Playing according to long term math

[Alan Mendelson]

The one thing that I really like about Rob's strategy... and I think Arc will agree with this... is the idea about stopping when you hit a big winner. BUT as Arc and everyone else has pointed out... after that big winner do you really stop? If you come back to the casino the next week or the next month you haven't "stopped" have you?

So let's move to part #2 of Rob's strategy (as I understand it): you can have "a profit" within sessions even if you don't have a big winner and if you stop playing once you have that "profit" (however small it is) you can still come out ahead over the long run. And there are those who will disagree with that -- and they'll say there are sessions when you never have even a one-dollar profit and you just lose from the get-go. And yes, I have had sessions where I lost from the first play and never caught up, but I think there have been more sessions where at some point I had some kind of a profit -- even a tiny profit. Unfortunately, we only know about those "profit points" and "highest profit points" when we look in the rear view mirror. The machine's don't have a message screen that flash "you are at your high point, cash out now."

[arcimede$]

Alan, our results are determined by the frequency of the various hands we see over time. With random games the expected frequencies are easy to compute. Over time we should approach the expected frequency of each particular result. So, the question becomes, how can starting and stopping at any given time change those frequencies? In order to win on a negative game you need to hit winning hands at a frequency that is higher than expected from a random distribution. Why would this happen simply because you decided to stop when you were ahead on a given day?

You have posted results in the past where you didn't stop when you were ahead and went on to win even more. You seem to forget about those days. While they must happen less often than days you lose after being ahead simply because of game variance and return, they still happen and compensate for those days where you got ahead and then lost.

It all gets down to basic randomness. If you play enough you will approach the expected frequencies of each result and that will determine your overall results. The precise time you end any particular session is not going to change this reality.

[Count Room]

In order to win on a negative game you need to hit winning hands at a frequency that is higher than expected from a random distribution.

This is where timing the DEAL/DRAW button comes into play. The lower the %'age return of a game, the more skillful you must become at those button presses over the long term. Are you up to the challenge?

[slingshot]

I can't believe you guys can't comprehend the strategy but yet you're sure you can control dice, count cards, and push the button on a machine at just the right time. Rob's strategies are so simple and adaptable to any bankroll. How about this? You play 200 credits of the required 400 and hit 4 J's. You've won 50 credits and a win goal. This happens again but maybe you only win 30 credits. BUT, on the 3rd session 4 2's w/kicker and suddenly 800 credits appear and you're on the way home. And you didn't have to GUESS when to stop.

[Alan Mendelson]

A couple of things:

First, about the "skills" of gambling...

Card counting is a true skill.

Dice control, at least theoretically, is a skill (I doubt anyone can really do it with much consistency).

Button pushing at video poker is impossible because there is no way to judge when is the right time to push the button -- because we can't see the cards zipping by in order to decide when to push.

And what happened with me Sunday night?

So, I had $250 of free play at Rincon and a friend wanted to know what "advantage play" was all about, so my friend went with me to Rincon to watch me run my $250 of free play ONCE through an 8/5 Bonus game. (By the way, half of the Nash family was at the machine next to me, and I was not on my favorite machine which was occupied.)

I played my $250 on the $1 game through one-time and cashed out $435 thanks to quad 10s for $125, plus one full house for $40, and a lot of pairs and trips.

Question for Arc: what were the odds that running $250 through a $1 machine once that I would do this well? As I said to my friend... I didn't expect such a great result. I expected perhaps a $200 cash-out.

[slingshot]

A couple of things:

First, about the "skills" of gambling...

Card counting is a true skill.

Dice control, at least theoretically, is a skill (I doubt anyone can really do it with much consistency).

Button pushing at video poker is impossible because there is no way to judge when is the right time to push the button -- because we can't see the cards zipping by in order to decide when to push.

And what happened with me Sunday night?

So, I had $250 of free play at Rincon and a friend wanted to know what "advantage play" was all about, so my friend went with me to Rincon to watch me run my $250 of free play ONCE through an 8/5 Bonus game. (By the way, half of the Nash family was at the machine next to me, and I was not on my favorite machine which was occupied.)

I played my $250 on the $1 game through one-time and cashed out $435 thanks to quad 10s for $125, plus one full house for $40, and a lot of pairs and trips.

Question for Arc: what were the odds that running $250 through a $1 machine once that I would do this well? As I said to my friend... I didn't expect such a great result. I expected perhaps a $200 cash-out.

Yeah, on blackjack. I used to play with a couple of guys at the golf course. EVERYBODY wanted to be the banker because they usually wound up with most of the money. There were no hard and fast rules about betting, so I took a bunch of loose change and waited until the 10 count was most promising and piled on the change and ended up breaking the bank. Of course, there was only one deck and the guys weren't aware enough to change the deck more frequently.

[Rob.Singer]

Alan, there are no meaningful "odds" of hitting a certain cash out figure with $250 in freeplay run thru once on a dollar machine. That's the same thing as asking how you can expect do on a dollar machine for 10 minutes with $250. It's all short term stuff, and long term theory does not apply to short term stuff. That's why I came up with my strategy to play in the short term only, where each and every session ends when you leave with an attained pre-determined win or loss goal, and you leave. And when you return, you begin a new session all over again, which just like individual hands, is 100% unrelated to or affected by any that have come before, or any that are yet to come.

Short term play equates to reality; long term relies upon theory. When players finally comprehend that truth and accept that playing video poker is a real event with real results TODAY because that is the only outcome aspect every player really cares about, they will become better players because of it.

[Count Room]

A couple of things:

Button pushing at video poker is impossible because there is no way to judge when is the right time to push the button -- because we can't see the cards zipping by in order to decide when to push.

This is negative thinking, Alan. If we're going to try to elevate our negative EV game into positive EV, shouldn't we at least have some initial positive thinking that the button can be pushed at the right time more often?

[Alan Mendelson]

This is negative thinking, Alan. If we're going to try to elevate our negative EV game into positive EV, shouldn't we at least have some initial positive thinking that the button can be pushed at the right time more often?

Before I can even consider that this is a legitimate question, would you please tell me how you could possibly determine when it is best to push the button?

Since there is no "window" to see the RNG "shuffling" the cards, are you relying on psychic skills?

[Alan Mendelson]

Alan, there are no meaningful "odds" of hitting a certain cash out figure with $250 in freeplay run thru once on a dollar machine. That's the same thing as asking how you can expect do on a dollar machine for 10 minutes with $250. It's all short term stuff, and long term theory does not apply to short term stuff. That's why I came up with my strategy to play in the short term only, where each and every session ends when you leave with an attained pre-determined win or loss goal, and you leave. And when you return, you begin a new session all over again, which just like individual hands, is 100% unrelated to or affected by any that have come before, or any that are yet to come.

Short term play equates to reality; long term relies upon theory. When players finally comprehend that truth and accept that playing video poker is a real event with real results TODAY because that is the only outcome aspect every player really cares about, they will become better players because of it.

Again, you make no sense. How do you determine a short term win goal (or loss limit) without theory? In other words, you must look at the payback (paytable) on a machine to give yourself a chance at what to pick as your win goal or loss limit. You cannot dismiss long term theory even in the short run.

[Count Room]

Before I can even consider that this is a legitimate question, would you please tell me how you could possibly determine when it is best to push the button?

Since there is no "window" to see the RNG "shuffling" the cards, are you relying on psychic skills?

I was admittedly half-kidding here, Alan, and I'm not currently sure how or even if such a feat can be done. I do think it's wise to keep an open mind towards new possibilities, though.

Just because we can't now see or know that it can be done doesn't preclude the possibility that such a feat could be done in the future. For instance, even though Neanderthal Man couldn't envision cars being built or the internet being used, it didn't mean those advancements wouldn't occur.

[Alan Mendelson]

I was admittedly half-kidding here, Alan, and I'm not currently sure how or even if such a feat can be done. I do think it's wise to keep an open mind towards new possibilities, though.

Just because we can't now see or know that it can be done doesn't preclude the possibility that such a feat could be done in the future. For instance, even though Neanderthal Man couldn't envision cars being built or the internet being used, it didn't mean those advancements wouldn't occur.

I would rather we deal with reality here, and leave psychic abilities to a different discussion/forum. Since there is no way that is now known to determine the random shuffle of a continuous shuffle machine it must be a psychic or supernatural ability and perhaps with the exception of one poster here, the rest of us are mere mortals without that skill.

[Rob.Singer]

Again, you make no sense. How do you determine a short term win goal (or loss limit) without theory? In other words, you must look at the payback (paytable) on a machine to give yourself a chance at what to pick as your win goal or loss limit. You cannot dismiss long term theory even in the short run.

Because you simply won't allow yourself to understand it. Here's a common REAL example of me playing a session of 25c thru $2 ARTT. My required bankroll for a session is $800 which is also my loss goal; my win goal is $100 minimum. I need 2 games--one being BP, the other an advanced BP game such as SDBP. Many times the PAY TABLES are different, BUT THE WIN & LOSS GOALS ALWAYS REMAIN EXACTLY THE SAME! Paytable theory means absolutely nothing. The loss goal is simply a function of the starting bankroll, while the win goal is a function of how often two pair occur in BP, and/or how soon winner of trips or greater might hit in the ABP game. Do you get this yet? Long term theory is irrelevant. Do you get THAT yet??

[Count Room]

I would rather we deal with reality here, and leave psychic abilities to a different discussion/forum. Since there is no way that is now known to determine the random shuffle of a continuous shuffle machine it must be a psychic or supernatural ability and perhaps with the exception of one poster here, the rest of us are mere mortals without that skill.

Alan: It may be nothing supernatural or involving psychic powers at all, but rather certain transient biological conditions as a result of body movement or diet or other factors (which would seem more realistic, anyway). No one knows enough at this point.

Obliging your request to drop this off-topic discussion after this posting...

[Rob.Singer]

Alan: It may be nothing supernatural or involving psychic powers at all, but rather certain transient biological conditions as a result of body movement or diet or other factors (which would seem more realistic, anyway). No one knows enough at this point.

Obliging your request to drop this off-topic discussion after this posting...

I have psychic abilities. I sense that Alan leads the pack of those vp "enthusiasts" who are unteachable, do not want to be taught, and will forever remain in a utopia of justifying their losses because of "recreational" type play. You can't compete with indifference. I'm also sensing that he's caught up in a "casino fever" that will stay with him for as long as he continues to breathe, and he will forever remain firmly in the grips of these places because he is the poster boy for doing EXACTLY what and how the casinos want and expect their customers to be....and sadly, there is nothing he or anyone with sensible advice can do for him.

However, there is hope! Next winter I hope to be able to take him to that dinner in LV, whereby he can finally be enlightened if he so chooses. Until then, because we choose to have a very active life of travel and enjoying many things that do not include casinos (a teachable moment for Alan if there ever was one) I will not write another word on this forum. And just think: Dan finally can lose like a man and exhale, Vic can perform his social engineering experiments here unabated, and arci can finally relax 24/7 in his home-turned-medical facility. Until I knock on his door later this year, that is

[Vegas_lover]

Until then I will not write another word on this forum.

Thank GOD!! But somehow I don't believe we're going to be that lucky. Anybody want to take a bet?

[arcimede$]

A couple of things:

First, about the "skills" of gambling...

Card counting is a true skill.

Dice control, at least theoretically, is a skill (I doubt anyone can really do it with much consistency).

Button pushing at video poker is impossible because there is no way to judge when is the right time to push the button -- because we can't see the cards zipping by in order to decide when to push.

And what happened with me Sunday night?

So, I had $250 of free play at Rincon and a friend wanted to know what "advantage play" was all about, so my friend went with me to Rincon to watch me run my $250 of free play ONCE through an 8/5 Bonus game. (By the way, half of the Nash family was at the machine next to me, and I was not on my favorite machine which was occupied.)

I played my $250 on the $1 game through one-time and cashed out $435 thanks to quad 10s for $125, plus one full house for $40, and a lot of pairs and trips.

Question for Arc: what were the odds that running $250 through a $1 machine once that I would do this well? As I said to my friend... I didn't expect such a great result. I expected perhaps a $200 cash-out.

I won't go into any detail but just give you a estimate. Since $250 is 50 hands and quads occur about every 425 hands, that means this should occur once ever 8.5 times you played (about 12%). Not saying you might not come out ahead at other times since hitting extra FHs, flushes or straights can also tip the scale just enough to produce a winner. In fact, out of the last 28 free play trips I took I had winning sessions 9 times.

[arcimede$]

Alan, there are no meaningful "odds" of hitting a certain cash out figure with $250 in freeplay run thru once on a dollar machine. That's the same thing as asking how you can expect do on a dollar machine for 10 minutes with $250. It's all short term stuff, and long term theory does not apply to short term stuff. That's why I came up with my strategy to play in the short term only, where each and every session ends when you leave with an attained pre-determined win or loss goal, and you leave. And when you return, you begin a new session all over again, which just like individual hands, is 100% unrelated to or affected by any that have come before, or any that are yet to come.

Short term play equates to reality; long term relies upon theory. When players finally comprehend that truth and accept that playing video poker is a real event with real results TODAY because that is the only outcome aspect every player really cares about, they will become better players because of it.

This is the typical nonsense Singer spews to try and sucker in the mathematically challenged. What he is claiming is the probability of various hands is suspended during short periods of time and only when you first sit down during a day. Hilarious. Only in some alternate universe. Anyone who would fall for this con is simply beyond help. Might as well answer those Nigerian emails. Same logic.

[Alan Mendelson]

Because you simply won't allow yourself to understand it. Here's a common REAL example of me playing a session of 25c thru $2 ARTT. My required bankroll for a session is $800 which is also my loss goal; my win goal is $100 minimum. I need 2 games--one being BP, the other an advanced BP game such as SDBP. Many times the PAY TABLES are different, BUT THE WIN & LOSS GOALS ALWAYS REMAIN EXACTLY THE SAME! Paytable theory means absolutely nothing. The loss goal is simply a function of the starting bankroll, while the win goal is a function of how often two pair occur in BP, and/or how soon winner of trips or greater might hit in the ABP game. Do you get this yet? Long term theory is irrelevant. Do you get THAT yet??

Yeah, I get all that Rob except that your "win goals" and "loss limits" won't make you win. What makes you "win" is your ability to hit more winning hands and to get larger winning payoffs. And if you play a pay table with better pays, you will have more chances to hit winning hands. And that's why long term theory is very relevant. Did you get THAT yet?

[Rob.Singer]

Yeah, I get all that Rob except that your "win goals" and "loss limits" won't make you win. What makes you "win" is your ability to hit more winning hands and to get larger winning payoffs. And if you play a pay table with better pays, you will have more chances to hit winning hands. And that's why long term theory is very relevant. Did you get THAT yet?

Sometimes the word "dense" just doesn't seem to do some of the things you say, justice.

A 9/5 SDBP pay table will indeed give me a few more chances to hit a winning hand than an 8/5 table. But....and please read this with your best comprehension....that is only TODAY. There is no "long term" associated with a single session's results. If I start a new session tomorrow on a 9/5 or 7/5 table and I win or lose, it has nothing to do with the profit I locked up yesterday. By saying something so hollow you're on the same blank page arci and his ilk are forever stuck on: trying unsuccessfully to apply long term theory to short term play.

Please wise up and rise above that nonsense.