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Thread: To my friend: stop going to casinos.

  1. #1
    This is an open letter to my friend: please stop going to casinos.

    You and I met in a casino about a year ago and developed a friendship. I was impressed because you described yourself as an "advantage player" who took advantage of casino promotions and offers, and you played the right games and made the right bets and you won money. You were reaping in the comps. You were having a good time. We even traveled to Las Vegas together to take advantage of offers there including free rooms and free meals and we even beat a casino in Vegas by teaming up with a doey-don't system at craps which returned a nice profit for us.

    But now, I am going to ask you to stop going because it is clear to me that you are no longer having fun, and having fun at casinos is the only thing you can really bank on. No one can bank on winning, and if you're not having fun it is pointless to go.

    I should have told you this a couple of weeks ago when you told me you lost your bankroll after some poor sessions at poker and craps and video poker, and it surprised me that a week later you were back at the casino.

    But it is clear to me you are not having "fun" anymore.

    "Fun" can be defined several ways: Winning is of course a great way to have fun but you haven't been winning. Getting comps that are worth more than your actual losses can also be fun. Going to shows and events can also be fun. Having great dinners can also be fun. But you've told me nothing in the past couple of weeks that indicate you've had any fun at all.

    And just tonight you complained that a free shuttle bus was literally three minutes late. Can you possibly be having "fun" if you have to make a big deal over a free shuttle bus being 3 minutes late?

    You are no longer winning. Your comps have been reduced. You've had a lot of bad luck. You never said you rebuilt your bankroll. So, my friend, stop going.

    The casino is no place for you now. Your "advantage playing" is no longer giving you an advantage. You are not getting the comps you used to get and you are no longer winning.

    You described yourself as an expert mathematician who played by the numbers. Now look at the numbers -- because they no longer add up to being positive on the fun meter.

  2. #2
    Do you give this same speech to people who invest in the stock market? Should they get out if they aren't "having fun?"

    Casinos, for the most part, are banal places. The points of interest, for me, are the human behaviors therein and the way those behaviors are manipulated. Casino design is interesting, but it's hard to tell casinos from shopping malls in terms of design these days, so maybe one would be best served studying shopping mall design.

    Propping oneself up by chanting, "I'm having fun," in casino environments where one is losing seems, to me, like self-hypnosis at its worst. At least the person who is losing and being miserable isn't Disney-fying the experience.

    I would not presume to tell anyone to not go to casinos because they are miserable. I would not presume to tell people to keep going because they are "having fun." Why would you?

  3. #3
    Just press the DEAL/DRAW button at the right time more often for more fun.

    It's not a gambling problem. It's a timing problem.

    EDIT: OK, OK, I wasn't being serious. In the end we are all individual adults and masters of our own destinies. I would only try to help a friend when s/he asks me for help. Otherwise, the shows goes on as normal.
    Last edited by Count Room; 06-15-2014 at 08:10 AM.

  4. #4
    Alan is trying to tell someone (who likely reads this forum) to stop going to casinos, because that person seems to be miserable when doing so. Looks like it's someone he met a year ago and has developed a friendship with, so he's posting this message out of concern.

    Rob Singer is going to gloat when he sees this message, as the subject here is apparently an "advantage player" who doesn't seem to be playing at an advantage anymore (and perhaps doesn't realize it).

    I think Alan is likely right here. CET has cut down their comps immensely, to where the formerly valid strategy of "play the best machines, hope you win, but get comped greater than your losses when you lose" is no longer realistic. Freeplay has been WAY cut down, as have all comps in general. VP pay tables have been reduced. You just can't be an advantage VP player any more -- or at least not at CET or any of the major properties.

    This guy seems to be still doing his usual gambling, losing, and the comps he's getting in return are crap. This, in turn, makes him miserable to the point where a slightly late shuttle bus makes him angry. He is probably lying to himself and insisting that this is just variance, and that he's playing at an advantage.
    Check out my poker forum, and weekly internet radio show at http://pokerfraudalert.com

  5. #5
    Count Room some people don't realize they're in trouble especially when they think they have an advantage but lost their bankroll.

    Redietz you don't have a compassionate bone in your body.

    Dan you understand what's going on.

  6. #6
    An excellent message from Alan to his friend, but it begs for a few expert comments.

    First, the friend is ONLY miserable because he is not winning. If he were a true AP then he would never seek to be having "fun" nor would he actually have any, whether he were winning or losing. He would just simply be seeking out statistical compliance by the machines (and/or other games he plays) to the math books. And that OVERWHELMINGLY does not happen without extreme and constant good luck. So Dan, there will be no gloating by me, because I've been there/done that....and like Alan's friend, I was truthful about it, albeit to a much larger audience.

    Without knowing this fellow's financial capabilities, still, it's good to have a friend who comes with good advice at a time when a gambling problem exists. But remember Alan, addiction to gambling is a tremendous challenge to face, admit, and correct. Just ask Bob Dancer and others like him who chose tragic & devastating life and/or relationship destruction over stopping or seriously adjusting when they knew they should have.

    This guy sounds like he could be down to his last gasp. If he finds he cannot or doesn't want to stop gambling, even though as an AP he falsely believes he's always playing with a mythical "edge", have him contact me for some of the best, experienced help he may ever have the opportunity to get.

  7. #7
    I am going to admit that , looking back on this, I was probably dead wrong, and I thank both Dan and Alan for pointing it out in different ways. Anybody who thinks they are an advantage player while playing CET vp is undoubtedly off the rails and in dire need of a reality check. The only advantage play at CET properties, under the old comp rules, was craps and the occasional sports future. "CET advantage player," in recent years, was always almost an oxymoron, and is almost certainly an oxymoron now. In addition, it's only a matter of time before CET spins off some of its properties into non-Total Rewards properties and slashes comps further.

    I responded to Alan's post as if the gentleman addressed were indeed an advantage player as opposed to someone who perceives himself as an advantage player. There are few of the first, and many more of the second. If the guy is playing primarily at CET, he's almost certainly in category number two. In this case, a wake up call isn't a terrible idea.

  8. #8
    Red, the last 4 or 5 years I've been pointing out that fact on vpFree about CET having zilch for AP vp (Harrahs mostly in the earlier part of that) and I did it every time Dancer or the Queen came on to give their constant tooting over their 7-Stars status. I regularly asked how such high-octane names in the "AP" world could get away with claiming as such when they were putting millions thru CET's poker machines. And of course, no answers were ever offered, and I was always scolded by the administrator for harrassing such noble names.However, it started an AVALANCHE of emailed private discussions every time. People are very aware of my point, and they are very aware of the charade.

  9. #9
    Someone please explain to me the mathematical part of the video poker game that we all play. I guess we are all gamblers and that's the reason why we play. We play for the love and fun of the game. Yes it is very expensive to play and the odds are generally against us. Sometimes we win and sometimes we lose. Normally we lose more than when we win however, we play the game because we enjoy it or at least I do. What I have realized is that when I win it's pretty much luck. I don't pay much attention to the pay tables because I don't think that really matters. When I am lucky I may hit a Royal or Quad Aces with a kicker. When I'm unlucky for the day I may go through my bank roll. That's normally when I walk away. I should add that when I hit something big that's enough motivation for me to walk away as well. I think we're all playing against a machine and the machine dictates what we are going to win and the possibilities of our luck should we get the right card. I'm sure you need a basic understanding of the game but really, we're just playing a machine. Who knows what will show up when you hit that little button. I believe it's really a game of luck with a touch of gambling. I think when playing video poker the bottom line is sometimes you win and sometimes you lose. I should add one other thing....."sometimes it rains."

    Quad AAAA's

    PS

    Alan I feel for your friend.

    A.

  10. #10
    Redietz. There is no such thing as advantage play in craps. Where the hell did you get that from?

  11. #11
    Reality, Alan, I got that from reality. I personally know for a fact that one particular individual has leveraged the CET comp system to his advantage playing craps for the last 10 years or so. Now he's not winning cash, obviously -- he's trading comp and room values for cash losses, and he's no addict. The fact is, his numbers, which are pristinely kept each session, aren't really close. He grinds out twice the comp value as his losses each year. Now admittedly, that means he's just neutralizing the 50% markup on rooms and food, but most people would take that and consider it "advantage play." Rob and I are a little tighter with our definitions, however, as we don't assign value to comps, although I do to free play. So we wouldn't consider my friend to be "winning." I think most people would, however, and he seems to be pulling off what Dan has been managing for years.

    My friend is a precisionist with numbers, so he's not misrepresenting what he's done. It's clearly a lose 5K in cash/get 10-12K in comps scenario.

  12. #12
    redietz: craps is a negative expectation game. There is no bet on the craps table which gives any player an advantage. Therefore craps cannot be an advantage play. I sincerely doubt that any player gets more in comps than what they lose at a craps table as craps is one of the games with some of the smallest comps available.

    Anyone who tells me that they lost $5K in cash to get $10 thousand to $12 thousand in comps probably is one hell of a fisherman also -- but too many big ones got away. I don't believe it.

    It's absolute BS.

  13. #13
    Originally Posted by Quad AAAA's View Post
    Someone please explain to me the mathematical part of the video poker game that we all play. I guess we are all gamblers and that's the reason why we play. We play for the love and fun of the game. Yes it is very expensive to play and the odds are generally against us. Sometimes we win and sometimes we lose. Normally we lose more than when we win however, we play the game because we enjoy it or at least I do. What I have realized is that when I win it's pretty much luck. I don't pay much attention to the pay tables because I don't think that really matters. When I am lucky I may hit a Royal or Quad Aces with a kicker. When I'm unlucky for the day I may go through my bank roll. That's normally when I walk away. I should add that when I hit something big that's enough motivation for me to walk away as well. I think we're all playing against a machine and the machine dictates what we are going to win and the possibilities of our luck should we get the right card. I'm sure you need a basic understanding of the game but really, we're just playing a machine. Who knows what will show up when you hit that little button. I believe it's really a game of luck with a touch of gambling. I think when playing video poker the bottom line is sometimes you win and sometimes you lose. I should add one other thing....."sometimes it rains."

    Quad AAAA's

    PS

    Alan I feel for your friend.

    A.
    Quad, it is not required that you lose. Not at all. Some people say they grind out a tiny percentage as "advantage players" from the game by playing a lot and using the comp system. I wasn't able to succeed with that method by trying it for more than six years. But ever since 1997, when I changed my play to my own developed strategy, I won a consistent and significant each year. The game has gone from frustrating to fun for me, and the compilation of comps is irrelevant in my formula. Most players do as you do, and that is why casinos thrive.

  14. #14
    If you say so, Alan. We know you're the expert on such things.

    I realized afterwards I had no business stating what I did, but thankfully Alan bailed me out.


    "M-E-N-D......E-L-S-O-N!! If Alan can't do it, nobody can!!! Yayyyy!!!!!!"


    Rob, that's one thing I've always wondered -- how or why can Scott or Dancer be Seven Stars (or even Diamond) at CET and claim to be advantage players? How does that work?
    Last edited by redietz; 06-17-2014 at 12:08 PM.

  15. #15
    Refietz I will concede that some could value a free room at $3,000 a night. Is that what your friend claims? Otherwise save your BS. No one gets $10-12k in comps for $5k of play.

  16. #16
    Originally Posted by redietz View Post
    Rob, that's one thing I've always wondered -- how or why can Scott or Dancer be Seven Stars (or even Diamond) at CET and claim to be advantage players? How does that work?
    I think I can answer this.

    Basically, it doesn't work anymore unless you REALLY make good use of the Seven Stars program and free room benefits.

    If you play only Aces and Faces Bonus Poker (99.26%), your theoretical loss is $3700 when earning $150k tiers. But that's theoretical. If you play $5 per hand, you are only about 50-50 to make a royal, you will lose almost $14000 on average. And if you don't hit the royal and also don't hit your fair share of quads, you will lose even more.

    So basically it's a $3700 expected loss, but with high variance to where half the time you will lose $14k or more, and a smaller percentage of time you will win (likely if you hit 2 or more royals).

    But let's ignore that and assume a $3700 loss.

    A player who just sticks to high-return VP and makes only 150k tier credits isn't getting much in the way of freeplay these days. Like, very little. We're talking about a few hundred per promo for new Seven Stars, and $50-$200 for existing ones (that's basically what I'm getting these days lol).

    So while the freeplay still has value if you're already there at the casino, you wouldn't want to make a trip just for that.

    This is where you have to utilize the benefits that come with Seven Stars.

    This includes the cruise, the annual trip, the $500 meal, and numerous free rooms throughout the year. Also, if you play on WSOP.com in Nevada/NJ (which I do), you also get 30% rakeback, which can add up quickly.

    I use all of the above. Many rooms. The annual tip (2 of them in 2013), the cruises, the $500 meal, and the WSOP.com increased rakeback. And I am frugal with my RCs and only use them as necessary. And I use that little "free show" benefit occasionally in Vegas, or other little freebies like the free buffet at Rincon and the free spa treatment at certain properties like Biloxi. And it's nice to have the priority lines at the WSOP.

    I also learned I only have to renew my Seven Stars every other year to keep it going, so I go "dark" with my play on the other year.

    So I get several thousand dollars value out of my Seven Stars, but I imagine that most (even Bob Dancer) don't do it to the extent I do. It does require some effort. I haven't calculated whether I ended up making back what I lost in benefits/freeplay. It was close. But I didn't do this to make money. I did it so I could enjoy the excitement of gambling at moderately high stakes video poker, knowing that even if I lost, I would come close to recouping the losses in all of the perks.

    However, anyone who seeks to be a VP advantage player at CET or other large properties is really just fooling themselves, as there just isn't money in it anymore, and you will take a cash loss in most cases when attempting to do so.
    Check out my poker forum, and weekly internet radio show at http://pokerfraudalert.com

  17. #17
    Alan,

    I don't know craps so I'm just asking here. In slots and vp your theo is based on the amount of money you ran through the machine. So losing 5000 dollars (out of pocket money) at the slots could mean you've ran 25000 or more dollars through the machine. Could it be that the bean counters, count the same way in craps? Say you have a bankroll of 5000 dollars, you have a couple of good throws and at some point you have 10000 dollars, but in the end you lose it all. You still have a net loss of 5000 dollars but your comps could be higher than expected. Does this sound like a possibility?

  18. #18
    Originally Posted by redietz View Post
    Rob, that's one thing I've always wondered -- how or why can Scott or Dancer be Seven Stars (or even Diamond) at CET and claim to be advantage players? How does that work?
    I'll answer this one for you Rob because it's very simple (and I'm trying to prevent you making a fool out of yourself again). If Rob Singer can be a consistent winner at -EV games in any casino (because he gives luck a better chance to appear.....or whatever) why can't Scott or Dancer be Seven Stars at CET and advantage players at the same time? Maybe their results are above average because they're lucky?

  19. #19
    Comps are lower for craps... period. Vegas_lover don't get swept up in this BS. You don't get $10k in comps for $5k in play... win or lose. Must be another of red's mysterious articles.

  20. #20
    Originally Posted by Vegas_lover View Post
    I'll answer this one for you Rob because it's very simple (and I'm trying to prevent you making a fool out of yourself again). If Rob Singer can be a consistent winner at -EV games in any casino (because he gives luck a better chance to appear.....or whatever) why can't Scott or Dancer be Seven Stars at CET and advantage players at the same time? Maybe their results are above average because they're lucky?
    Losing is not a requirement for 7 Stars or for Diamond.

    Rob has told us he is now 7 Stars. Rob, are you winning or losing?

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