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Thread: "Free" strategies don't last forever

  1. #1
    I am the first to admit that "milking" the casinos by taking advantage of the "free" offers and "free play" and "free rooms" can't last forever unless you also decide to open your own wallets.

    I have often criticized those players who would check into multiple Vegas properties on the same days to take advantage of simultaneous offers. I criticized them because the "math" would eventually catch up with them and the casinos would reduce offers or even eliminate them if the "play" wasn't what was expected.

    Recently it's been happening to me: over the past couple of months I have been playing less of my own money and relying on casino offers of free play, and now the free play offers are rapidly dropping in value.

    I received my July offers for a CET-run property in San Diego (Rincon) and these were based on my play in May. To be honest, my play was very low in May. I could see it was very low because my "bounce back" money was very low. And now the offers are very low for July which is based on play in May.

    The offers for July are so low, in fact, that with the exception of maybe one day during the month when I can combine a few offers, it doesn't pay for me to go. My "weekly" free play has dropped to $40 which isn't going to even cover my gas expense if I run it through an 8/5 Bonus or 8/5 Aces and Faces game.

    There are some "Sunday" offers for $120 of free play but combined with the weekly $40 it's just $160 of free play and while I have a chance at covering my gas expense and maybe a fast-food stop or tip on my weekly $60 free meal allowance, it is still "tight" to make it work.

    I was not surprised by this and was expecting it.

    Meanwhile, my offers in Vegas are still valued at about $1,000 per trip and that makes it more likely that I might do one trip to Vegas by car than weekly "day trips" to a local casino. Of course going to Vegas once a month is being "optimistic" because it takes more time for a "Vegas trip" I don't necessarily have the time to plan ahead for them.

    I should point out that I started to lower my play once I reached 7Stars again. So it will be "slow going" for the rest of 2014.

  2. #2
    Some reason for this is also because CET is cutting down their freeplay in general. Everyone is complaining about this.

    The fact that you lowered your play since hitting 7 Stars is telling. It shows that the 7 Stars program is flawed to where it experiences the law of diminishing returns once people hit 150k tier credits. Indeed, with each 50,000 tiers being worth at most $500, that means the second 150k tiers you earn will be worth $1500, while the first 150k (Seven Stars) is worth far more than that.

    One basic law of commerce is to reward -- not punish -- the customer who buys in bulk. Do you see pizza places charging $10 for the first pizza and $15 for the second? Of course not. It's always the other way around.

    CET has this backwards. The "value" of the TR program should not peak at 150k tiers, but that's exactly what it does.

    They should be happy to give MORE perks per 150k tiers for people who play more, as they should be willing to give up some expected profit-per-tier-earned for high volume players. It's the same reason companies will give up profits per item sold if you buy many units.

    I believe their thinking is likely that people earning over 150k tiers are likely addicted gamblers and don't need the TR program to further motivate them, but I disagree. I bet there are a lot of customers who lose interest in earning further TR benefits once they hit 150k, simply because the further benefits aren't very good.
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  3. #3
    In the opening paragraph above, Alan is talking about two entirely different things and trying to suggest they are similar or equivalent -- namely, (1) simultaneous booking of comped rooms and offers and (2) free play use without substantial real money churn. These are two different things. People have been doing the first for 30 years, and have rarely had any issues. The second is debatable -- if you are locked into one or two casino companies, then obviously you will get negative feedback in terms of free play. But if you scatter your play among every company, with all of the takeovers and management changes and marketing strategy reboots, eventually the casino you shorted will come back and make you an offer you can't refuse.

    Alan views things from the perspective of a somewhat bourgeois tourist, which (admittedly) is the category most folks would fall into. The idea, however, that simultaneous bookings damage your offers is sheer speculation with no real factual basis. I suppose Alan is making the point that multiple simultaneous bookings allow only so much time for gambling at each company per day, which would reduce your offers. This would apply only if you're gambling an amount of time (eight hours or more) at each property that would make simultaneous play impossible. For race or sports bettors, for example, this concept is nonsense. We can be in and out of each property in 10 minutes. If your usual gaming play is three-four hours, which would be "normal" for most people, even tourists, juggling simultaneous bookings while maintaining a rating shouldn't be much of an issue. And if your rating suffers, big deal. Eventually they'll come a'knocking again.
    Last edited by redietz; 06-29-2014 at 05:24 AM.

  4. #4
    Redietz I am curious about this: can a sports bettor reach 7 Stars? How big must the bets be for 150, 000 tier points?

    And how much "free play" do sports book bettors get?

  5. #5
    Originally Posted by redietz View Post
    In the opening paragraph above, Alan is talking about two entirely different things and trying to suggest they are similar or equivalent -- namely, (1) simultaneous booking of comped rooms and offers and (2) free play use without substantial real money churn. These are two different things.
    No they're not different. Both are "comp whoring" and they don't last forever. Don't pretend that they do.

  6. #6
    Originally Posted by Dan Druff View Post
    the 7 Stars program is flawed to where it experiences the law of diminishing returns once people hit 150k tier credits. Indeed, with each 50,000 tiers being worth at most $500, that means the second 150k tiers you earn will be worth $1500, while the first 150k (Seven Stars) is worth far more than that.
    Dan this is really an excellent point and I am glad you spelled it out simply and clearly. And for those who don't know, the $500 of benefits that come with each additional 50,000 tier points refers to the value of a "7 Stars Experience" and it appears that the best use of a "7 Stars Experience" is the redemption of a $500 Total Rewards Gift Card.

    Originally Posted by Dan Druff View Post
    One basic law of commerce is to reward -- not punish -- the customer who buys in bulk. Do you see pizza places charging $10 for the first pizza and $15 for the second? Of course not. It's always the other way around.

    CET has this backwards. The "value" of the TR program should not peak at 150k tiers, but that's exactly what it does.

    They should be happy to give MORE perks per 150k tiers for people who play more, as they should be willing to give up some expected profit-per-tier-earned for high volume players. It's the same reason companies will give up profits per item sold if you buy many units.
    Again an excellent point Dan and this is what any good business person would do for good customers. It's that way in the advertising business -- big volume advertisers are rewarded with better pricing.

  7. #7
    Using room, show, and food offers simultaneously, whether comp whoring or not, can last forever. I'm not pretending anything, just reporting. You know, Alan, you sometimes assume a degree of assertiveness with opinions that are non-factual and really off.

    Theoretically, one could reach 7 Stars betting sports. I'm sure some people have. As usual, however, CET has mucked things up royally. Instead of having a set system with identical limits for all players, various CET properties have decided that one's status should affect one's limits. So some properties want to reward people who have established that they are idiots by reaching 7 Stars by playing bad games at CET with higher limits. It's kinda cute. If you're a free-wheeling, lousy-game-playing moron, they'll allow you to bet more. It's pretty funny, actually. Your slot IQ is inversely proportional to your assigned betting limits.

    I think one reason Alan and I have completely different data bases regarding "comp whoring" is that sports betting requires shopping 'til you drop for numbers, prices, and futures, so you go everywhere and check everything. Alan pretty much lives at a handful of places and is immersed in a couple of casino companies.
    Last edited by redietz; 06-29-2014 at 05:01 PM.

  8. #8
    Originally Posted by redietz View Post
    Using room, show, and food offers simultaneously, whether comp whoring or not, can last forever. I'm not pretending anything, just reporting.
    How will you prove this? I would like to know how it's done. The key word is "forever." To be clear: are you claiming that once you are on a comp list that future play no longer matters? If so we'd all like to know this trick.

    Also... just what kind of comps, especially free play, do you get from the sports books? Please be specific.

    You have made many dramatic claims here. Though not as dramatic as Rob Singer's they still challenge reality.

    Is this belief related to what you claimed about comps at craps?

    Originally Posted by redietz View Post
    My friend is a precisionist with numbers, so he's not misrepresenting what he's done. It's clearly a lose 5K in cash/get 10-12K in comps scenario.

  9. #9
    I think I can answer some of this.

    I am what is considered an "overcomped player". That is, CET feels that I have used more of their resources than they feel my play has justified.

    Indeed, I now get very weak freeplay offers in Vegas (usually $50-$100), nor is it much better anywhere else. It briefly spiked (though not all that high) because I put in a lot of Rincon play in a short time, so I could renew Seven Stars by the end of 2013.

    But enough about me. The casino industry is VERY obsessed with the present and future of its players, and cares little about the past. Many believe that you get comps as a reward for how much you've already played. That's false. You get comps based upon how much it is believed you will play in the future. Of course, the only way to determine that is from past play, so the casinos have the difficult task of figuring out whether you're going to be a big future gambler, or if you've already shot your load. Indeed, some heavy gamblers never return to their prior level of play, often because they went broke and/or lost too much money.

    The casinos are constantly trying to figure out the exact right amount of comps to entice you to come lose more money with them. If they give too little, you either feel insulted or don't want to bother making the trip. If they give too much, they are both giving away profits and risking that you will simply use them for freebies and not give them any kind of real business (i.e. play).

    So the question is: How is this determined?

    It's determined by "trips". A "trip" is defined as a visit to the casino where you either play or stay in the hotel. How long is a trip? Its length is determined as follows:

    - If you are staying there, it is considered the entire length of your stay
    - If you are not staying there, it is considered however many consecutive days you gamble there

    Each trip has a theoretical loss, or "theo". The theo is calculated by your expected losses from your play, given a variety of factors. At slot machines, the theo is a straightforward calculation, since everyone plays at the same odds. At video poker, since there is some strategy involved, the theo is initially assumed to be your losses based upon perfect play, but it adjusts up if you seem to be consistently losing (i.e. it assumes you probably play suboptimal strategy). At both slots and video poker, your theo is directly a function of coin-in, not hours played. At blackjack, your theo is calculated by average bet, time played, and your skill level (as judged by the pit boss).

    The computer spitting out your offers looks at your theo for each trip, and analyzes it. If it is more or less consistent, it ignores anomalies where your play is low. For example, if you have a theo of $5000-$7000 for five trips in a row, then your sixth trip you just use your freeplay and otherwise don't gamble, but then return to a theo of $5k-$7k for the next 3 trips, it will forgive that one "freeplay only" trip and your offers won't be affected. However, if your theo drops consistently, or if it falls to zero, your offers will dry up quickly. This is because it is assumed that your high action in the past will never occur again, so it is deemed a waste of resources to give you lucrative comps.

    Alan lost a lot of his freeplay for two reasons. First, CET has decided to trim everyone's offers over the past 2 years. Second, the computer saw his theo drop substantially, and now is assuming that his robust play of 2013 is not something that can be expected going forward.

    But what about staying in comp rooms? What if you accept offers for show tickets or meals? Will that also kill your freeplay? Yes and no.

    If you do these things and do not play, it will be considered a "zero theo" trip. If you do enough of these, your freeplay and other offers will indeed suffer.

    But if you do these things AND play, it will NOT lower your comps/freeplay.

    As a good example, Alan has said many times that he does NOT stay at the Rincon hotel. He goes there, plays, and drives home. But whether he stays in comp rooms or just foregoes that benefit, it will NOT affect his freeplay. The only thing matters is that a "trip" is seen, and then his play for that trip is evaluated. Whether he utilizes all the comps available to him on that trip is immaterial.

    So does it not matter at all if you take advantage of offers/comp rooms?

    It matters if you want extras from your host. When hosts decide to authorize extras -- such as second comp rooms for friends/family in town, they are doing so based upon the total comps redeemed versus what you earned from your recent and semi-recent play. So if you've been taking advantage of every possible comp and offer, you won't be getting all that many favors, even if you have played a fair amount. On the flip side, if you play a ton and barely ever take advantage of free rooms or other offers, then the host will have a lot more power to give you various extras.

    So basically there are two different determinations -- your automated offers and the number of extras your host can give you. One is determined by a cold formula, while the other is more of a human guesstimation, aided by data provided by the system.

    There are also a few benefits that do not affect anything at all. These are the base Total Rewards benefits, such as the monthly free shows in Vegas, the free monthly spa treatments at certain properties, the Diamond/Seven Star lounges, etc. Redeeming those does not affect your offers or comps. In addition, redemption of free cruises also does not affect your offers or comps, as that is a marketing partnership with NCL, and not an actual comp.
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  10. #10
    Anything that is statistically unlikely challenges reality. Three years ago, I was 66-34 ATS and won 17 consecutive games.

    How hard is it to win 17 consecutive games? It's as likely as "death by reptile."

    If Alan would like to take a crack at my veracity, there's plenty of polygraph dudes in LA. Loser pays for the polygraph and buys dinner.

    I'm not going to address the craps thing again. I had no business semi-blowing somebody's cover. Hint: not all gambling takes place in LV. It also defied reality that somebody could set casinos against each other and negotiate same-day rebates for blackjack action and walk away with millions of dollars, legally. Sounds impossible. More unlikely than anything Rob Singer managed. Reality sometimes exceeds expectations.

  11. #11
    So redietz is.a Magician and magically gets comps the rest of us would never get without continued play. He still hasn't told us if in the sports book his comps include free play.

    Dan Druff thank you for a good explanation of the real world but don't forget that without enough play to maintain Diamond or Seven Stars those basic comps of rooms and the lounges go away too. You can't milk those forever. Even you know Seven Stars lasts only two years.

  12. #12
    Originally Posted by Alan Mendelson View Post
    So redietz is.a Magician and magically gets comps the rest of us would never get without continued play. He still hasn't told us if in the sports book his comps include free play.

    Dan Druff thank you for a good explanation of the real world but don't forget that without enough play to maintain Diamond or Seven Stars those basic comps of rooms and the lounges go away too. You can't milk those forever. Even you know Seven Stars lasts only two years.
    I agree that you can't milk it forever with zero play, but if you play enough to maintain those yearly levels, you can milk those certain benefits repeatedly without any detriment to your offers.
    Check out my poker forum, and weekly internet radio show at http://pokerfraudalert.com

  13. #13
    Originally Posted by Dan Druff View Post
    I agree that you can't milk it forever with zero play, but if you play enough to maintain those yearly levels, you can milk those certain benefits repeatedly without any detriment to your offers.
    Agreed. You get what you "play" for. Except if you are redietz and his mysterious buddies.

  14. #14
    On my last trip to Vegas, 2 weeks ago I stayed at the Cosmo. They had sent me an offer for 2 nights suite, $100 Food and $700 in Free Play, after playing 1 hour there for the first time 2 weeks prior.

    I played about ½ my usual coin in from a normal CET 2 night trip. I was approached by a host and told to go have a nice dinner as he could comp another $300 backend.

    About 1 week after my visit I received my next offer for 2 nights suite, $100 Food and $900 in Free Play.

    The room was a 1 bedroom terrace suite 56th Floor North View. It was much nicer than the Augustus or Octavius Rooms at Caesars.


    This week I am going to Planet Hollywood and my host let me know that my $900 Free Play is not good on the 4th of July weekend. Best he could get me is $275 Free Play and $75 Resort Credit.

    I sent the offer from Cosmo to him and asked him to show it to the higher ups to get it matched.

    The only reason I am going to Planet Hollywood over Cosmo this weekend is I have a 2 Bedroom suite booked.

    CETs offers are going down. I now have hosts from Hard Rock, Cosmo and SLS calling me on a regular basses and most of what they are offering is better then CET.

    Ps. The new host from Cosmo knows I am staying at PH and wants to book 1 night so I will come use the free play. This is the first time I have had a host want me to double book just to use free play.

  15. #15
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    Well, I got my monthly mailer book for Rincon in today's mail. My weekly free play dropped $15.00 from last month. My food credits remained the same and I did get a one time $130.00 that will be put on my card.

  16. #16
    Originally Posted by Dan Druff View Post
    It's determined by "trips". A "trip" is defined as a visit to the casino where you either play or stay in the hotel. How long is a trip? Its length is determined as follows:

    - If you are staying there, it is considered the entire length of your stay
    - If you are not staying there, it is considered however many consecutive days you gamble there

    Each trip has a theoretical loss, or "theo". The theo is calculated by your expected losses from your play, given a variety of factors. At slot machines, the theo is a straightforward calculation, since everyone plays at the same odds. At video poker, since there is some strategy involved, the theo is initially assumed to be your losses based upon perfect play, but it adjusts up if you seem to be consistently losing (i.e. it assumes you probably play suboptimal strategy). At both slots and video poker, your theo is directly a function of coin-in, not hours played. .

    Hi Dan:

    Thanks for the information. This raises some questions to me. Are you saying that at CET if I check in the hotel late on Friday night and check out on a Sunday but play the equivalent of a $150 theo loss on Sat and $150 on Sunday, is my "trip" theo of $300 loss is divided by three days or is it only two days since I only stayed two nights at CET for calculating CET's Average Daily Theorectical?

  17. #17
    If people think Alan's claim that using room, show, or food offers simultaneously has massive detrimental effects on your offers, I suggest they check the Las Vegas Advisor and LVAdvice sites for threads wherein Alan made similar speculative claims. Alan is a "recreational player." In some circles, that's also known as a "tourist."

  18. #18
    Redietz,

    I don't read Alan's writing as claiming that using room, show and food offers at the same time necessarily destroys future offers. I thought he was saying that using offers without corresponding action will eventually burn out the offers. I played at the Riviera casino at Las Vegas when it had a free play promotion for new members and put in some good action that promotional period. For a time I then received handsome slof tournament and free play offers. I deliberately came in and took advantage of those offers while playing very little since Riviera did not have what I otherwise wanted in a hotel/resort. Eventually those offers were discontinued.

    As to Alan being a "recreational player" or "tourist" I guess if Alan's regular job pays well enough and he enjoys gambling and the perks who am I to judge? That does not mean that his advice on maximizing benefits and comps are not useful.

  19. #19
    Redietz read what FAB wrote above.

    Regarding LVA that discussion was about people who would check into two Vegas hotels simultaneously to take free play offers from both. My point was you can't milk free play offers and expect them to continue without the play that justifies those offers. You can't comp whore forever.

    As far as rooms go even they are a function of your play. Lose your 7Stars or Diamond rank and the free rooms and other benefits go away.

    You never told us: what free play do you get in the sports book?

    Is it like a poker room where comps are valued at $1 per hour of cash games?

    Do you even know what I am talking about?

  20. #20
    Originally Posted by Dan Druff View Post

    One basic law of commerce is to reward -- not punish -- the customer who buys in bulk. Do you see pizza places charging $10 for the first pizza and $15 for the second? Of course not. It's always the other way around.
    While I agree with your economics I'm not sure it applies to the strip right now. The strip is basically a duopoly and monopolies and duopolies don't have to follow the normal economic rules due to lack of competition.

    Also gambling has the addictive nature that most other economic activities don't have.

    If CET goes down and is broken up that will probably be good for gamblers. Also if that project by the Trump is completed that will provide more competition.

    Good thread.

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