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Thread: Hit and Run report

  1. #1
    Rob Singer is not around, but one of the things I actually liked about his strategy is his advocacy of hit and run sessions. Hit and run meaning that when you hit -- you run before you give it back.

    I had a hit and run session on Friday night. I hit quad aces for $2,000 playing Super Aces Bonus at Rincon in San Diego. I didn't hit it right away -- I was down about $900 on the night when I hit. But when I hit -- I ran. (Photo below, held one ace.)Name:  20140726_030156.jpg
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    I came back on Saturday night in time for the 11pm $50,000 drawing. Earlier in the day there were the hourly $1,000 free play drawings. I got lucky and was picked for $1,000 of free play. I ran the free play through one time on 8/5 Bonus at the $1 level. But only cashed out $575. I actually had two "runs" where I didn't even get a paying pair for 20 or more hands in a row. It was my second "hit and run" in as many days.

    I know a lot of the "math guys" will argue that playing video poker is all one session, but it really feels good when you leave the casino with cash -- whether it is all one long session or not.

  2. #2
    Nice hit. Maybe the "one long session" thing is good in a theoretical discussion or even for a pro playing 40-60 hours a week.

    I play the horses 5 days a week--but I have never considered it one long session. I do know that when you win $30,000 on one day and go buy a new car or book a trip somewhere or otherwise splurge on something with those winnings, that's $30,000 you can't lose back. It feels good in the pocket or parked in the garage or on that beautiful beach somewhere. I don't need to just consider it part of a long session and lose it all back as I regress to the mean over the long session.

  3. #3
    Hi Alan:

    Good job on the AAAA hit, the $1,000 free play draw and the discipline to walk and not put it back in the machines. I do not agree with the "one long session" school of thought. Like you I have a regular job but I go to casinos to have fun (both in gambling and associated activities). Leaving the casino with money achieves the purpose of having fun and allows one to savor the win for a long time. Also absent a rare short term promotion I do not run into positive play situations where I can make more than 100%. Therefore, if I played an infinite amount of time in the "long run" I would be broke.

  4. #4
    This Friday, August 1st, I have another "hit and run" opportunity. I get my weekly free play money at Rincon (unfortunately it's only $40) but I also get another special promotion of $140 cash (which I will probably put right in my pocket), plus I get be "bounce back" (cash back) money from June. I haven't received my mailer yet, so I am going to take a guess that my bounce back money will be about $200 to $300. I will also be able to get $30 of free play by converting reward credits. (I always convert because I have more than $2,000 in total rewards gift cards.)

    So my Friday "hit" will be at least the $140 cash (I spend about $40 on gas for the trip) plus whatever I can cash out from the free play. If I have $300 total of free play (estimate) I think I will get at least 50% of that in cash for another $150. (Playing 8/5 Aces and Faces or 8/5 Bonus I am hoping for a much higher return, of course.)

    Bottom line I think I can "bank" about $300 on Friday which isn't a bad day's pay for having fun. Plus, I get $60 food credit and that will certainly cover my New England Clam Chowder fix.

  5. #5
    Wow! We may have to ban you now!

  6. #6
    I do a variation of the H & R, but it's more like "Hit and Save", especially when I'm in LV for several days. I have a set daily budget in envelopes, one for each day of the trip. (I can't say I have NEVER dipped into the next day's envelope because of a dry spell, but I really don't recall the last time I did.) Anyway, if I am doing well in a given day, I allow myself to increase my set daily budget up to half again as much by using some of the day's winnings.. (after all, I'm on vacation to have fun). Any winnings over and above that new spending amount for the day go into the Take Home envelope. Money from Royals are auto-untouchable and definitely go home.

  7. #7
    If you are an occasional VP player, hit-and-run is smart because it will often prevent you from "losing it back", and basically removes -EV hands from the equation of your overall play.

    That is, if you only play VP once every 6 months, it's a big deal to your yearly expected win/loss to quit after hitting something big.

    If you play often, hitting and running will have a very small effect on your overall results. That's because your wallet or bank account doesn't see sessions -- only a cold, hard number of how much money you have.

    So all that really matters is overall number of hands played, and the corresponding expected loss. Hitting and running only lowers your number of hands played, so if you're a regular player, that is negligible.

    However, hitting and running DOES have psychological value.

    - It can make you feel good for awhile

    - It can prevent you feeling much WORSE if you lose it all back. Doubling your win experiences the law of diminishing returns (you aren't as excited as you would be for two sessions where you win half of that, twice consecutively). Losing your win back, on the other hand, is psychologically damaging.

    - You are less likely to make mistakes if you are playing happy. If you lose back what you won earlier, the chance of you making mistakes (or playing too high for what you normally would feel comfortable playing) goes up.

    I have quit poker sessions when ahead for that reason, especially if it's a win following a long losing streak. It is more important to me to "book a win" in my mind and break the losing streak, than to possibly shatter my confidence by losing it back. However, I will usually not hit and run if I've been going well or average in my results in recent sessions.
    Check out my poker forum, and weekly internet radio show at http://pokerfraudalert.com

  8. #8
    Originally Posted by Vegas Vic View Post
    if I am doing well in a given day, I allow myself to increase my set daily budget
    this is "raising your stop loss" and when I am winning I will do this too, sometimes. But I am "saving up" for a trip to Vegas and in the case of my win on Super Aces Bonus it wasn't enough to raise my stop loss... after all, I was in the hole by $900 when I hit it. Had I hit the quad aces earlier in my session, and didn't have a $900 loss it would have been the time to raise my stop loss.

  9. #9
    Originally Posted by Dan Druff View Post
    If you play often, hitting and running will have a very small effect on your overall results.
    This doesn't make sense to me. If someone were to play every day of the year, and quits with a $10 profit every day of the year, what's wrong with that? That could be an annual profit of $3,650.

    If you ask me, quitting each day with any profit is good.

    I have repeated what my father told me when I was a kid about the stock market: "no one ever went broke selling a stock at a profit." And I think that applies to casino gambling very well: "no one ever went broke leaving the casino with a profit."

  10. #10
    If you play a lot and play with a positive EV, hitting and running has virtually no value. If you play with negative EV, any reduction in hands played is a good thing. As far as I can tell, nobody on this forum plays positive EV video poker these days, so reduction in hands reduces losses.

    I am not, however, an advocate of locking up small "psychological wins." In the book Whale Hunt in the Desert, the hosts poke fun at the people who walk away feeling good about themselves after small wins, and who keep tallies of win/loss number of sessions rather than win/loss money overall. They refer to these folks as "eating like birds and shitting like bears." In other words, they micro-manage and feel great while negotiating small wins and then dump massive amounts when losing.

  11. #11
    That may be what a whale host thinks but it's my money and an extra ten bucks in my pocket is almost a movie ticket.

  12. #12
    redietz is correct, and that's what I was saying.

    However, I will say that psychological wins will help you if you're in a bad state of mind regarding your recent gambling results. It will help you psychologically, that is -- not results-wise, unless you play poorly when frustrated.
    Check out my poker forum, and weekly internet radio show at http://pokerfraudalert.com

  13. #13
    But a ten dollar profit is not a psychological win. It is a real win, paid out in real money.

    I guess I'm not as wealthy as the rest of you guys.

  14. #14
    Of course, using Alan's philosophy, one could get $2 ahead every hour and quit after each hour instead of using the $10 a day deal.

    Or maybe get 50 cents ahead after 10 minutes and quit, then jam a lot of 10-minute sessions into a day.

    When you put the concept in these terms, the absurdity of the idea begins to rear its ugly head.

  15. #15
    You know what's uglier? Winning and then putting it all back.

  16. #16
    I wasn't certain about the benefits to you all about my returning after thumbing thru some of the activity. After all, what more can be said to or about those who continually allow the CET system to abuse them, then come on here to rant about it? So many times, over & over. If you can't stop playing there and/or you don't really have other decent options, JUST ACCEPT WHAT IS for God's sake! At times it's like Jean Scott filling her purse with dinner rolls from the buffet, only to find out they're all stale when she gets home. And who's not sick of hearing "I'm overcomped"? That guy is in serious need of a royal for a change. Yes, a winning session will do wonders for anyone who can't get themselves to admit that they "play for the day"....as all vp players everywhere, of course, do. Oh, Eddie--I haven't been to, read, or cared about posts on LVA for a long time, and I've never used an alias anywhere ever but on vp.com as babybubba, and only because I identified that handle as me in my first post. But you may pretend just like you and a few others pretend my big hits are photoshopped or fake or whatever. It's what the little people do.

    Here's where redietz and Dan and anyone else who wants it to be that leaving with a profit is wrong, are wrong. They develop an argument that all WINS are small, and all losses are LARGE, but they never have any background to even come close to proving that assertion because they've never played that way. As someone who played what is being called here as "hit & run" vp professionally for over ten years and very successfully so (and many of my session-ending big wins were documented with pics and tax forms with my column publisher for almost 8 of those years) playing like that does actually produce many large wins--much larger than what a "bear shits" in many cases, and far more often.

    Leaving with any profit is as good for the soul as it is for the wallet. To claim it doesn't matter what happens TODAY because of a couple of decades of playing, is just plain shortsighted as well as inexperienced in the art and science....and the math, of gambling. I haven't played for a while because of travel and other commitments, but I can sure tell you that, like everyone else who's going to casinos, when I go next week I am certainly expecting to win, and of course to the disdain and disbelief of the envious haters, again. Otherwise, why go? So I can play for 6-8 life-wasting hours a day just to get comps and gift tickets?

    Than you so much!
    Last edited by Rob.Singer; 07-29-2014 at 07:22 PM.

  17. #17
    Originally Posted by Rob.Singer View Post
    Oh, Eddie--I haven't been to, read, or cared about posts on LVA for a long time, and I've never used an alias anywhere ever but on vp.com as babybubba, and only because I identified that handle as me in my first post.
    Hmmm...I haven't commented on this thread yet you drag me in. Miss us all Rob? Since you want to start hijacking threads right away after your ban here you go.

    Here are a few comments by albeadle33 from the LVA forum. His posting activity increased dramatically after Alan threw him off this forum.

    "Wasn't around during the Singer days, but it 100% seems his vp and trolling skills have survived. He has some of those mind-boggling/thread-jacking posts over on alanbestbuysforums.com with plenty of how-to videos, and if his real name is Rob Augustino as I believe I read there, then it's the same guy I saw a picture of on the wall who hit $20000 and $50000 vp jackpots at a place called Harvery in Northern Nevada."

    This was his attempt to revive a 2007 thread.

    "Obama doesn't care about facts or statistics or if raising the minimum wage does or does not help or hurt employment. His actions, desires and policies are and have always been aimed in one simple direction for one simple reason: to take from the rich and give to the poor, lazy, unproductive, inner city thugs and slugs as payback for all the years of disproportionate living. He feels these losers are entitled to a better life on the backs of the successful white man, regardless of the consequences resulting from increased demotivation to contribute anything of any value whatsoever to society. And all Mr. O has succeeded in doing is creating higher out-of-wedlock births and fatter prison population numbers for "his" people.

    Pretty much follows the success rate of everything else the most incapable, incompetent, inexperienced president in US history has compiled.

    The experiment has been an unmitigated failure, and I for one am embarrassed for our nation for having had to endure this abomination."

    More racist anti-Obama rants. Continue with the lies Rob. Everyone here and on the LVA forum know the undeniable truth.

  18. #18
    Was this necessary here? In this particular thread? I don't think so. If you have something you want to say that is not part of the actual thread, please start another thread. Let's try to keep the threads "on target." I'm not censoring (unless personal insults start popping up) but I do want to keep the threads focused as much as possible. Thanks.

  19. #19
    Now that is funny! Thanks for the laughs guys!

  20. #20
    Far be it from me to not comment on Mr. Augustino's return. Let me just say that I briefly took a look at the albeadle33 threads, and it sure sounds like Rob. However, over at LVAdvisor, his comments are no more vitriolic or mean-spirited than most. It is nasty there, and resembles an unsupervised recess on Lord of the Flies Island. Mr. Flowers clearly isn't growing his client base with his forums. I often say I am left of Marx, but the leftists posting in the albeadle threads are mostly hero-worshiping, irrational children, and Rob's (if it's Rob's) comments fit right in.

    P.S. I never said hitting-and-running on negative expectation games is wrong. It should reduce your overall losses, so it's good. Unless you're blessed by God (and/or country) and always win, in which case hitting-and-running's phraseology should be changed to hitting-and-running-and-hitting. Like a perpetual motion machine.
    Last edited by redietz; 07-30-2014 at 03:55 AM.

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