I've made no such claims. What I have said is that in many sessions of video poker I had a profit at some point in those sessions. Wouldn't be wonderful if we could all cash out at those peak profit points? In lieu of that ability doesn't it make sense to have a stop-loss strategy and to raise those stop-losses when you are winning?Originally Posted by arcimede$
That's what I've always said on this subject.
I've been reading this and I don't see where Alan or anyone else outside of strict AP's has made any determination that they know what will happen in the future. How many times have we seen them claim that, after being mired in a losing streak, they "know" the math will catch them up?
Alan, this is what you said earlier.
Note the "If someone were to play every day of the year, and quits with a $10 profit every day of the year, what's wrong with that?" ... I think any reasonable person would agree you are asserting a person can win "every day of the year". For the life of me I cannot understand why you are now stating you made no such claims.Originally Posted by Alan Mendelson
Last edited by arcimede$; 08-08-2014 at 06:34 PM.
Arc, here's a basic lesson in English and reading comprehension. I wrote If someone were to play every day of the year and If is the qualifier.Originally Posted by arcimede$
No where do I "assert" that a person can win every day of the year.
While someone can win every day of the year, I posed the situation about if they do.
You have on several occasions manufactured statements that I allegedly made and now you are trying to reinvent the English language. Be careful.
Sigh ... Alan, the "if" applied to playing every day, not getting ahead. That is what you wrote. Now, if that is not what you meant then fine, but don't blame others for interpreting your words the way they were written.Originally Posted by Alan Mendelson
To be clear you are now stating that no one could get ahead every time they played (extremely small probability)?
Last edited by arcimede$; 08-09-2014 at 05:54 AM.
Alan, here's where you need a lesson in arci-logic. You will never get thru to him in any argument or disagreement. He for some unknown reason, has told himself that he's "smarter than the rest", so whatever you say & however you say it, he simply will not ever allow it past his do-not-accept filter. Doesn't matter how right you are or even if you have absolute factual backup as you do here. As a geek he's a veteran of being continuously picked on, and whether or not you're doing that to him here, he only sees it in one unequivocal way.
Of course, you can always make fun of him and then wait for the personal problems to die down again before he comes back on....
Really Rob, really? Are you going to start this stupid shit again? What's your emotional age,.......15?Originally Posted by Rob.SingerAlan, here's where you need a lesson in arci-logic. You will never get thru to him in any argument or disagreement. He for some unknown reason, has told himself that he's "smarter than the rest", so whatever you say & however you say it, he simply will not ever allow it past his do-not-accept filter. Doesn't matter how right you are or even if you have absolute factual backup as you do here. As a geek he's a veteran of being continuously picked on, and whether or not you're doing that to him here, he only sees it in one unequivocal way.
Of course, you can always make fun of him and then wait for the personal problems to die down again before he comes back on....
Actually at this point, my frustration is with Arc. He has manufactured thoughts allegedly from me and he has shown no comprehension of the English language. How the heck can a Forum operate if people can't read and understand and speak the same language?
Now Arc is challenging my sentence structure. I give up.
Why am I not surprised? You might not agree about the English language but I think I get what Arci is trying to say. It's a math thing.
Rob will never miss a chance to jump in and throw some punches at Arci and you know it. But I guess that since you're frustrated with Arci right now it's ok. Ah well, carry on.
What are the chances Alan?Originally Posted by Alan Mendelson
Actually, Vegas_lover I think Rob is right. Arc has twisted what I wrote (as well as my thoughts) into something he (Arc) wants. Well sorry. Arc can't manufacture or twist my thoughts to fit his agenda. Rob recognized it.
Now, this doesn't mean Rob has carte blanche to go off on his tangents... so Rob -- don't do it.
But for heaven's sake, Arc, you stop it too.
Alan, the answer to what Arci is saying lies in answering my last question to you. What are the chances? Please share a calculation based on solid math. What's the chance that if you gamble 365 days in a row, you'll be able to cash out a $10 profit every day on a -EV game. What's the chance?
The chance might be zero but does that matter if you do cash out with a profit?
Care to dance around in circles some more?
In the last year there has only been ONE session when I didn't have a profit of at least $5 AT SOME POINT IN THE SESSION.
No I'm not going to dance around in circles Alan. You obviously believe in complete nonsense and you don't have the desire to be educated on the subject. Now you can get all irritated with me. Have you gambled every day last year? If so, you have a problem and should get some help. If not your latest comment was completely irrelevant. Do all of us a favor and for the next year: gamble every day and cash out at a $5 profit during every session you actually reach that point. Also tell us the total amount you lost during the sessions where you never reached the point of being up $5 and tell us how much you've earned at the end of the year (and as an extra bonus also take in consideration the costs you made to earn that "$5 per session"). My guess is you're going to feel like a complete dufus in about a year.Originally Posted by Alan Mendelson
Last edited by Vegas_lover; 08-09-2014 at 05:19 PM.
I don't think it'll matter much to someone who doesn't even play vp. VL has an agenda that doesn't coincide with your example. But I'll bet he remembers my post that said I've been ahead $5 at least 95% of the 400 or so sessions I played from 2000-2009. That's REALITY, not useless theory. Without the progression the number is probably more like 85%-90%.
Of course I don't gamble every day. But with the exception of one session (day) over the past year, I have had a profit of at least $5 at some point. And that is the point which you are somehow overlooking: while the math is the math HOW you manage your play is what will determine whether or not you leave the casino as a winner. Video poker allows multiple chances to win and if you can choose the "right moment" to cash out and leave you can actually do better than what the math says you should expect.Originally Posted by Vegas_lover
No one (not me, not Rob, not some others) disagrees with the math of the game. The point is -- and try to understand this -- is that even when you play a negative expectation game you can still have winning plays and leave with that profit.
I admit that too many times I have had big profits showing on my credit meter and failed to hit the cash out button. Had I been smarter and had I not been so greedy, my bottom line would be much better than it is today.
No one is forcing you to keep playing when you have a profit on your credit meter -- and that is the only point here. It has nothing to do with what the pay table is. The math is the math and everyone agrees -- even Rob. But how you decide to manage your money can help you have results that exceed the expected return.
What is so difficult in understanding this, Vegas_lover and Arc and all the rest of you??
Alan, you put that together flawlessly.
A lot of blablabla but it all comes down to this one sentense. Alan if you would live inside a casino this would all be wonderful. But your version of reality is just as much a theoretical version as proven math. You have had a profit of at least $5 at some point during all your vp sessions last year. Why would you think that situation would remain the same when you raise the number of sessions played during a year by X? Why limit yourself to one session every few days? Why limit yourself to one session a day? Why not sit down at the machine, cash out at that point where you're $5 ahead and start a new session? Why not repeat that routine at least a couple of times a day until your daily profit goes up to $25, after all it's only 5 sessions a day? Why limit yourself at all? The picture you paint is a guaranteed succes right as long a you just stick to cashing out when you're $5 ahead? So just like Singer you're going to use -EV vp machines as your personal ATM. Good for you, please try it out for one year and report your daily results in complete honesty.Originally Posted by Alan Mendelson
Please do yourself a favor: stop publishing this stuff on your forum because some poor smuck could actually think it's a "Best Buy".
Why is it so difficult for you to understand Alan that you haven't exactly found the magix elixer to beat -EV video poker? Good luck with beating the dead horse some more.
Last edited by Vegas_lover; 08-10-2014 at 01:10 AM.
Someone over on Wizard of Vegas summed up the answer to your question, and the answer went something like this: While you may not be able to beat a negative expectation game, you can win at a negative expectation game. Winning does not mean you "beat" the game. It only means you had some winning results.Originally Posted by Vegas_lover
You are "stuck" on the mathematical fact that you can't beat a negative expectation game. And that is a fact. I've said it about craps many times: the more you play the more you lose. But there are players in craps who have a profit at the game, and how? They quit when ahead. And so it is with video poker: the more you play the more you will lose, except when you quit when you're ahead.
We all agree you cannot "beat" a negative expectation game including video poker. But we have all had winning "hands" and winning "sessions" at video poker.
I asked you this once before and I will ask you again: over the next TEN times you play video poker, keep track of the number of sessions when you show a profit AT ANY TIME during that session. Unless you have the most miserable luck, I am pretty confident that you will have a profit at some point in most if not all of those sessions. And I am including a profit of "one bet."
The science says the more you play the more you will lose. The art is knowing when to take the money (profit) and run.
So now we have a professional artist telling us how to gamble. That's okay, except those of us who have been doing it for 35 years may know what we're doing.
There are currently 1 users browsing this thread. (0 members and 1 guests)
Posting Permissions
Reply With Quote