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Thread: Interesting fact: Theoretical loss at Harrah's New Orleans VP computed at 0.95%

  1. #1
    I got information on my theoretical loss at Harrah's New Orleans. I don't know if this applies to VP played elsewhere within CET.

    I ran $125,000 of coin-in at Harrah's New Orleans at 10-6 Deuces Wild, which is a 99.73% return game, meaning I was playing at a 0.27% disadvantage.

    So 0.27% * $125,000 = $337.50

    So that should have been my theoretical loss.

    Instead, they calculated my theoretical at $1185 (which is good for me, obviously).

    That's about 0.95%.

    There is no 99.05% VP game there, so I'm not sure where they got that number. Maybe it's a weird average of the available VP games on that multi-play machine.

    It is also possible they raise your theoretical loss on Deuces Wild because it's a tough game to play perfectly unless you know exactly all the right plays (and they're not intuitive, unlike JoB).

    Anyone else know what % loss was calculated for VP as theoretical at the casinos you've visited?
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  2. #2
    Just curious: what was your actual result, whether it was a win or loss. I think that's more important than anything "theoretical."

  3. #3
    Theoretical is important mainly because that's how CET determines your value to them as a player.

    I found out my theo from the last trip from that Tahoe host I was arguing with, because I was bragging about how much I played on my last New Orleans trip, and he responded by telling me that I "only" generated $1185 theo, which only broke out to about $400 per day.

    I actually lost around $1800, which is just about the expected loss (slightly better) if you don't hit a natural royal in that game (which I didn't).
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  4. #4
    On a side note, I was assigned a host at Harrah's New Orleans, and he followed up the next week with a phone call to me. I also have a few air offers he sent me (none for any dates I feel like going) if I want to go back there -- basically airfare for 2 people round trip.

    So I guess I played enough to show up as a customer they want to have. It is true that both of the times I stayed at Harrah's NO, I played a fair amount there.
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  5. #5
    It could be simply that the theo is calculated from the game's own coin-in/coin-out for that game. In other words the players' average actual performance overall at the DW game is running at 99.05% since most people are playing it less than optimally.

    I do know for sure that lower paytable VP tends to give better offers, yet even so the theo could be may not be calculated on a strict paytable return. Rather it could still be a newly-lowered player average return based on 'sloppy' play at the lower paytable, as well.

  6. #6
    Dan, I'm a bit confused now about theoreticals. You wrote that the casino figured your theoretical at $1185 but you actually lost $1800. Wouldn't it be better if the casino looked at your actual loss than your theoretical loss?

    I should add: I don't mind if a casino looks at my play on a negative expectation game and figures my theoretical loss when I in fact won money. And that has actually happened.

  7. #7
    Alan, you wrote this to Dan. but I also wanted to respond:

    Originally Posted by Alan Mendelson View Post
    Dan, I'm a bit confused now about theoreticals. You wrote that the casino figured your theoretical at $1185 but you actually lost $1800. Wouldn't it be better if the casino looked at your actual loss than your theoretical loss?

    I should add: I don't mind if a casino looks at my play on a negative expectation game and figures my theoretical loss when I in fact won money. And that has actually happened.
    Some casinos do indeed look at your actual losses vs. theoretical to determine your offers and comps.


    I've had royals and other jackpots in these places and my offers sometimes plummet to as low as $5(!) freeplay (and sometimes no mailers at all!!!) when they reflect a month where I won big. This can take place even on months when I give $60-$100K or more coin-in for the month, it still doesn't matter.

    I hate places with that sort of outlook anymore. More casinos used the theoretical loss approach in the past. The ranks are thinning in that respect.

  8. #8
    I play on the only mismarked VP machine (that I know of) in an East Coast CET casino. It's a multi-denom, multi-game machine by IGT, that has a theo of 2.0%. All the games are typical crap paytables (8/5 JoB, 7/5 BP, etc.) except for one game.

    The game I play returns 99.8%, not including mailers/promotions, but my host thinks I am $1K in the hole (theo-wise) every time I run 5,000 tier through the machine.

    ---

    Re: Todd's trip to Lake Tahoe- yes, you can bang away at their 9/6 JoB machines all day long (or even other games: e.g. full-pay 99.62% Extra Draw Frenzy), earning your daily tier bonuses. They *will* no-mail you, though, if that matters to you.
    Last edited by nerakil; 03-03-2015 at 07:40 AM.

  9. #9
    Originally Posted by Count Room View Post
    It could be simply that the theo is calculated from the game's own coin-in/coin-out for that game. In other words the players' average actual performance overall at the DW game is running at 99.05% since most people are playing it less than optimally.

    I do know for sure that lower paytable VP tends to give better offers, yet even so the theo could be may not be calculated on a strict paytable return. Rather it could still be a newly-lowered player average return based on 'sloppy' play at the lower paytable, as well.
    Once again--shouldn't the player know the theoretical so that he/she can determine the amount of play that is needed for the comps that player wants. It was always thought that slots/VP allowed one to calculate this, while table games, particularly craps, you were at the mercy of the casino. But apparently slots/VP is no more defined.

  10. #10
    A host once told me that the Harrah's looks at both the theo and the actual amount lost (or played). This was several years ago in Vegas and things may have changed since then.

  11. #11
    Originally Posted by nerakil View Post
    I play on the only mismarked VP machine (that I know of) in an East Coast CET casino. It's a multi-denom, multi-game machine by IGT, that has a theo of 2.0%. All the games are typical crap paytables (8/5 JoB, 7/5 BP, etc.) except for one game.

    The game I play returns 99.8%, not including mailers/promotions, but my host thinks I am $1K in the hole (theo-wise) every time I run 5,000 tier through the machine.

    ---

    Re: Todd's trip to Lake Tahoe- yes, you can bang away at their 9/6 JoB machines all day long (or even other games: e.g. full-pay 99.62% Extra Draw Frenzy), earning your daily tier bonuses. They *will* no-mail you, though, if that matters to you.
    So you're saying that in Tahoe they don't really want 9-6 JoB players, and won't give offers to those who only play full pay games?

    I've never seen that at any CET properties, though I have no experience with Tahoe in recent years. Can you explain further?
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  12. #12
    Yes, that's what I'm saying, Todd. They will no-mail you for the Reno-Tahoe market.

    Recall that you helped me book my Diamond Aspirations trip about 15 months ago. During that trip, I played some good VP (8/5 BP) but mostly bad VP and table games.

    Immediately I began receiving $400 monthly slot/table game vouchers and one October 2014 offer that promised $300 + $300 for every 5,000 tier earned. I thought this would be a good way to earn 75,000 tier credits in 5 days basically for free, keep up my mailers, and take a nice vacation.

    I accepted this offer and played 9/6 JoB exclusively. For $0.25 50-play, you only have to play for about two hours each day to earn the 5,000 tier credits. The rest of the day I went sightseeing. I won for the trip (~$2K), picked up my 22 $100 free play coupons, converted those to cash, and flew home.

    In November 2014, my Lake Tahoe mailers disappeared. Not reduced, but gone. Room rates were suddenly back to rack rates (irrelevant for Seven Stars, but still). I also used to get offers from Harrah's Reno (which I've never even been to) for $200-300 in casino play. Those disappeared as well.
    Last edited by nerakil; 03-03-2015 at 12:29 PM.

  13. #13
    Originally Posted by regnis View Post
    Once again--shouldn't the player know the theoretical so that he/she can determine the amount of play that is needed for the comps
    First rule of play: never play for comps.

  14. #14
    Originally Posted by nerakil View Post
    Yes, that's what I'm saying, Todd. They will no-mail you for the Reno-Tahoe market.

    Recall that you helped me book my Diamond Aspirations trip about 15 months ago. During that trip, I played some good VP (8/5 BP) but mostly bad VP and table games.

    Immediately I began receiving $400 monthly slot/table game vouchers and one October 2014 offer that promised $300 + $300 for every 5,000 tier earned. I thought this would be a good way to earn 75,000 tier credits in 5 days basically for free, keep up my mailers, and take a nice vacation.

    I accepted this offer and played 9/6 JoB exclusively. For $0.25 50-play, you only have to play for about two hours each day to earn the 5,000 tier credits. The rest of the day I went sightseeing. I won for the trip (~$2K), picked up my 22 $100 free play coupons, converted those to cash, and flew home.

    In November 2014, my Lake Tahoe mailers disappeared. Not reduced, but gone. Room rates were suddenly back to rack rates (irrelevant for Seven Stars, but still). I also used to get offers from Harrah's Reno (which I've never even been to) for $200-300 in casino play. Those disappeared as well.
    Wow, interesting.

    I'll be curious to see what happens to me. Right now I only have offers from Rincon, though I'm likely to see New Orleans generating some soon, as they did last time I played 9-6 JoB (not great ones, though).

    I think it's possible you got no-mailed for the combo of playing full pay VP, winning, and taking advantage of a lucrative promotion.

    There is another measurement called AMT (instead of ADT), which stands for Average Marketing Theoretical. That takes into account the costs you incurred for them, such as usage of hotel rooms, comps, and freeplay. It looks like your AMT was really bad for that trip (as you played a low-theoretical machine and earned a ton of bonus money), so the computer probably decided it didn't like you anymore and no-mailed you.

    That's just my guess.

    What I'm doing now will be a good experiment -- essentially a long-overcomped player showing up without an offer, staying in the hotel, and playing full pay VP heavily. I'll report back what happens regarding offers, after a few months pass.
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  15. #15
    Originally Posted by Alan Mendelson View Post
    First rule of play: never play for comps.
    Agree--should have said the player should know the theoretical just so he knows what is needed for whatever purpose--whether to accumulate points towards 7 stars, or just so he knows what comps he will have earned on his play. Shouldn't be in the dark--whatever the goal or purpose.

  16. #16
    Originally Posted by nerakil View Post
    Recall that you helped me book my Diamond Aspirations trip about 15 months ago. During that trip, I played some good VP (8/5 BP) but mostly bad VP and table games.

    Immediately I began receiving $400 monthly slot/table game vouchers and one October 2014 offer that promised $300 + $300 for every 5,000 tier earned. I thought this would be a good way to earn 75,000 tier credits in 5 days basically for free, keep up my mailers, and take a nice vacation.
    That's good to know...we got the $400 + $300 Resort Credit....if we continue to give them play on the "less than 99%" machines, if they continue to give that, we'd be happy!

  17. #17
    Frankly, I don't even think you should play for a tier level. While we have all discussed the benefits of 7 Stars we really have to consider the out of pocket cost. Even if you lost only $8,000 to reach 7 Stars in a year, wouldn't you be better off with the $8,000 (or pick your "cost") in your pocket and paying for what you get at the hotels?

  18. #18
    Originally Posted by Alan Mendelson View Post
    Frankly, I don't even think you should play for a tier level. While we have all discussed the benefits of 7 Stars we really have to consider the out of pocket cost. Even if you lost only $8,000 to reach 7 Stars in a year, wouldn't you be better off with the $8,000 (or pick your "cost") in your pocket and paying for what you get at the hotels?
    Alan,

    Your comment got me thinking.

    With the one day bonuses, you could put in 50,000 in coin in (5,000 Tier Credits) for ten days and get to Seven Stars. This means if you play 9-6 JOB (99.54%), you have an expected loss of $2,300. With play on 8-5 Bonus Poker (99.17%) you have an expected loss of $4,150.

    The thing about Seven Stars is it is largely a binary situation. Either you make the 150,000 Tier Credits and Seven Stars or you do not (although there is intermediate Diamond Aspirations).

    So if you weighed a $2,300 (or maybe $4,150) expected loss against Seven Stars benefits I see: (1) $1,200 flight; (2) $500 folio credit on a retreat (good for $400 free play in New Orleans); 3) Appreciation gift worth about $200; (4) Free limo; (5) In-room movies and internet; (6) 2 person Free Qua Spa access at Ceasars Palace; (7) $500 Annual Celebration Dinner; (8) Rooms anywhere CET has a hotel; (9) 2 Las Vegas Diamond show tickets with free upgrades to VIP seats per month; (10) Heavily discounted NCL cruises worth about $1,200 discount on the last cruise I took as well as (11) $750 in Diamond Aspirations (80,000 tier credit) flight of $750. Not to mention the intangibles of enhanced line cutting as Seven Stars and assorted free play collected on the way.

    So if one stops at low level Seven Stars as a target and you are going to play substantially anyway, it may be worth the extra play to get there.

    FAB
    Last edited by FABismonte; 03-03-2015 at 04:04 PM.

  19. #19
    FAB unfortunately your numbers are pretty much out of date. In Nevada and even at Rincon 9/6 Jacks getting 1 point for $10 coin in no longer exists. 8/5 Bonus with 1 point for $10 is very hard to find except at Rincon.

    And the big catch is that 7 Stars benefits for the most part involve more casino visits -- it's not like you get a check in the mail.

    Last year I got lucky and hit a royal and 7 Stars with a profit. This year with about 80000 points I am deep in the red and need a $5 Royal to get back to even.

  20. #20
    Combining some of the items from several of these threads, it seems that the rewards from attaining Seven Stars are not what the Seven Star people are expecting, and instead create a lot of ill will. There is also an obvious cost--the theoretical loss for the required play.

    Has anyone calculated the comparative cost/benefit of eking out the lowest level Diamond (which is pretty easy). You still get free rooms. You still can comp your meals/shows on your reward credits, and when used up, you can still ask your host for additional discretionary comps. Since you find the 7 star stuff to be unattractive and/or hard to use, I just wonder if you really benefit from 7 star.

    I have done this for several years now since I stopped being a "Player" and I still get offers and rooms and meals and shows etc any time I want. I don't however get the good seats to shows and first priority to special events and little extras that really don't mean anything to me.

    Just wonder if it's worth the time, cost, and aggravation, even if you have to spend a few bucks for some things that were previously free.

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