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Thread: Interesting situation with generous CET comps for one-time VP player

  1. #1
    I have a friend who was interested in trying to make Diamond or Seven Stars.

    He is not really deeply bankrolled, so negative variance could be a big deal to him.

    I warned him that VP has a lot of variance if you are playing at the $5 level in order to earn 2500 tiers in a day, but he shrugged me off and played anyway.

    It is important to know that this friend never had a TR card before, nor did he have a player's card at any other casino.

    He was new to VP, but studied it carefully and even carried a cheat-sheet with him so he knew he was always making the mathematically correct plays.

    Oddly enough, he chose the 99.96% 10-6 DDB at the Rio. I warned him that the machine had even bigger variance, but he was obsessed with the 99.96% return and kept saying, "But that means I'll only lose $4 per $10000 bet", and I couldn't talk him out of it. Even my tale of getting beat down at the machine myself around that time didn't dissuade him.

    I went with him while he played, and like me, he got absolutely clobbered. He did one misclick but other than that played perfectly.

    It was an epic beatdown and he didn't even play that long. He lost $1500 in that session and quit. (It's funny that the only two sessions I've ever witnessed at that machines, one mine and one his, were both brutal beatdowns in a short time.)

    He yanked his card out and disgustedly said, "Fuck this. I don't know what I was thinking. I'm never playing this shit again." He tossed his TR card in the trash as we left.

    I just got an e-mail from him today.

    Apparently he is now getting offers worth $450-$500 each, throughout August, September, and October. He was gleeful in his e-mail, stating that he could actually make back twice what he lost by simply redeeming these offers and never playing again.

    Keep in mind that I am a Seven Stars member and my offers are like $50 each, or at best $100. I get a little bit more in the casinos where I played (Laughlin, Tahoe, Rincon), but nothing like this guy.

    Also keep in mind that he barely earned any tier credits because that machine only gives you one per $50 in, and he quit so soon.

    So this is an interesting situation.

    Even when I played heavily over a few-month period at places like Rincon, my offers were still crap because I had already established a pattern of both optimal play and overcomping.

    This guy shows up once, loses $1500 when running WAY below average luck-wise, and gets lucrative offers that far exceed mine.

    So this made me wonder....

    Did the computer give him these offers because it erroneously pegged him as a bad VP player (since it can only go by results)?

    Or did the computer give him these offers because he showed up and spent $1500 right off the bat?

    Or is it a combo of both?

    I have long maintained that the computer analyzes VP results to make a skill approximation, but I didn't know that it applied to single sessions, where literally anything can happen.

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  2. #2
    This is especially interesting because my friend essentially got to play $1500 worth of VP "on the house".

    Through one medium-sized loss session, he generated enough comp offers for himself to be worth several times his loss, which I never thought possible!

    Does this mean any new player to CET can do the same, or does it require running unusually bad like he did?
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  3. #3
    First of all he was playing at the Rio and putting $1500 through the machine quickly without even checking in to the hotel (he wasn't staying there, right?) immediately put him on the radar as a high roller... by Rio standards.

    A few months ago when I got a $500 free play ticket in the mail for use at any Caesars Las Vegas casino I played it at the Rio. Two days later I got a PHONE CALL from a host offering me the world to stay there. (Well, they offered everything in the world EXCEPT free play which is why I didn't take them up on it.)

    I've written about this before: if you want to "fool" the CET computers, walk into a high limit slots area and insert your TR card and make a $100 bet and leave -- win or lose. That will trigger the computers to think you are a high roller who was disappointed for some reason or another and the offers will pour in. You can do this ONCE at a casino because you can only fool the computer once.
    It's all about quitting when ahead.

  4. #4
    Hi Dan:

    I do not believe it is limited to Rio. I believe that CET has a special program to "reel in" first time Total Reward Players who have lost surprisingly quickly. Gary Loveman of CET discussed this in an interview at National Public Radio. Here is the URL:

    Loveman starts discussing that program around 13:15 on the podcast.

    Regards, FAB
    Last edited by FABismonte; 07-30-2014 at 01:05 PM.

  5. #5
    Well, this could be a very valuable piece of information, and my salute to Dan for sharing it.

  6. #6
    Hi Redietz:

    I agree. Dan seems to have identified a Do It Yourself loss reimbursement plan.

    (1) Sign up (a close friend or relative) for a first time Total Rewards Card; (2) Go to high limit salon at CET and try to win big at high volatility games; (3a) If one wins - take the money and run; (3b) If you lose -- wait for attractive offers you can milk to at least get value of losses (whether by rooms, meals, tournaments or free play) reimbursed.

    I wonder if a DIY loss rebate would work at Bellagio for me given the fact that I have never had an MLife card?

    Regards, FAB

  7. #7
    Careful. Offers are "name specific" so you won't be able to use offers issued in your friend's name. Besides... do you really think the comps will offset the loss?
    It's all about quitting when ahead.

  8. #8
    Originally Posted by Alan Mendelson View Post
    Careful. Offers are "name specific" so you won't be able to use offers issued in your friend's name. Besides... do you really think the comps will offset the loss?
    I agree that that comps are name specific but many people have people they could work with like a non-gambling spouse or a mother that would want her own room anyway.

    I agree there is a risk but Dan's friend already got free play offers equivalent to his losses. Factor in associated rooms ect, maybe he is getting more than his losses.

    Moreover the comps do not have to equal the losses to for this to be an interesting gambit. If you hit a high volatility game like $100 slots, you may come close to a "free roll" with an outright chance at hitting a jackpot.

    I am not saying it is a foolproof gambit, but it is an interesting strategy to "judo" the casino trying to reel high rollers to lose

  9. #9
    I put zero value on free rooms from Caesars. The only compensation on losses I would value are free play. And that will never match your losses.
    It's all about quitting when ahead.

  10. #10
    Alan is absolutely right about getting extraordinary comps with just a miniscule amount of play in a high limit machine. And if you play a bit more the offers increase, almost exponentially. After I hit that $100k winner at Wynn after really not a lot of play which was over six months ago, my offer came in for 3 nights in a suite with $600 free play and RFB. I probably will never use it because of time and distance, plus we've already spent an unbelievable 3 days at full RFB there in the past.

    Dan's friend's offer sounds right, and may have even come in a tad light. There's no mystery casino hidden agenda or anything else slippery or nefarious. He got that offer because he is a new player to the TR account, and because they are betting that these amounts are enuf to get him back in so they can empty his wallet, and more, once again. And guess what--that's EXACTLY what he will probably do. This is not rocket science, and casinos are the enemy, not your friend. Just as are all those "wonderfully helpful" casino hosts that so many are roped into believing they're their friends.

  11. #11
    While I disagree with a lot of what Rob says, it has always seemed to me that his style of play lends itself to being characterized by computers and hosts alike as an impetuous, undisciplined high roller, which is the perception the level-leaping creates. He should get better offers with that profile than anyone pumping the same amounts through the machines in a normal fashion. It's a beneficial side effect of playing according to his style.

  12. #12
    $600 free play at Wynn is a junk offer. I wonder if the RFB is conditional on additional play?
    It's all about quitting when ahead.

  13. #13
    Originally Posted by Alan Mendelson View Post
    $600 free play at Wynn is a junk offer. I wonder if the RFB is conditional on additional play?
    Yes it probably is, but it's the most I've ever been offered at Wynn/Encore. He is one cheap SOB you know. He doesn't even give free drinks to any vp players at his bars, even on the $10 games.

    RFB is not conditional on play--at least it wasn't my last time. It also includes shows and limo rides. The last time, I regularly drank $650 shots of 25 yr. old Scotch. My food bill was also in the thousands with the wine etc., and I ran up the bill as a result of anger over being denied a comp beer while playing $1 thru $10 at the bar. I lost $300 and quit, and did not put another penny into their machines during that stay. The only reason I went back six months ago was because our daughter was there.

  14. #14
    Welcome back Rob!

    Man that 25 year old scotch must have been smooooth....

  15. #15
    Originally Posted by dannyj View Post
    Welcome back Rob!

    Man that 25 year old scotch must have been smooooth....
    Yeeeeessssss it was! I bought a bottle after that stay, and it was "only" $500. Wynn makes a bundle on every bottle, and he takes advantage of the many clueless foreigners always staying there who pay for that stuff. That's exactly how the bartender told it to me. BTW all you nervous tipsters--I left a dollar a drink, just as I do for a bottle of water or any comp or paid drink. And guess what? All the tip-talk by the bartender did nothing to intimidate me into leaving more than a buck a drink. His irritated dagger-type stares? Went right thru me without a thought.

  16. #16
    I don't drink so please clarify about the scotch: was the bottle $650 or each shot $650?
    It's all about quitting when ahead.

  17. #17
    The shot. It's "only" $350 at Bellagio.

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