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Thread: Setting Win Limitations

  1. #21
    Originally Posted by Alan Mendelson View Post
    Here's what I know and what a lot of other gamblers know:

    It's gambling. The edge may be on my side, the odds may be on my side, the chance of winning may be on my side, but when the money is in my pocket it's my money.

    And if I have a nice win and I've won enough money to bring a nice smile to my face (a win goal) I'm going to take my money home and enjoy it -- or save it for my next casino outing.

    Why is that such a foreign concept to you?
    It is not. I'm not sure to what this is in reference.

    If we have reverted to talking about win goals, the reason I find the decision peculiar is that if you set a "win goal" and reach it you should never play again...ever. You set a goal, you reach that goal, you are done.

    I see no (logical) reason why you should get to wipe the slate clean, reset the clock and disavow your decision from the previous day.

    I'm in full support of leaving due to fatigue, hunger, time constraints, etc... I cannot for the life of me see why a win (without these other factors present) would signal a time to leave, when you will be returning to the same conditions you left. That's all, it doesn't make sense to me.

    We just debated this on LVA and the conclusion was there was no logical reason to leave as a result of a win. We found many emotional factors that could account for it and I don't think anyone is saying that there is anything wrong with including emotions in your casino decisions.

    ~FK

    P.S. Of course, I would have been fired from the team for including emotions in any casino related decision.
    Last edited by Frank Kneeland; 08-16-2011 at 12:07 PM.

  2. #22
    Frank, I'm talking about a win goal per trip, not a win goal for life. You make it seem that I am talking about a win goal for life, and I'm not. Singer is also talking about a win goal per trip. His rationale for a win goal per trip is that it allows you to get out of the casino and enjoy the rest that Vegas has to offer.

    Well, for most of us casual or "recreational players" that's exactly what we want to do too. We want to win some money, go to the fine restaurants and shows, hang out at the pool, sleep and watch a movie in bed. What a great weekend when you hit your win goal and the casino pays for it all!

    You are looking at this whole thing from the perspective of a professional gambler who earns his living playing.

    And that is the difference.

    A win goal for you might make absolutely no sense because the more you play the more your income increases from your:
    1. positive expectation games
    2. expert strategy
    3. flawless play
    4. comp program
    5. cashback program

    The "rest of us" may not be on positive expectation games, we may not know perfect strategy, we may not play flawlessly, we may not be part of the best comp or cashback programs. So, winning some money and saying "it's mine!" is 100% logical for us.

  3. #23
    Originally Posted by Alan Mendelson View Post
    Well, for most of us casual or "recreational players" that's exactly what we want to do too. We want to win some money, go to the fine restaurants and shows, hang out at the pool, sleep and watch a movie in bed. What a great weekend when you hit your win goal and the casino pays for it all!
    [/B]
    Let's just tackle this one paragraph. You want to have fun and let the casino to pay for it all. Got it!

    The only way that would be possible, is if you were up overall in casinos for your life. Any attempt on your part to mentally compartmentalize your results for a single trip, and discard all previous results is self deception. It's a happy self deception that results in the potential for fun, where in the face of harsh grim reality there would be none. But let's call it what it is. It is not logical and it is not honest.

    The only people who can truthfully claim to be winning in a casino, are people that are ahead for their lifetime of play. For everyone else that claims to be winning, what they really mean is that they are now losing less. In your heart I know you know this to be true. I'm sorry, there is too much self deception in this world already I can't let this one stand. It irks me. You stated that recreational players want to,"win some money", I couldn't agree more. What I take issue with is the method by which they achieve a "win", which involves bad (or no) record keeping, multiple levels of cognitive distortion, selective memory and a regular visit from the magical Tabula Rasa Fairy to wipe the slate clean so they can claim any small upturn in their life-long results to be "winning".

    If I'm wrong, please feel free to make a counter argument. I don't think I'm wrong, but then again people never do. I am always open to new ideas and reevaluating my position.
    Last edited by Frank Kneeland; 08-16-2011 at 01:27 PM.

  4. #24
    On a side note: (related) It is for the very reason that a lot of people engage in self deception (it is the rule not the exception), that I feel Rob's system may have far more widespread acceptability than standard AP which discourages such misconceptions and requires good record keeping and looking at things from a lifetime earn perspective. AP is not fun at all. It is a dull monotonous drudgery, and I would expect it to be unappealing to most sane people...especially those that can make more money doing other jobs.

    I'm guessing that Rob's system is indeed more fun than AP. I'm not entirely happy about why it is more fun. But I have no problem conceding that it is.

    The "truth" of gambling is largely irrelevant if no one wants or is willing to listen. It might interest you to know that the number of VP-AP professionals in Las Vegas, a city of nearly 2 million people, is perhaps as low as 50. Certainly not more than 100.

    If one really wishes to help the masses gamble better, preaching AP seems like a losing uphill battle with mostly angry ungrateful people waiting for you at the top. People really hate a spoil sport and cling to their fantasies like they were blood. What I'm currently in favor of is a better fantasy. Did I lose you?

  5. #25
    Frank, let me ask a couple of questions:

    1. Why do math guys gamble? Even if you find a positive expectation game with appropriate cash back and comps you know there is a risk that you will hit a losing cycle that could still wipe you out? Why not simply deposit your money into a government insured bank account paying interest or government bonds and eliminate all risk?

    2. At what point do you stop playing on a given day? Only when you're too tired, or hungry? Does win/loss have no bearing in your decision to stop playing?

  6. #26
    Alan, now you've heard the exact same information from Frank that I have been telling you for months. Don't you think it's time to accept what has been explained to you several times?

  7. #27
    Originally Posted by Alan Mendelson View Post

    1. Why do math guys gamble? Even if you find a positive expectation game with appropriate cash back and comps you know there is a risk that you will hit a losing cycle that could still wipe you out? Why not simply deposit your money into a government insured bank account paying interest or government bonds and eliminate all risk?
    Because the return is much higher playing VP. It's called risk/reward. One could also invest in the stock market and accept higher risk and the potential for higher returns as well. VP is even better if you find the proper edge.

    Go back and read LVA where I explained to you how much money can be made with a 2% edge. Just imagine how much Frank was making with an even larger edge.

    In addition, I actually enjoy playing VP. I know Frank doesn't so even among APers there are differences.

    Originally Posted by Alan Mendelson View Post
    2. At what point do you stop playing on a given day? Only when you're too tired, or hungry? Does win/loss have no bearing in your decision to stop playing?
    For me it is based on how I feel. Win/loss is not even considered.

  8. #28
    Arc, let me see if I can sum up what I have heard? That if you play a positive expectation game you will beat the casinos? That you can make a profit and a living playing video poker?

    Okay, I can accept that. But at the same time, I've also heard about people winning the lottery and people who have survived lightning strikes.

    And now Im hearing that it is not logical to quit when you're ahead?

    I'm left scratching my head. Thanks, Arc.
    Last edited by Alan Mendelson; 08-16-2011 at 05:35 PM.

  9. #29
    Lots of things don't seem logical at first look. Doesn't mean they aren't. You can't always trust instincts.

  10. #30
    Originally Posted by Alan Mendelson View Post
    Frank, let me ask a couple of questions:

    1. Why do math guys gamble? Even if you find a positive expectation game with appropriate cash back and comps you know there is a risk that you will hit a losing cycle that could still wipe you out? Why not simply deposit your money into a government insured bank account paying interest or government bonds and eliminate all risk?

    2. At what point do you stop playing on a given day? Only when you're too tired, or hungry? Does win/loss have no bearing in your decision to stop playing?
    Answer to 1a: For a full explanation of why I became a pro gambler would require 5000 or more words. It is in my book. As far as a losing cycle wiping me out, it would have to be a very bad and sustained losing streak, and all my partners would have to run bad as well for the same period of time. Nothing is impossible, but this is so unlikely we don't even think about it. We are properly bankrolled and play only things within our comfort level. The risk is minuscule.

    1b: Why don't we just put it in the bank?: Because that would be far less income than we make by wagering it. Far less!

    Answer to 2: We stop playing when we have accomplished what we set out to do.
    Examples:
    A-The progressive gets hit.
    B-The promotion ends
    C-Our relief shows up
    D-The amount of points (coin-in) we set out to earn for mailer is reached
    E-Fatigue (absolutely always a good reason to quite for the day)
    F-A social engagement like a date is pending
    G-And the catch all: Whatever reason that caused us to make the decision to play is no longer valid

    So in answer to whether of not win/loss has a bearing on our decision to play, the answer is no. How on earth could it. It is a random unpredictable factor, and can't be relied upon to decide when you should leave, because the information is not present when you arrive.

    Think of it like this: The logic process to play or not to play is identical. Therefore one can only make this decision logically, with information that is available before, during, and after play. Results, therefore, have to be ignored or they screw up any chance of making an impartial logical decision. Unless you have a really good crystal ball.

  11. #31
    Originally Posted by arcimede$ View Post
    In addition, I actually enjoy playing VP. I know Frank doesn't so even among APers there are differences.
    This brings up an interesting point.

    To my knowledge I am the only professional video poker player that did not choose the profession, because they wanted to. If you know my story, I was dragged kicking and screaming into the biz by my Mom, and would honestly do just about anything else if it paid even half of what I make as a gambler. I believe it is fair to say this gives me unique perspective on the profession, since I have no like of it creating biases in my mind.

    Oh and Alan, don't listen to arcimede$, he likes video poker, which clearly means he is crazy
    Last edited by Frank Kneeland; 08-16-2011 at 05:33 PM.

  12. #32
    Unlike Frank I did not start serious VP play until I retired from my day job (which paid very well and still does in terms of my pension). So, VP for me has always been a part-time activity that just happens to make me some money.

    In my case, if I didn't enjoy it I wouldn't play. And, there are some games I can only play for a short time due to boredom. FPDW being the worst. Even JOB and BP are easier for me to play, especially progressives. That is why I play OEJs. It always keep me on my toes.

    Golf is similar to VP in many respects and I love it also. It's difficult to master and even if you reach a certain level of competence you have to keep at it to maintain that level of play. Of course, lots of people think I'm crazy for chasing a little ball around.

  13. #33
    Frank, thanks for your response, and I think one of the most important things you wrote refers to the fact that you are a professional.

    Here it is: "As far as a losing cycle wiping me out, it would have to be a very bad and sustained losing streak, and all my partners would have to run bad as well for the same period of time."

    This is what separates you from all of the millions of other video poker players and gamblers -- you are a professional. You talked about how fewer than about 50 others in Vegas, a city of 2-million plus how many million more visitors, are advantage players which we could also call "professional."

    Yet, there are millions of others who think that they can also beat the machines following PART of your overall professional plan.

    And I think my point, and perhaps Singer's point also, is that PART of the plan cannot make you a winner.

    And the biggest part of the plan that is missing is the absence of positive expectation machines.

    For these reasons there should be a big, black box warning (that's a term the FDA uses for warnings on medicines) that trying to play like a pro cannot make you win like a pro unless you indeed have all of the elements that a pro has at his disposal including those positive machines, the proper comps and cash back, the proper bankroll, and yes -- even partners to soften the blow when everything else goes wrong.

    In lieu of that what's wrong with telling these "professional wanna be's" to quit while they're ahead?

    Curiously, gambling writer John Grochowski in his online column today wrote about win goals and loss limits. Here is the link:

    http://grochowski.casinocitytimes.co...s-limits-60063

    Pay particular attention to his last paragraph which I think is the key to any discussion about quitting while you're ahead: what kind of a gambler are you? Since most are not armed to enter a casino as a professional, most players should quit when they're ahead.

  14. #34
    Originally Posted by Frank Kneeland View Post
    This brings up an interesting point.

    To my knowledge I am the only professional video poker player that did not choose the profession, because they wanted to. If you know my story, I was dragged kicking and screaming into the biz by my Mom, and would honestly do just about anything else if it paid even half of what I make as a gambler. I believe it is fair to say this gives me unique perspective on the profession, since I have no like of it creating biases in my mind.

    Oh and Alan, don't listen to arcimede$, he likes video poker, which clearly means he is crazy
    Frank, of course you have A BIAS. You are a professional gambler. You are, whether you will admit it or not, are defending your profession. And, it's a profession that pays you well. Would you be equally unbiased if the issue at hand were outlawing video poker?

  15. #35
    Originally Posted by Alan Mendelson View Post
    Frank, of course you have A BIAS. You are a professional gambler. You are, whether you will admit it or not, are defending your profession. And, it's a profession that pays you well. Would you be equally unbiased if the issue at hand were outlawing video poker?
    If the issue at hand was outlawing video poker I would be first in line to vote for the proposal. I don't think you realize just how much I hate the profession, or how much of a scourge to human existence I believe all gambling is. If I have a bias it is against gambling, not for it.

    You have really missed my point entirely. I am not defending professional gambling in any way (holy crap, don't think that).

    I am defending logical thought...And I am condemning self delusion.

    In this context I was using gambling examples. Honestly, one could take the advice I offered and apply it to all walks of life.

    Logic = Good
    Delusion = Bad

    F(*& gambling. It just happened to be a gambling situation where the cause I'm championing came up. That cause is not gambling. (Got it now?)

    And as far a Vegas is concerned, my advice is, "Nuke it from orbit, it's the only way to be sure".
    Last edited by Frank Kneeland; 08-16-2011 at 06:05 PM.

  16. #36
    Then Frank, how could you possibly oppose Singer's advice to quit when you hit a win goal?
    Last edited by Alan Mendelson; 08-16-2011 at 06:12 PM. Reason: fixed typo

  17. #37
    Seriously Alan, how many times do you expect frank to answer that question? You've gotten the answer from Frank and myself probably 20 times now.

  18. #38
    Well, Arc, when will you realize that I don't accept your answer? LOL

  19. #39
    One more thing, Frank, if you are trying to use gambling in Vegas as something to defend logical thought, you're way off base. You wrote:

    "I am defending logical thought...And I am condemning self delusion.

    In this context I was using gambling examples. Honestly, one could take the advice I offered and apply it to all walks of life.

    Logic = Good
    Delusion = Bad"

    Frank: Nothing is more delusional than Vegas casinos.

  20. #40
    I've been following all the discussions with everyone with keen interest, but now I'm not sure that the outcome of all this will be couched in terms that will apply to me as the average VP player. If I am off base, then perhaps Frank will clarify: is the "Frank & Rob" thing being done from the perspective and for the benefit of the professional gambler or regular guys like me? With Frank's background being that of a member of a team which plays progressives, how will this play into all of this since most of us are definitely not a part of a team and progressives are not necessarily a specialty with us.

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