Harrah’s “field goal game” and fire bet strategy questions

[FABismonte]

I enjoy gambling stories so I decided to share my story as well as provide my tale to create the context for a couple of question to see if members of this Forum would have done something differently under the circumstances.

Last weekend I was at Harrah’s Lake Tahoe. I was provided a total of three types of free play. One, a Winter Promo of $1,100 in free play. Two, an Express Free Play coupon of $375 in free play. Three, a mailed opportunity combined with my hotel stay to get ONE of the following: (1) $225 in food credit; (2) 17500 in reward credits; (3) 7X Reward Credits earned on Slot play by me over the weekend (3X for video poker credits); or (4) Up to $700 free play for Harrah’s “Field Goal Game.” Given the relatively large free play options given me, I committed to myself only to play and risk the free play this weekend. BTW, I was alone this weekend and I also had a $100 food credit coupon to use this trip so I was not interested in food credits as an option.

Played at 9/6 JOB triple play the $1,100 in free play and the $375 in Express Play coupons and got out $1,100 after a long session. I then decided to try the “Field Goal Game.” To redeem the mailed opportunity I was allowed ONE time to swipe my Total Rewards card at a promotional kiosk and choose one of the four choices listed above. I went to the kiosk located near the casino cage and was given the four choices. Notably however the “up to $700 Field Goal Game” option in the mail now was presented on the kiosk screen as “Win between $10 to $700.” The mailer I received did not describe the $10 floor in free play I could receive. In my mind, faced with the other four options, I thought that maybe $200 was a realistic minimum. Besides, I had never played the “Field Goal Game” before and thought it may be fun. So I pressed the option of the “Field Goal Game.” Oddly, I was prompted to “You have chosen the Field Goal Game Option, press again that option to confirm.” Now I was getting nervous about my choice. Was that some kind of warning?. It reminded me of the video poker situation where you are dealt 4 Aces and you mistakenly hold only three. If you call a slot attendant and convince her that the button are sticky and they play back the hand from manipulating the computer memory, sometimes they will pay you for the 4 Aces. Was this “reconfirmation” Harrah’s Lake Tahoe’s way of saying – “YOU WERE WARNED AND YOU STILL STUCK WITH THE WRONG CHOICE SO -- SUCKS TO BE YOU!”

Ignoring my inner voice, I pressed “Confirm” and played the “Field Goal Game.” I was then presented with three choices: (1) Attempt a Field Goal at 20 yards; (2) Attempt a Field Goal at 40 yards; or (3) Attempt a Field Goal at 60 yards. I figured that 60 yards was too long a risk and 20 yards would probably only win me a little so I went for what I thought was a medium risk. So I pressed attempt at 40 yard. I was again prompted “you have chosen a 40 yard attempt, please repress to confirm.” This was again unnerving but with some trepidation I confirmed and I was thinking at a minimum there would be an exciting high resolution video (perhaps showing at slow motion ) the arc of the ball as it approached the uprights as part of the “Field Goal Game.”

As soon as a pressed the confirmation, the screen blinked and I was faced with only a plain text message” “CONGRATULATIONS [YOU IDIOT]- YOU HAVE WON [ONLY] $10 IN FREE PLAY.” (Editorial comment added). What a fun game. I was pissed as I pulled out the $10 free play voucher spit out by the machine.

Well that day (Saturday) I played mostly triple play 9/6 JOB and 8/5 Bonus Poker at the $1 level and accumulated 2,500 reward credits (which as matched with at 5,000 tier credit bonus). I also played some craps but nothing notable happened.

The following day (Sunday) I was departing late at night and thought I would play some more and accumulate more reward credits. But I had no luck. I hoped to hit something with a few hundred at $5 slots but got nada. I then went back to the full pay video poker but the machines died on me. Eventually by late afternoon, I only had $700 of my free play funds left. As I said earlier, I was NOT going to use my own funds on this trip.

I then decided to play craps. The craps tables at Harrahs and Harveys Lake Tahoe (same company) were largely $10 tables with a few $15 minimum tables. The Fire Bet is available but a maximum of $5. If you want to buy the four or ten you need to pre-pay the vig. Apparently, pre-paying the vig is common for Lake Tahoe.
I bought in for $500 at a $10 table. I started off with a $10 pass line bet with full odds and $30 each on the six and eight, along with a $5 fire bet. I always bet the fire bet if available. But before any hits, the seven came out (ouch). The next four shooters also ate away at my bankroll. By the time the dice were passed to me, I had about $100 dollars left in my rack.

I then placed a $10 pass line bet and rolled a nine. There were seven other craps players (all suffering with me as no one was playing the darkside). The only other fire bet player was the guy to my left who made a $1 fire bet. I put $40 behind the nine as free odds, and placed $12 on the six and eight (along with a $5 fire bet). I was betting less than usual as my bankroll was depleted. My initial roll after the point was a Nine – “Pay the Line.” Nice. I then rolled an eight on the come out. I moved my $12 eight place bet to the nine for $10. I also placed a $25 free odds bet behind the pass line. A couple of rolls later, I hit the eight!

On my third come out, I hit a six. I was now feeling frisky and decided to put full odds on my six of $50. I shifted my $10 nine to a $12 eight. Within the next few rolls was the six -- “pay the line!” I made $70 on that pass line win. This made 3 different fire bets down. But nobody (other than the guy to my immediate left with a $1 free bet) cared as I was the only one with money on that Fire Bet. I also did not hit any hardways so far.

On the next come out, I rolled a ten. I shifted At this point some of the fellow craps players were complaining to me about seldom hitting any numbers other than the point. Talk about whining. At this point I am shooting for the fourth fire bet number as I had already hit the nine, eight and six. I was quite excited and I told the table as much but since only I and one other guy even had a fire bet, I sensed a lot of indifference mixed with regret from the other players for missing the fire bet opportunity. After a couple of rolls I finally hit a six (which I pressed to $24). I then hit an eight (which I pressed as well). After about five more rolls I got an easy four! I am in the Fire Bet money with four hits. That means 25 for 1 (a win of $125 (minus my $5 bet)). More important it gives me a chance at five fire bet numbers. I was excited but once again I sensed a lot of regret flowing around the table for avoiding the fire bet.

I see I only have the four and the five left to hit on the Fire Bet numbers. I was inclined to bet these numbers on the hop on the come out but did not do so. I did bet the hard four for $10 with action on the come out. I then rolled and hit a FIVE! I had never been the shooter when I was actually on a Fire Bet fifth number and asked the dealer what I would get if I hit the five. She told me that you would get 250-1.
I then started some fevered calculation in my head. I had about $350 in chips in front of me. Would it be a good opportunity to lay against the Five? I thought I could pull another Benjamin from my wallet, add it to my chips and maybe lay $450 to win $300 against the five. That way if I hit the five bet, I would make a Fire Bet profit of $1,250 (minus $450 , minus the $5 original bet) for a net of $795. But if I hit the seven before the five that would mean I get $125 fire bet plus $300 for a net of $425. These calculations ignored my passline bet with odds since my head was already being overheated.

You remember in the old movies and tv shows where you have a character with a devil on one shoulder and an angel on the other conducting a debate? Well it wasn’t like sin was involved but I was confused and had to choose whether to hedge with a significant lay bet or go for a naked Fire Bet. Ultimately, I decided not to hedge as I thought it was like an admission that I could not hit the five. I further decided that if it came to a sixth Fire Bet number, I would reconsider that decision as then I would be facing a $5,000 opportunity.

Unfortunately, the next number I rolled was a SEVEN and only received $125 based on the four fire bet numbers hit.

All day yesterday I kept thinking I should have laid against the five and pocketed the extra $300 as a hedge as it would have insured a win on my session. What would you guys have done when facing a fifth fire bet point? Has anyone ever laid against the Fire bet?

Also, has anyone faced a choice on the “Field Goal Game” or equivalent Harrah’s promotion?

Regards, FAB

[Alan Mendelson]

Let me discuss laying the point as a hedge for the fire bet: simply don't. There is a big house edge on laying any number and there is a big house edge on hitting the fire bet, so in essence you are making two losing bets. And on the "karmic side" -- why bet against yourself?

I was at a table at Caesars where a player with $10 on the fire hedged the fourth point (it was hit) and the fifth point (it was hit) and gave back a big chunk of the $2500 he won on the five points hitting. He did not hedge the sixth point, which was established but did not hit.

[timspeed]

On another note..that's some SERIOUS Bounce-Back from HLT...
Wife got $400 ReelRewards + $300 Resort Credit for Valentine's Day Weekend...and we've never put 1c worth of play there (although we HAVE stayed a weekend there a few months back; complimentary via Diamond Rate Calendar.)
Makes me wonder just HOW much they'd give (I know Rincon was nice and gave $3000 FSP for hitting DIAD on vP)

[FABismonte]

Hi Tim:

I do like Harrah's Lake Tahoe bounce back offers. They have a nice spa so the resort credit may be attractive to your wife. Their weekend promos often allow you to use express coupons on the same weekend (although the coupon does say not valid with any other offer). The Winter Promotion they give is an annual offer good from mid November to mid January (excluding holiday periods) also allowing overlapping use of free play. No other type promotion at HLT is as generous. Last year the Winter Promotion to me was $2,500 free play.

While the mathematician in me understands Alan's position in hedging, if ever I get working on the sixth Fire Bet number I believe I will hedge with a lay bet.

FAB

[Alan Mendelson]

(I know Rincon was nice and gave $3000 FSP for hitting DIAD on vP)

I'd really appreciate some clarification on this: was the free slot play for one day or spread out over a month?

[Dan Druff]

Thanks for the detailed report.

I should point out that the "get between XXX and YYY" promotions at CET properties are a disaster. You almost always get XXX (or very near XXX) and almost never YYY or close to it.

[dannyj]

I enjoy gambling stories so I decided to share my story as well as provide my tale to create the context for a couple of question to see if members of this Forum would have done something differently under the circumstances.

Last weekend I was at Harrah’s Lake Tahoe. I was provided a total of three types of free play. One, a Winter Promo of $1,100 in free play. Two, an Express Free Play coupon of $375 in free play. Three, a mailed opportunity combined with my hotel stay to get ONE of the following: (1) $225 in food credit; (2) 17500 in reward credits; (3) 7X Reward Credits earned on Slot play by me over the weekend (3X for video poker credits); or (4) Up to $700 free play for Harrah’s “Field Goal Game.” Given the relatively large free play options given me, I committed to myself only to play and risk the free play this weekend. BTW, I was alone this weekend and I also had a $100 food credit coupon to use this trip so I was not interested in food credits as an option.

Played at 9/6 JOB triple play the $1,100 in free play and the $375 in Express Play coupons and got out $1,100 after a long session. I then decided to try the “Field Goal Game.” To redeem the mailed opportunity I was allowed ONE time to swipe my Total Rewards card at a promotional kiosk and choose one of the four choices listed above. I went to the kiosk located near the casino cage and was given the four choices. Notably however the “up to $700 Field Goal Game” option in the mail now was presented on the kiosk screen as “Win between $10 to $700.” The mailer I received did not describe the $10 floor in free play I could receive. In my mind, faced with the other four options, I thought that maybe $200 was a realistic minimum. Besides, I had never played the “Field Goal Game” before and thought it may be fun. So I pressed the option of the “Field Goal Game.” Oddly, I was prompted to “You have chosen the Field Goal Game Option, press again that option to confirm.” Now I was getting nervous about my choice. Was that some kind of warning?. It reminded me of the video poker situation where you are dealt 4 Aces and you mistakenly hold only three. If you call a slot attendant and convince her that the button are sticky and they play back the hand from manipulating the computer memory, sometimes they will pay you for the 4 Aces. Was this “reconfirmation” Harrah’s Lake Tahoe’s way of saying – “YOU WERE WARNED AND YOU STILL STUCK WITH THE WRONG CHOICE SO -- SUCKS TO BE YOU!”

Ignoring my inner voice, I pressed “Confirm” and played the “Field Goal Game.” I was then presented with three choices: (1) Attempt a Field Goal at 20 yards; (2) Attempt a Field Goal at 40 yards; or (3) Attempt a Field Goal at 60 yards. I figured that 60 yards was too long a risk and 20 yards would probably only win me a little so I went for what I thought was a medium risk. So I pressed attempt at 40 yard. I was again prompted “you have chosen a 40 yard attempt, please repress to confirm.” This was again unnerving but with some trepidation I confirmed and I was thinking at a minimum there would be an exciting high resolution video (perhaps showing at slow motion ) the arc of the ball as it approached the uprights as part of the “Field Goal Game.”

As soon as a pressed the confirmation, the screen blinked and I was faced with only a plain text message” “CONGRATULATIONS [YOU IDIOT]- YOU HAVE WON [ONLY] $10 IN FREE PLAY.” (Editorial comment added). What a fun game. I was pissed as I pulled out the $10 free play voucher spit out by the machine.

Well that day (Saturday) I played mostly triple play 9/6 JOB and 8/5 Bonus Poker at the $1 level and accumulated 2,500 reward credits (which as matched with at 5,000 tier credit bonus). I also played some craps but nothing notable happened.

The following day (Sunday) I was departing late at night and thought I would play some more and accumulate more reward credits. But I had no luck. I hoped to hit something with a few hundred at $5 slots but got nada. I then went back to the full pay video poker but the machines died on me. Eventually by late afternoon, I only had $700 of my free play funds left. As I said earlier, I was NOT going to use my own funds on this trip.

I then decided to play craps. The craps tables at Harrahs and Harveys Lake Tahoe (same company) were largely $10 tables with a few $15 minimum tables. The Fire Bet is available but a maximum of $5. If you want to buy the four or ten you need to pre-pay the vig. Apparently, pre-paying the vig is common for Lake Tahoe.
I bought in for $500 at a $10 table. I started off with a $10 pass line bet with full odds and $30 each on the six and eight, along with a $5 fire bet. I always bet the fire bet if available. But before any hits, the seven came out (ouch). The next four shooters also ate away at my bankroll. By the time the dice were passed to me, I had about $100 dollars left in my rack.

I then placed a $10 pass line bet and rolled a nine. There were seven other craps players (all suffering with me as no one was playing the darkside). The only other fire bet player was the guy to my left who made a $1 fire bet. I put $40 behind the nine as free odds, and placed $12 on the six and eight (along with a $5 fire bet). I was betting less than usual as my bankroll was depleted. My initial roll after the point was a Nine – “Pay the Line.” Nice. I then rolled an eight on the come out. I moved my $12 eight place bet to the nine for $10. I also placed a $25 free odds bet behind the pass line. A couple of rolls later, I hit the eight!

On my third come out, I hit a six. I was now feeling frisky and decided to put full odds on my six of $50. I shifted my $10 nine to a $12 eight. Within the next few rolls was the six -- “pay the line!” I made $70 on that pass line win. This made 3 different fire bets down. But nobody (other than the guy to my immediate left with a $1 free bet) cared as I was the only one with money on that Fire Bet. I also did not hit any hardways so far.

On the next come out, I rolled a ten. I shifted At this point some of the fellow craps players were complaining to me about seldom hitting any numbers other than the point. Talk about whining. At this point I am shooting for the fourth fire bet number as I had already hit the nine, eight and six. I was quite excited and I told the table as much but since only I and one other guy even had a fire bet, I sensed a lot of indifference mixed with regret from the other players for missing the fire bet opportunity. After a couple of rolls I finally hit a six (which I pressed to $24). I then hit an eight (which I pressed as well). After about five more rolls I got an easy four! I am in the Fire Bet money with four hits. That means 25 for 1 (a win of $125 (minus my $5 bet)). More important it gives me a chance at five fire bet numbers. I was excited but once again I sensed a lot of regret flowing around the table for avoiding the fire bet.

I see I only have the four and the five left to hit on the Fire Bet numbers. I was inclined to bet these numbers on the hop on the come out but did not do so. I did bet the hard four for $10 with action on the come out. I then rolled and hit a FIVE! I had never been the shooter when I was actually on a Fire Bet fifth number and asked the dealer what I would get if I hit the five. She told me that you would get 250-1.
I then started some fevered calculation in my head. I had about $350 in chips in front of me. Would it be a good opportunity to lay against the Five? I thought I could pull another Benjamin from my wallet, add it to my chips and maybe lay $450 to win $300 against the five. That way if I hit the five bet, I would make a Fire Bet profit of $1,250 (minus $450 , minus the $5 original bet) for a net of $795. But if I hit the seven before the five that would mean I get $125 fire bet plus $300 for a net of $425. These calculations ignored my passline bet with odds since my head was already being overheated.

You remember in the old movies and tv shows where you have a character with a devil on one shoulder and an angel on the other conducting a debate? Well it wasn’t like sin was involved but I was confused and had to choose whether to hedge with a significant lay bet or go for a naked Fire Bet. Ultimately, I decided not to hedge as I thought it was like an admission that I could not hit the five. I further decided that if it came to a sixth Fire Bet number, I would reconsider that decision as then I would be facing a $5,000 opportunity.

Unfortunately, the next number I rolled was a SEVEN and only received $125 based on the four fire bet numbers hit.

All day yesterday I kept thinking I should have laid against the five and pocketed the extra $300 as a hedge as it would have insured a win on my session. What would you guys have done when facing a fifth fire bet point? Has anyone ever laid against the Fire bet?

Also, has anyone faced a choice on the “Field Goal Game” or equivalent Harrah’s promotion?

Regards, FAB

Fab,

Being a hedge bettor I advocate making a "small" hedge in these instances. I am always on the fire bet but usually for just a buck, rarely $5. I only start the hedge at the 5th point. Similar instance happened the other night, shooter established the 9 as his fifth fire bet number. Having a dollar on the fire I quietly told the dealer to lay $30 on the 9. He made the nine and I was happy he did for a net win of $220. In the event the sixth point is established my lay bet goes up to $300. The house edge for laying point numbers 4,5,9,10 "decreases" vs. placing those numbers, and the house edge "increases" on a layed 6 or 8 vs. placing. To date, I have not had to hedge against the 6 or 8 as the fifth or sixth fire bet numbers, as those numbers are usually made earlier. Thinking about it though, I would bypass the hedge on the fifth fire bet number if it was a point of 6 or 8 and resume hedge on the sixth fire bet number. As far as the "karmic side", I don't have a problem with it, money is money and we are all mercenaries on the table. Besides, I'm not rooting against the fire bet, I'm just taking advantage of an earned situation where I can increase the consolation prize at the expense of the grand prize.

[RoeIncarnate]

Fab,

. Besides, I'm not rooting against the fire bet, I'm just taking advantage of an earned situation where I can increase the consolation prize at the expense of the grand prize.

Recently listened to on of the previous "You can bet on that" podcast (around #40 or so) where they talked about this fire bet hedge. They suggested maybe making it on the sixth point. But you have weight the amount you loose from the grand prize if it hits.

With a 1000 to 1 payout to loose, maybe the hedge makes sense. But to me, not on the 250 to 1.

I've never been at a table with 5 points made, so have never had to consider the 6 the point hedge.

Enjoyed the report. Thanx.

[regnis]

I am not one to hedge my bets. However, today I talked myself into hedging my bet. Whether it was right or wrong I'm still not sure, but today it cost me money.
I had the first 4 winners in on a Pick 5 bet. I was live with 3 horses in the 5th race with my potential payoffs being $10,400 on #1, $10,800 on number 8, and $$18,000 on the third horse. There were 5 other horses, mostly long shots, in the race. I actually didn't have a strong opinion on the race and wasn't particularly fond of the 3 horses I had.

I wound up putting $80 to win on each of those 5 horses. One of my original 3 won so the hedge wasted $400. Happy for the 10G win, but I did waste 400.

Was it correct move?? I don't know.