are what you say they are. But my friends in the casino business, even those who have worked many casinos, have a very limited view of the industry. Indeed most have no idea of what is going on in the casinos in their own venues. They deal the games, take their breaks, enjoy their conversations which rarely have anything to do with casinos and go home when their shift ends.
Let me send you a copy of my book I Am A Card Counter where I name names and incidents in Vegas, Mississippi and Atlantic City. I think you'll find it interesting.
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