To The Nines

[Rob.Singer]

In what might...or should...be considered more provocative evidence that the machines just may not always be totally on the up & up (like players want them to be and so many of the math people will always claim they are because they say they wouldn't play them if they weren't) you decide what to believe after reading the following.

If you remember, a few weeks ago I posted that I was in a $7500 losing streak since returning to Tahoe. Since then I've won around $4000 of that back in multiple sessions playing no higher than $2. Yesterday, after a nice day trip by car to Chico to have lunch and a tour of the Sierra Nevada Brewing Co., I went out for what turned into a long session for me: 2 hours. I only played dollars because my mind was a little numb from the 400 mile drive and I wouldn't need to be keeping track of credits or goals or anything. I played just like most of you do, and I lost $280 by the time I began yawning.

I played only one machine. The game was a bad pay table (7/5) TBP+. I had four quads, none of them of the special variety. But the questionable part was when the 9's began appearing more frequently than an angry black man telling lies while looking into the cameras in Ferguson, Mo.

After one hour, I swept a RAZGU and got four 9's. This was satisfying because I'd only been dealt TWO trips up until then, and I converted neither. So two hands later I was DEALT four 9's. And for the remainder of my time on that machine I was dealt a total of EIGHT trips...with all of them being three 9's.

Random--or not? I say no. It got to the point of the whole thing being stupid. But for casinos, that's the beauty of possibly running biased machines. All we can do is jump up and down over it. Players can prove nothing, and the math crazies will just claim (as in "nervously hope") it's all "random distribution" like they always do in order to keep their sanity and a strong justification to keep on banging away. Some people might say "call the Gaming Commission over it!" Yeah right. If little things like this actually involve some sort of bias, you can bet IGT, the casino(s), and the NGC are all in agreement on something.

[Alan Mendelson]

Rob, I've had "strange" sessions when I've had quad Jacks or quad Kings or even quad 9s multiple times in the same session, and then I've had sessions when I had no quads. I don't think that means the machine is not random... I interpret that to mean the machine is random. In fact, it's the same machine -- machine #3116 at Rincon which is the machine I play probably 90% of the time at Rincon.

There is another Forum member who also plays that machine and about a month ago he had quad Aces four times while playing double double bonus. And then there are sessions when the aces never appear.

On my very last trip to Rincon playing #3116 I was dealt trip Kings three hands in a row. That was the first time in my life anything like that happened... but I've been playing VP for more than ten years and I guess it was about time for it to happen.

Bottom line: I think your experience is insignificant.

[Count Room]

Yeah I tend to agree with Alan on this one. With such a wide range of possibilities in VP you will invariably run into what looks like amazing patterns within randomness. I won't go so far as to say Rob is completely wrong, because there are real stories of gaffed machines. I just wouldn't lose much sleep over it.

Here's an interesting story to follow up on that:

A math professor once told his students to do a homework assignment flipping a coin 200 times and to record the results. When the students turned in their work he could tell right away when they cheated with fake results without actually flipping the coin. How could he tell? Because the odds are astronomically against anyone not flipping a coin on the same side six times in a row during a 200 flip trial. Most students didn't know this and the cheaters could easily be flunked.

Six flips of a coin on the same side looks like a freakish occurrence (1/64 chance), but it's to be expected within a set of 200 flips.

[Rob.Singer]

Rob, I've had "strange" sessions when I've had quad Jacks or quad Kings or even quad 9s multiple times in the same session, and then I've had sessions when I had no quads. I don't think that means the machine is not random... I interpret that to mean the machine is random. In fact, it's the same machine -- machine #3116 at Rincon which is the machine I play probably 90% of the time at Rincon.

There is another Forum member who also plays that machine and about a month ago he had quad Aces four times while playing double double bonus. And then there are sessions when the aces never appear.

On my very last trip to Rincon playing #3116 I was dealt trip Kings three hands in a row. That was the first time in my life anything like that happened... but I've been playing VP for more than ten years and I guess it was about time for it to happen.

Bottom line: I think your experience is insignificant.

I think you missed the most significant points. First and above all, getting 9's on the sweep and then on the deal within three hands, is one of those "astronomical" events on its own. But when you add in the fact that the next eight sets of DEALT TRIPS were all 9's, it goes beyond astronomical. I have been dealt similar trips three hands in a row more than a dozen times in my playing life. Have you ever seen anything even anywhere near what I experienced. And quad Aces four times? Was one dealt and one hit on the sweep, with nothing but trip Aces being dealt? I've seen four 10's twice in a row and again two other times during my session. Twice. Being Aces means nothing more or less.

Secondly, I neglected to include players like you into the group who will never, ever accept that any machines are gaffed, even with a court's acknowledgement, because video poker has such a big hold on your and their overall lives. In short, a question that should be asked of all hooked players is if they could ever go on without it. That's what really drives belief.

[Alan Mendelson]

Sorry Rob. Been there, done that. Not significant to me. Didn't you get two royals back to back? Was that machine rigged too?

[Rob.Singer]

Sorry Rob. Been there, done that. Not significant to me. Didn't you get two royals back to back? Was that machine rigged too?

Yes I did, and that's not nearly in the same category of significance as what I witnessed yesterday. That's the part you don't understand--the odds of this happening are off the charts because it's basically impossible. I gave up after the number reached 19 digits. Back to back royals are not that uncommon. I'm betting that if you experienced exactly the same as what I had to sit thru, it would be a whole different thing to you. Reading about it and being a part of it are two entirely different things. And no, it has never happened to you before as you're eluding to.

[Alan Mendelson]

Hey Rob... if I got eight sets of dealt trip 9s in a row I would not complain. I'd be cheering.

Thou protesteth too much.

But let us know if it happens again, okay?

[Rob.Singer]

Hey Rob... if I got eight sets of dealt trip 9s in a row I would not complain. I'd be cheering.

Thou protesteth too much.

But let us know if it happens again, okay?

Right over (and I hope, not thru) you're head again. I wasn't complaining about two quads or dealt trips. Not at all. Why? I've explained that how this occurred is basically impossible in a totally random situation. I don't think you understand the depth of this overall event. When the only trips you get dealt in about 500 hands are of the same value as the two quads that came up in the two most difficult methods of receiving quads, anyone who has even a "smidgen" of statistical understanding, will comprehend that this is an impossible random event.

But you're safe--they haven't taken the machines out of casinos yet....

[redietz]

Yeah, I have to agree with Rob on this, although I'll consult a mathematician to try to get a ballpark figure. Getting the same card trips back-to-back is rare enough. When you get to eight consecutive, quads aside, my default explanation is not chance (and the machines are working swell).

Mr. Mendelson, if you were playing live poker, and this happened, would your explanation of choice be chance?

[Alan Mendelson]

I was slammed over at the Wizard of Vegas forum when I told how I was at a craps table at Caesars and a shooter threw 18 elevens in a row. I was called a liar but I told the truth.

Now if Rob is telling the truth then it's another example of how anything can happen.

Rob should play that same machine again and report back.

[Rob.Singer]

I'll play it and let you know.

No way the chair-ridden math geeks, transvestites, and collection of self-annointed do-nothing AP's and Einstein's on the Wizard's site are going to agree with something you actually SAW inside a real casino while they stayed home and waited for someone to come on and explain an experience so they could pretend they were ferocious casino brutes as they regularly do. If you saw eighteen 11's in a row thrown then the dice were loaded, just as my machine was victimized by a rogue programmar with a skewed sense of humor.

[redietz]

Why, Rob, don't you know that if a casino employed loaded dice, the Nevada Gaming Commission would catch them, and they would be put out of business?

Of course, there's the matter of how one would catch them. Then there's the matter of whether there are actually laws on the books regarding what types of dice a casino must employ. Then there's the matter of how one would catch them, oh, I said that already.

[Rob.Singer]

Didn't you realize Red--casinos are cleaner than mosques!

[regnis]

I once tried to get a loose die that went off the table. As even non craps players can imagine, if a die goes off the table, they are all over it to get it back. It is immediately inspected to make sure there was no swap. I actually had one fly off the table and I put a foot over it, They searched for quite a while and finally did make us all lift our feet. I would have liked to have gotten it tested.

[Rob.Singer]

I just realized I left a fairly important point out of my original post--although it's not earth-shattering on its own, but certainly adds to the anomaly. About a half hour after getting dealt & RAZGU'd four 9's in three hands, I held two 9's and again got four 9's. This is IN ADDITION to the eight sets of 9's, which were my only trips. The only other quad I hit was by holding a J and getting three more on the draw.

I've sent messages out to see if others concur with this truly being out of vp sight.

[Alan Mendelson]

Regarding the 18 yo's in a row: I doubt the dice were loaded. Twice during this string of elevens the stickman "James" checked the dice by moving them on the table with his stick to see if they would stop on random faces and they did. The shooter was a random shooter who just let them fly. Ironically none of us on the table even bet the 11 once -- since the point was already established and the "yo" is not a "good bet." We stood there in amazement as one yo followed another. (There were three of us players -- the shooter, his friend, and me.) At WOV the math guys pulled out their calculators to say this was a one in so many billion times event that I must be lying or exaggerating or mis-counted... but it really was 18 yo's in a row.

Rob: if you play that machine again and find too many 9s appearing this time you will have to take out your cell phone and without stopping video the machine's performance. And this time, the proof can't be locked up in a storage locker that won't be opened by your heirs after your death.

I don't doubt you had a string of trip 9s dealt -- I just don't think you'll see it again.

You've played a lot of video poker in your life and these strange events happen. I've played a lot of craps in my life and these strange events happen. I don't care what the math says. If the math says it's a one in a billion times event than in fact that was the one in a billion times that it happened -- and that's the bottom line.

when a craps player tells me he rolled a 13 with two six sided dice, that's when I'll call him a liar. When a video poker player in a five card game tells me he drew a seven card royal that's when I'll call him a liar.

[Rob.Singer]

I'm working on a confirmed answer to the odds of what happened. One in even hundreds of billions doesn't begin to identify this event. The problem has four different events and many different individual opportunities to go thru. I don't even know if there can be an accurate answer without long hours of working it. Right now like I said I'm at 19 figures, and I don't even know what to call it. But I could be wrong.

You ran into disbelief at Wizard's because that collection of self-annointed geniuses wants absolutely nothing to rock their monotonous, boring worlds. If they don't see it they don't believe it, and they don't ever want to see it.

[redietz]

Mr. Mendelson observed loaded dice. One out of six to the 18th power is well nigh impossible without some outside influences. You have to ask yourself what's more likely in this case -- the event itself or the use of loaded dice?

Sir Arthur Conan Doyle had his famous detective say it best, "When you have eliminated the impossible, whatever remains, however improbable, must be the truth."

[Alan Mendelson]

If they were going to load the dice, why load them for an 11 which on a come out is a winner, and in fact, is a winning combination? The problem we made (the players) is that we didnt bet the 11. We could have busted Caesars with 18 yo's in a row. Imagine betting the table max which I think is $4,000 for the 11. It could have been $60,000 X 18 = $1,080,000 and there were three of us. And I might be wrong about the $4,000 max bet... it might be $8,000.

I don't believe any casino would risk loaded dice. If you could tell the dice were loaded to favor any number -- even a 7 -- you would simply bet accordingly. It would be stupid for a casino to have loaded dice. And this has NOTHING to do with a casino risking its license -- this has EVERYTHING to do with players figuring out how to bet WITH the loaded dice.

[Rob.Singer]

It's time to accept that all kinds of seemingly irrational and inexplicable things happen in casinos. 18 consecutive rolls of this "yo" without doubt had some outside influence defying understandable math of some sort, because it just doesn't happen. The same goes with what I witnessed. And then, look at what I've been able to accomplish over the years, mostly on the "negative EV" machines. Many believe it defies the math, but I know the outside influences I've incorporated into my playing style that totally goes against all casino desires and expectations of gamblers, has made the important difference.

Casinos live by the math and only the math. That obviously spells doom for all but the luckiest and most innovative gamblers. I also believe that at times, casinos need to do things that go beyond the math too. Welcome to it.