Originally Posted by
Dan Druff
Keep in mind that your chances of hitting a royal are 2.5% on 1000 hands, 6.25% on 2500 hands, and 12.5% on 5000 hands.
I disagree with your values and the method you used.
1000/40000 - .025 is NOT how to calculate the chances of getting at least 1 royal in N hands played.
Sure, you will say it is close, but your method is wrong at 40k hands played
40k/40k = 1
and no way at all will get always get 1 or more in 40k hands played.
ugh...
here is how it is done using the 40k value too
1 - (39999/40000)^ N
N = number of hands to play
^ = to the power of (the number of times you multiply a number by itself)
using a calculator comes in real handy too as does Excel
here is a probability table I came up with
Code:
hands no royal at least 1 wrong way
1000 0.975309607 0.024690393 0.025
2500 0.939412329 0.060587671 0.0625
5000 0.882495524 0.117504476 0.125
10000 0.778798349 0.221201651 0.25
20000 0.606526869 0.393473131 0.5
40000 0.367874843 0.632125157 1
80000 0.1353319 0.8646681 2
160000 0.018314723 0.981685277 4
0.018314723 = about 1 in 55
so there are many people playing VP perfectly and having a long long long wait (160,000 hands worth)
for a Royal.
Time to go to the Craps table and hit a 6 point Fire bet instead I say
please thank Alan for his lifetime work,
maybe not about his marriages. I guess a man that is so handsome is not the only reason to remain married to him.
I am only on my first one and did not get married at a Craps table.
Originally Posted by
Dan Druff
So even if you play $1, you will still likely NOT hit a royal. Therefore, in order to keep variance low, you need to understand your odds without one.
yes agree 100%.
thank you
the wait time for a Royal can be in the hundreds of thousands too.
The math says so
Sally
see you all at Rincon