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Thread: Interesting fact: Theoretical loss at Harrah's New Orleans VP computed at 0.95%

  1. #41
    Originally Posted by Dan Druff View Post
    Okay, so I just called Rincon and talked to a nice slot manager. Wasn't easy getting a hold of her, but once I did, she went and looked it all up for me.

    .....<snip>....

    Since Double Super Times Pay has standard 8-5 BP (99.17%), the multiplier of 1.00509 makes it into a 99.67% game. Every other game sucks. Bonus Poker on Double Super Times Pay is literally the only playable one.

    And they are giving 1 tier per $10 wagered.

    I think I will give it a try and cancel my Tahoe trip.
    Dan: It's not as if your effort to get to the bottom of things and to discover the actual paytables go unappreciated here, but do you think it was a good idea to talk directly to a slot manager about this?

    Personally, I would be concerned such inquiries could potentially lead to a renewed focus by key CET employees on the good paytables as candidates for future reduction.

  2. #42
    Todd, it's been on the Rincon VPFree2 page for years! Not really a secret these two machines exist. Clearly you merely skimmed the page. Look closely under the 99.17% BP section.

    http://www.vpfree2.com/casino/harrahs-rincon

    I'm going to suggest that you talk about this mega-fail string of posts #29, 30, 32, 34, 36, and 38 on Druff & Friends.
    Last edited by nerakil; 03-05-2015 at 07:59 AM.

  3. #43
    Originally Posted by Dan Druff View Post
    Since Double Super Times Pay has standard 8-5 BP (99.17%), the multiplier of 1.00509 makes it into a 99.67% game. Every other game sucks. Bonus Poker on Double Super Times Pay is literally the only playable one.

    I think I will give it a try and cancel my Tahoe trip.
    Cricky, and this is after a 3 page long discussion about you not getting 5 nights comped upfront and how the host "goofed". A three page discussion, a lenghtly telephone discussion with a host and a phone call with the marketing department.

    Et voila, a couple of days later you're going to cancel the reservation to go to Rincon. That's a lot of invested time for a stay at a CET property that doesn't happen after all. Could it be that because of actions like this one, hosts might find you too "high maintenance" and don't really want to invest much time and effort into a player like you? Not passing judgement here but kinda wondering if this could be one of the reasons why you run into trouble more often than others? I have no idea what properties register in their central CRM-systems but maybe they know more about you than you think?

  4. #44
    Dan I don't know if this will impact your plans for Rincon:

    I was told by a player that you are not given tier points or reward credits for the premium charged. For example on the machine you want to play there are no points for the extra two coins. On the Dreamcard game there are no points for the extra five coins.

    I never confirmed this. The player discovered this by tracking the meter.

  5. #45
    Originally Posted by Alan Mendelson View Post
    Dan I don't know if this will impact your plans for Rincon:

    I was told by a player that you are not given tier points or reward credits for the premium charged. For example on the machine you want to play there are no points for the extra two coins. On the Dreamcard game there are no points for the extra five coins.

    I never confirmed this. The player discovered this by tracking the meter.
    Actually I was concerned about this, too.

    Sucks, but I'll still play it.

    This will result in the same expected loss per 1000 base tier credits earned ($46) as regular 9/6 JoB.
    Check out my poker forum, and weekly internet radio show at http://pokerfraudalert.com

  6. #46
    Originally Posted by Dan Druff View Post
    This will result in the same expected loss per 1000 base tier credits earned ($46) as regular 9/6 JoB.
    I am curious: if you were to compare the out of pocket cost for playing this Double Super Times Pay machine with the out of pocket costs of playing 8/5 Aces and Faces, which of the two gives you a lower out of pocket cost for reaching 7 Stars? I am asking about the out of pocket cost because of the extra coins required for Double Super Times Pay -- and not the theoretical return.

  7. #47
    Originally Posted by Alan Mendelson View Post
    I am curious: if you were to compare the out of pocket cost for playing this Double Super Times Pay machine with the out of pocket costs of playing 8/5 Aces and Faces, which of the two gives you a lower out of pocket cost for reaching 7 Stars? I am asking about the out of pocket cost because of the extra coins required for Double Super Times Pay -- and not the theoretical return.
    Somehow this thread was closed. I just opened it back up.

    Anyway, I did compare this.

    Earning 1000 tier credits on this Double Super Times Pay machine would require $14,000 coin in. It is a 99.67% return game. So $14,000 * (1 - 0.9967) = $46.20

    Earning 1000 tier credits on Aces and Faces would require $10,000 coin in. It is a 99.26% return game. So $10,000 * (1 - 0.9926) = $74.00

    Earning 1000 tier credits on 9/6 JoB would require $10,000 coin in. It is a 99.54% return game. So $10,000 * (1 - 0.9954) = $46.00

    As you can see, your expected return is still much better on Double Super Times Pay than Aces and Faces when earning 1,000 tiers. However, the variance on Double Super Times Pay is higher. The variance is lowest on 9/6 JoB, so that's actually still the best to play if you are playing a set amount in order to earn tiers.
    Check out my poker forum, and weekly internet radio show at http://pokerfraudalert.com

  8. #48
    Also curious about this: what is the expected return of a royal on this double super times pay machine? What is the return without a royal?

  9. #49
    Originally Posted by Alan Mendelson View Post
    Also curious about this: what is the expected return of a royal on this double super times pay machine? What is the return without a royal?
    That's a little harder to calculate.

    This is because of the multiplier.

    Dealt royal has a 1-in-15 chance of getting a multiplier, but if it hits, then you get 20x. This boosts the return of a dealt royal by 127% on average, but the problem is that dealt royals are so rare (1 in 640,000 hands).

    Non-dealt royal has a 1-in-15 chance for an average multiplier of 4.01, but you get TWO chances at it. So you only get a 46.8% boost on average.

    Anyway, all in all, the royal is very close to 2% of the payouts on average.

    So that means if you play and hit no royal, you will be getting approximately a 97.67% return on average.
    Check out my poker forum, and weekly internet radio show at http://pokerfraudalert.com

  10. #50
    A buddy of mine was at Rincon tonight and looked at the Double Super Times Pay machines.

    He reported to me the following:

    1) You DO get tier credits and RCs for the two extra coins bet per hand. That's good news.

    2) There is no 10-play at the 50c level for Double Super Times Pay. I was apparently given erroneous info. 3/5/10 play exists at Double Super Times Pay for 5c/10c/25c, but not 50c. 50c is only 3 and 5 play. This means that it will take me twice as long to earn 5000 tiers in a day, as now I can only run $17.50 coin-in per hand.

    3) There are actually four Double Super Times Pay machines, not two. One is 5c/10c/25c/50c, and one is 25c/50c. Apparently the bonus poker paytable goes down once you get below 25c.
    Check out my poker forum, and weekly internet radio show at http://pokerfraudalert.com

  11. #51
    I just got an email offer for two front row tickets at Rincon to watch Dan get his 7stars.
    It includes free popcorn and soda from the diamond lounge.

  12. #52
    Originally Posted by Chimp View Post
    I just got an email offer for two front row tickets at Rincon to watch Dan get his 7stars.
    It includes free popcorn and soda from the diamond lounge.
    But they are only comping 3 days on that offer. You will have to put in the necessary play and hope they comp the extra 2 days so that you can see it through.

  13. #53
    Since Dan only plays three months every two years, you don't want to miss it.

  14. #54
    Originally Posted by FABismonte View Post
    Since Dan only plays three months every two years, you don't want to miss it.
    If you ask me, Rincon should turn this into a pay per view special for hotel guests, with big screens set up in the convention center and on the casino floor.

  15. #55
    Chimp, regnis, and Alan:

    I know you're all kidding around with Dan, but in his defense having 2 years' worth of play compacted into a short 3-month timeframe may have an ancillary bonus all its own: A short burst of good freeplay & comp mailers.

    If he was to gain all his 7-star tier points spread out over a two-year period, any freeplay would be in much smaller bits...doled out in little dribs and drabs over a long period of time instead of potentially good offers spread over fewer trips.

  16. #56
    Originally Posted by Count Room View Post
    having 2 years' worth of play compacted into a short 3-month timeframe may have an ancillary bonus all its own: A short burst of good freeplay & comp mailers.
    An interesting idea but I'm not sure that will happen. My understanding is that Rincon and Caesars use a six month average, and it might even be a "rolling average" which puts it into perspective with the rest of the year.

    If on the other hand it does provide a bonus in offers then great for him.

    You do raise a good point of discussion which we have touched on before: is it better to have fewer big sessions (visits) or more smaller sessions or visits? I have seen players who go to Caesars just a few times during the year but bet a lot in those few visits get bigger offers than I do, even though I might have a higher tier score.

    I think I mentioned how, about a year or so ago, I used to get offers in the range of $1500 to $2500 (that was a year ago, not now) while others with fewer tier points were getting offers of $5,000. I think they were getting the bigger offers because their play on fewer sessions was much more money than my per-visit play.

    Dan should report on this.

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