Page 2 of 9 FirstFirst 123456 ... LastLast
Results 21 to 40 of 173

Thread: Hit and Run report

  1. #21
    Originally Posted by redietz View Post
    P.S. I never said hitting-and-running on negative expectation games is wrong. It should reduce your overall losses, so it's good. Unless you're blessed by God (and/or country) and always win, in which case hitting-and-running's phraseology should be changed to hitting-and-running-and-hitting. Like a perpetual motion machine.
    Is it wrong on positive expectation machines -- those with a greater than 100% paytable, for example? I think not. I've played video poker games with a better than 100% paytable and unfortunately I lost. Keep in mind that you pretty much need a royal flush no matter what the paytable might say to get the "top return" of the game. And... we've all gone through those royal flush droughts.

    Just because the paytable says 100% or greater doesn't mean you will have a return of 100% or greater. So, I think playing a hit and run strategy even on a 100+% game makes a lot of sense.

  2. #22
    The laws of probability must not apply to you, Alan, which probably explains why you have never consulted a mathematician regarding any of this.

    I've always liked the concept of "if something makes sense to me, it must be correct." Probably explains a lot about this world in which we live.

    You manage to justify an inaccurate conclusion by stating a handful of accurate facts that have nothing to do with the conclusion. I'm sure our forum members with Latin backgrounds could enlighten us with the proper term for this.

  3. #23
    Red I'm surprised. It's the little people who have no other way than to make all these stupid claims about any poster who either supports/agrees with my vp approach and/or makes anti-Obama comments, to hope and pray and pretend they are me. Gives them life-meaning I guess. But for you, I'll stick to this discussion about positive vs. negative vp machines.

    Think about what you are saying....that a 99% game will yield any meaningful difference on any given day than a 101% machine. So I go in with $2500 trying to win a minimum of $125 before I go home. Is 8/5 BP really gonna make any difference vs. a 9/5 BP game? Of course not! And if not, then why in the world would you want to believe that it will the next time you play, or the next, and the next? You seem to be betting that after 7 or 8 times of doing this that the big loss will come, wiping out all the "little" wins. So "big" wins don't happen? Why, you've seen me post mine, which remain the disdain of several others here and will bug them the rest of their misery-laced lives. How about medium-sized win--ever heard of those?

    This is why hit & run vp is valuable to players who don't care to sit like zombies all day and play the game. And I've taken that a few steps further with a structured strategy, which is where all this win, win, win comes from that bothers the incompetent and envious here. In other words, "negative" does not mean you must lose. Not at all, clearly.

  4. #24
    Rob: keep the politics out of these discussions. This has nothing to do with President Obama, health care, border crossings, or anything else. Let's stick to the issue.

    redietz: sorry, but I can't pay my bills with probabilities. Nor, can I enter probabilities into the money slot on a video poker machine. Nor can I throw probabilities onto the layout in a craps game for my buy in.

    In the real world it's all about real money.

    If you think that because you are playing a positive paytable video poker game (let's say 100.17%) that you will have a return of 100.17% just because you are in the seat and pushing buttons, you have a real problem. As I mentioned above you have to have that royal flush (worth about 2.1% on most games) -- and it has to come on schedule. And for that matter, you have to have all of the other paytable combinations "on schedule" to have that 100.17% return. However...

    If you happen to have a hit and run approach you can actually beat the "expected return" of the game. For example, you make a $5 bet on Jacks or Better and hit two pair for $10 and you leave. That gave you a 200% return.

    Going back to my intial post with the quad aces on Super Aces Bonus paying $2,000. I was down $900 but cashed out with more than a 200% return. Is there a "positive" video poker game in a casino with a 200% return anywhere in a casino? Of course there isn't. So why play a video poker game with a 100.17% return when you have the ability to finish your play with a 110% return or a 120% return or a 200% return?

    Hit and run baby. It's real money.

  5. #25
    Also, Alan and Red, if any player is willing to risk a fairly large bankroll for a minimum 5% profit and if they can be satisfied enuf with that to leave on a regular basis, it rarely matters WHAT the theoretical return is, and the big hits are the same regardless what the pay table says for the FH and/or the Flush. And while it's not easy stomaching losses, in a structured denomination & game volatility approach, when that stubborn big hit comes, it's so big it's like no one else will or wants to believe it....even if you provide pictures.

    It's easy for anyone to come on and quote math theory assuming ungodly amounts of flawless play on nearly non-existent +EV machines. And that's exactly why the only consistently successful players are those that learn to intelligently adapt to what remains. I said this when I started out and I'll say it again as a free teachable moment: any machine can be beaten at any time, and slot club fluff never has a thing to do with it.

    Just read eddie's jealous rant. My picture's on the wall at Harvey's? I'll have to check it out. They did snap a photo after one of the wins, but only after one. Eddie, how about you go check & report--that ought to get your story-telling & blood boiling even more But please make sure you don't miss any work. I need you to help keep my fat SS check fat.You're good at make believe. Make believe you work to pay ME!
    Last edited by Rob.Singer; 07-30-2014 at 02:13 PM.

  6. #26
    there have been MANY sessions when I was a few hundred dollars ahead playing $1 or $2 Aces and Faces without hitting a quad. Those two pairs, trips and full houses add up.

    What's so bad about going to a casino, and leaving with a few hundred bucks extra from playing an hour or so?

    Note to Rob: I doubt your Social Security check is any fatter than anyone elses. LOL

  7. #27
    Originally Posted by Rob.Singer View Post
    Also, Alan and Red, if any player is willing to risk a fairly large bankroll for a minimum 5% profit and if they can be satisfied enuf with that to leave on a regular basis, it rarely matters WHAT the theoretical return is, and the big hits are the same regardless what the pay table says for the FH and/or the Flush. And while it's not easy stomaching losses, in a structured denomination & game volatility approach, when that stubborn big hit comes, it's so big it's like no one else will or wants to believe it....even if you provide pictures.

    It's easy for anyone to come on and quote math theory assuming ungodly amounts of flawless play on nearly non-existent +EV machines. And that's exactly why the only consistently successful players are those that learn to intelligently adapt to what remains. I said this when I started out and I'll say it again as a free teachable moment: any machine can be beaten at any time, and slot club fluff never has a thing to do with it.

    Just read eddie's jealous rant. My picture's on the wall at Harvey's? I'll have to check it out. They did snap a photo after one of the wins, but only after one. Eddie, how about you go check & report--that ought to get your story-telling & blood boiling even more But please make sure you don't miss any work. I need you to help keep my fat SS check fat.You're good at make believe. Make believe you work to pay ME!
    Well, since I'm not even American I doubt any of the taxes I pay filter down to you. But please explain to everyone here why you seem so smug with your monthly Social Security check when it doesn't even amount to a few minutes of play on those $25 VP machines you supposedly play. No point in trying to cover up your albeadle33 incarnation. Everyone knows the truth.

    You should however get ready to cut/paste and post those paragraphs about how you played professionally for 10 years, made $1million, and wrote for Gaming Today. After all, you need to push all the truthful posts and challenges to your ridiculous claims up and out of site so that all the new readers on the forum might actually be tricked into thinking you have credibility.

  8. #28
    We have two posters in agreement here: playing hit-and-run, they say, enables one to beat the expected return of the game.

    Sure it does. Einstein, move over. We have two new sheriffs in town.

  9. #29
    Originally Posted by redietz View Post
    We have two posters in agreement here: playing hit-and-run, they say, enables one to beat the expected return of the game.

    Sure it does. Einstein, move over. We have two new sheriffs in town.
    First, to Alan: did I say my SS check was "fatter" than anyone else's? I think my direct meaning was that I believe it is "fat", that's all. I hope you weren't driving when you read it.

    Red, you aren't looking at the responses within the context of your questioning. Daily, people win on those awful negative games. Some people even win such a large jackpot on them and never go into the red, ever, even if they play for decades. Still others are lifetime losers in spite of one or many winning trips playing these games, and there may be some besides myself who win on them regularly.

    Does that mean we've somehow altered the ER of the games? Nope, what it means is some got lucky up front in a big way and never gave the negative system a reasonable chance to win it and more back, and some use a method that gives the math as small a chance as possible at snatching daily wins back. I believe your friend Einstein would be playing exactly as I do given the opportunity, and he would most definitely learn a thing or two along the way, as all geniuses do.

  10. #30
    Originally Posted by redietz View Post
    We have two posters in agreement here: playing hit-and-run, they say, enables one to beat the expected return of the game.
    redietz, the "expected return" will always be the "expected return." The question is this: can you do better than the expected return? And the answer is yes if you decide to quit playing when ahead -- and that's from either getting lucky and hitting some winners that put your ahead or getting very lucky and hitting some big winners.

    What I don't understand is why there is so much criticism of players who decide to quit when ahead? Why is it such a crime to take the money and run? It seems that only the math guys are critical of this very common practice that I see in casinos all the time.

    Look guys -- I am very happy to leave the casino with more money than I walked in with. I would rather walk out with $1 more than I walked in with than walking out with $1 less than I walked in with because some math guy told me that it makes no sense to quit playing at a game with a positive pay table.

    I think the math guys who tell people that the positive pay table will ensure them some kind of profit whether it be in the short term, mid term or long term, should be maxing out their credit cards when they sit down at one of those machines. Yeah... they really should be maxing out their credit cards.

  11. #31
    A better system is to max out someone else's credit card.

    If you are up 200% ON A 101% game, you are still going to reduce your rate of return even if you hit 101% thereafter . So as Alan stated, how could it be bad to leave. And why would you risk the 200% return to try to grind out a 1% profit?

  12. #32
    Originally Posted by Alan Mendelson View Post
    Was this necessary here? In this particular thread? I don't think so. If you have something you want to say that is not part of the actual thread, please start another thread. Let's try to keep the threads "on target." I'm not censoring (unless personal insults start popping up) but I do want to keep the threads focused as much as possible. Thanks.
    You opened the door allowing the lurking skunk to come in and now you don't like the stink in the house? Just what did you expect?

  13. #33
    Vegas Vic... uncalled for.

  14. #34
    If Rob cut his posting eyeteeth at the LVAdvisor, I understand how he developed such a keen sense of empathy and diplomacy.

  15. #35
    Originally Posted by Alan Mendelson View Post
    Vegas Vic... uncalled for.
    I disagree. Your tolerance for Singer's crap is just larger than for the most of us. First posts since he came back are still filled with provocation. You can close your eyes for it, most of just don't anymore.

  16. #36
    Originally Posted by Alan Mendelson View Post
    What's so bad about going to a casino, and leaving with a few hundred bucks extra from playing an hour or so?
    Nothing's wrong with it. Where the discussion goes wrong time after time is when people start to claim they can do this consistantly for an undefined number of times. In the long run, you just won't beat the math. No matter which way you push the button, how often you play, if you stand on your hands while singing the national anthem. But go ahead and continue to beat that dead horse....

  17. #37
    Vegas_lover do me this favor: on your next ten casino visits tell me if you were ahead at some point by at least one dollar?

  18. #38
    I may be overstating this, but the two "Vegas" guys here seem to be getting wedgies over the completely pedestrian fact that it is possible to get and stay ahead of those terrible -EV machines, if you are bankrolled & disciplined enuf.

    The most pertinent point made above--that nobody is able to or will ever alter the mathematical ER of any game, has been curiously passed over by these two seriously experienced expert players, in favor of the 'ol standby when the going gets a little tough: "if you play negative games you HAVE to lose.....unless they're positive, that is".

  19. #39
    Originally Posted by Alan Mendelson View Post
    Vegas_lover do me this favor: on your next ten casino visits tell me if you were ahead at some point by at least one dollar?
    I can answer you that right now. I have NEVER had 10 casino visits in a row where I was ahead at least one dollar during the session. NEVER!!! And even if I experienced that situation it would mean nothing. Maybe I win 1 dollar 10 times in a row, what if I lose 11 dollars during the 11th session. You know, that pesty little thing called variance? Win goals and loss limits don't change that. Why do you think all the "experts" need comped rooms, free play, comped food and free trips to give them positive results at the end of the year?

  20. #40
    Vegas_lover you misread the request. Over your next ten trips please tell me if you were ever ahead by one dollar.

Thread Information

Users Browsing this Thread

There are currently 1 users browsing this thread. (0 members and 1 guests)

Tags for this Thread

Posting Permissions

  • You may not post new threads
  • You may not post replies
  • You may not post attachments
  • You may not edit your posts
  •