Volunteer Gambling Reports for 2015?

[Alan Mendelson]

Is there anyone here willing to pledge to dutifully report their 2015 gambling results here? It could be a simple "I won" or "I lost" without giving dollar amounts.

You must pledge to be complete and honest.

[regnis]

Is there anyone here willing to pledge to dutifully report their 2015 gambling results here? It could be a simple "I won" or "I lost" without giving dollar amounts.

You must pledge to be complete and honest.

I can give you mine now:

Video Poker--big loser

Horses--winner

Craps--to be determined

[Count Room]

I can give you mine now:

Video Poker--big loser

Horses--winner

Craps--to be determined

Regnis: Is your winning at the horses due to that large exotic pick-6 you hit a while back? My memory is vague. I never could win at the races, and it's damn hard with pari-mutuel takeout taxes ranging from 17 percent for straight wagers up to 25 percent for exotics.

Can you imagine Wall Street brokers charging a commission like that for each trade? Jesus...The world economy would come to a screeching halt in no time at all!

[regnis]

Regnis: Is your winning at the horses due to that large exotic pick-6 you hit a while back? My memory is vague. I never could win at the races, and it's damn hard with pari-mutuel takeout taxes ranging from 17 percent for straight wagers up to 25 percent for exotics.

Can you imagine Wall Street brokers charging a commission like that for each trade? Jesus...The world economy would come to a screeching halt in no time at all!

Of course a big pick 6 helps, but for me, horses are different than VP in that I don't need the "Royal" to be a winner. I have spent a life time betting horses and it is just something I am pretty good at.

While the take out is a big problem and is killing racing, the one good thing in pari-mutuel wagering is that I am not betting against the house. I am betting against the public---95% of whom haven't got a clue. So if you avoid overbet favorites, look for overlays, and stick with the type of races that you are good at, you have a nice advantage.

[Count Room]

Of course a big pick 6 helps, but for me, horses are different than VP in that I don't need the "Royal" to be a winner. I have spent a life time betting horses and it is just something I am pretty good at.

While the take out is a big problem and is killing racing, the one good thing in pari-mutuel wagering is that I am not betting against the house. I am betting against the public---95% of whom haven't got a clue. So if you avoid overbet favorites, look for overlays, and stick with the type of races that you are good at, you have a nice advantage.

A long time ago when my dad started taking me to the track, he showed me "Dr. Z's" system of looking for value in the place and show pools relative to the win odds generally for favorites. It was a boring approach for someone wanting "action", but I will admit there are small glimmers of value to be found here and there. Looking at trainer patterns and jockey changes seemed to be interesting, also. Lots of obscure angles you can play, to be sure. (Andy Beyer also reminds me of the good old days, haha!) Hope it's worth the effort for you.

Dr. Z on Amazon: http://www.amazon.com/Dr-Beat-Racetr.../dp/0688072216

[Alan Mendelson]

Betting the place or show position: that's what my fraternity brothers and I did back with Canonero at the Belmont Stakes when it was expected to win the Triple Crown. We thought it would be a very safe bet to bet Canonero to place or show -- because the betting pool was so big on the win. Canonero didn't win, or place, or show.

[Count Room]

Betting the place or show position: that's what my fraternity brothers and I did back with Canonero at the Belmont Stakes when it was expected to win the Triple Crown. We thought it would be a very safe bet to bet Canonero to place or show -- because the betting pool was so big on the win. Canonero didn't win, or place, or show.

Alan, I have to bring up two related items in response to your story:

a) Way back in the day when I went to the races, there were some very rare days when someone would plunk down $100,000 to show on a huge odds-on favorite (usually 1-5 or 2-5 odds or so). It created a loss for the track when the horse finished in the money because there was not enough money in the show pool to pay off the $2.10 minimum payout; the track has to pay the difference. I saw this happen 4 or 5 times and never saw the bettor (or bettors?) lose the $100,000. Takes **lls of steel to chase $100K after $5K though.

b) Dr. Z's system is actually a pretty good one for value players, because it's been shown the public tends to be pretty accurate with exact odds of a horse winning over the long run of a large sampling of races (my emphasis). Once or twice a day you might see a glaring inefficiency in the place & show pool that overcompensates you for the risk reflected by the win odds. Takes quite a bit of work and careful study of the tote board, though, and most races you will simply pass up where Dr. Z is concerned (ie. no value bet available).

[regnis]

I won't go into most of my "systems". But for me, mainly, it's BREEDING BREEDING BREEDING. If I stick to breeding, I am likely to win.


I have seen the bridge jumpers (people who make the huge show bet) lose all too often. One loss and you can never get even. In fact, the better play is to find a race where there is a bridge jumper and bet other horses to show. If his heavy favorite runs out, you can get payoffs of triple figures to show rather than the normal few bucks. Other than that, I do not bet to show.

[arcimede$]

Since I am basically back to even for the year due to hitting some long overdue royals my final result will be determined by my luck over the next week.

I looked over my RF history and found some real interesting data. Over the past million (data from 2010) or so hands I had 23 RFs when 25+ is the expected number. Pretty close. However, the distribution has been something to behold. In the first 435K hands I had 17 RFs. I then went 507K hands with only 2 RFs and have now had 4 in the last 70K hands.

I should mention that the RF cycle is about 39K hands with OEJs which has been almost exclusively the game I played.

[dannyj]

Alan,
Your pledge is for "2015" right? If so, I'm in. We haven't done so in the past, but starting in Jan., my wife and I are going to keep a log of $ won/lost, games played, etc., for every trip we make to a casino . For the past several years we have relied on win/loss statements, losing track slips (some ours) to offset tax write off claims from w2g's in the event we were audited. Never have been....yet.

[Alan Mendelson]

Alan,
Your pledge is for "2015" right? If so, I'm in. We haven't done so in the past, but starting in Jan., my wife and I are going to keep a log of $ won/lost, games played, etc., for every trip we make to a casino . For the past several years we have relied on win/loss statements, losing track slips (some ours) to offset tax write off claims from w2g's in the event we were audited. Never have been....yet.

I am going to do the same thing. And I am going to break it down by game: VP, craps, poker.

Thanks.

[Dan Druff]

Alan, I have to bring up two related items in response to your story:

a) Way back in the day when I went to the races, there were some very rare days when someone would plunk down $100,000 to show on a huge odds-on favorite (usually 1-5 or 2-5 odds or so). It created a loss for the track when the horse finished in the money because there was not enough money in the show pool to pay off the $2.10 minimum payout; the track has to pay the difference. I saw this happen 4 or 5 times and never saw the bettor (or bettors?) lose the $100,000. Takes **lls of steel to chase $100K after $5K though.

I saw it happen.

It was in 96 or 97 at Hollywood Park.

The horse's name was Gentlemen.

It was billed as a showdown between two premier horses, but Gentlemen's expected competition got scratched.

Well over a million dollars went on Gentlemen to show. There were only 5 horses running, all of which were scrubs, so it looked like a lock.

I personally put $200 on it to win $10.

Gentlemen finished last.

The entire crowd fell into a shocked silence, and then loudly booed when Gentlemen walked back.

Turned out Gentlemen was sick and shouldn't have been run.

[regnis]

That's why I don't recommend betting those heavy favorites to show. If someone bet 100,000 to show on Gentleman and he finished in the money, he would pay $2.10 to show and you would get back $105,000 for the $100,000 bet.

In that race, Gentleman ran out of the money. Look how many you have to win in a row to make up for that 1 loss. You have to win the next 20 just to break even. That's why they're called Bridge Jumpers. Now in that race, if you bet other horses to show, they would ordinarily pay between $2.60 and $4.00. But with all the $$$ on Gentleman, you can get a huge overlay and get $40 or more to show on these other horses, if Gentleman runs out.

[Vegas Vic]

Since I am basically back to even for the year due to hitting some long overdue royals my final result will be determined by my luck over the next week.

I looked over my RF history and found some real interesting data. Over the past million (data from 2010) or so hands I had 23 RFs when 25+ is the expected number. Pretty close. However, the distribution has been something to behold. In the first 435K hands I had 17 RFs. I then went 507K hands with only 2 RFs and have now had 4 in the last 70K hands.

I should mention that the RF cycle is about 39K hands with OEJs which has been almost exclusively the game I played.

What is your procedure for tracking the number of hands you play?

[regnis]

I saw it happen.

It was in 96 or 97 at Hollywood Park.

The horse's name was Gentlemen.

It was billed as a showdown between two premier horses, but Gentlemen's expected competition got scratched.

Well over a million dollars went on Gentlemen to show. There were only 5 horses running, all of which were scrubs, so it looked like a lock.

I personally put $200 on it to win $10.

Gentlemen finished last.

The entire crowd fell into a shocked silence, and then loudly booed when Gentlemen walked back.

Turned out Gentlemen was sick and shouldn't have been run.

We had one of these Saturday at Santa Anita (thank you very much). A horse by the name of Secret Circle is one of the best sprinters in America, He has run in the Breeders Cup (the super bowl of horse racing) several years, and ran this past November . He was now in a race for $100,000, which is nothing for a horse like him. My friend asked me why he was in such a cheap race. I told him there could be only one reason---he is lame.

Over 50% of both the place and show pools were on him. If he ran out of the money, the payoffs would be large. He ran out--my horse paid 22.40 to place and 22.40 to show.

This opportunity only arises a handful of times a year--we were all over it.

[arcimede$]

What is your procedure for tracking the number of hands you play?

Casino points. While not necessarily perfect, it works out at the 2 casinos I've been playing at.

[Alan Mendelson]

Casino points. While not necessarily perfect, it works out at the 2 casinos I've been playing at.

Yes, using points when you just play video poker is probably the best indicator of the number of hands played. I use my point count to figure the number of hands played. While I play craps, I have found out that with my low betting level and my limited time playing craps, the number of points from craps probably doesn't impact my overall point totals by much.

[ke6cdh]

Would you believe the reports Alan? I have shown you 2013 profit and loss statement from CET and you still did not seem to believe it.

[Alan Mendelson]

Would you believe the reports Alan? I have shown you 2013 profit and loss statement from CET and you still did not seem to believe it.

I know you and I trust you. Perhaps you'd like to post it to see if others believe.

I've wrapped up 2014 with a losing session that was much bigger than I want to admit to. In 2015 my play will be limited until we see what Caesars is doing with the bankruptcy. I will play my free play at Rincon in January.

[Alan Mendelson]

January 3: Rincon. Used my free play only and lost it. I played Double Double Bonus hoping to hit some big hand but didn't.