Summer Offers: Value Drops Again

[Alan Mendelson]

Actually Rob, knowing when to fold is the easiest decision to make: just fold every hand. In a cash game you will only lose your blinds if you fold every blind. You won't win any money, but you'll just lose your blinds. I actually know some players who go to a certain casino that serves free food to its players and they will sit at the table, lose their blinds, just to order their food. Then they will "sit out" and eat and then leave. They literally can have a $25 or $35 steak and lobster dinner for the price of $5 which is the $3 and $2 blinds.

But a more practical answer about folding: In Texas Hold'em you are dealt two cards. Let's say your cards are the 7 of diamonds and the 2 of spades. And you have several players ahead of you at the table who bet first. And they are betting big. You would fold if all that big betting went on pre flop because you know 7-2 offsuit are very weak cards.

Another example: You have pocket kings (king of clubs and king of spades) and the pre-flop betting is made and the dealer flops the first three community cards on the table and they are Ace of hearts, Queen of hearts and Queen of diamonds. And before it's your turn to bet two other players are betting big. This is when you have to think that they might have an ace (two aces beats two kings) or they might have a queen (three queens beats two kings) or perhaps the players have two hearts and they are on a flush draw. With two more cards to come (the turn and the river) you might want to fold those kings if the other players are betting big. But if they are not betting big and you wouldn't be losing too much you might want to stay in the hand to see if perhaps another king hits on the turn or the river, or if no more hearts are showing on the table.

In poker you have to do a lot of thinking. It's not just the cards you have -- it's what the other players have.

In video poker a 7-high flush is a winner, but in live poker your 7-high flush would lose to an 8-high flush.

[redietz]

People have run simulations of various sized poker tournaments with math-perfect decision-makers versus good players versus novices. Basically, the conclusions seem to range from an excellent player (Jesus Ferguson) being a +200-something to a +400-something in terms of return on investment in a big, soft no limit tournament like the WSOP. The return, as Dan can explain much better than me, varies due to blind structure and tournament size.

Correct me if I'm wrong, Dan, but that seemed to be the range.

Anyway, that means the best of the best, while significant favorites to do better than Joe Citizen, aren't overwhelming favorites.

[Rob.Singer]

In other words Alan, all you can do is guess what the other players might or might not have for cards based on how big or small the bets that they might or might not make are....and all this while you wonder what their facial & body expressions might or might not be portraying as well as the signals you may or may not be sending across to them. No wonder there's so many horror stories of poker pros going broke, and I say horror stories because the nightmare doesn't usually end there. Old age always awaits, and for them there's no pension, no social security, and probably no savings.

Let's get a game going sometime and pretend we're all "good players".

[redietz]

That's pretty much it, Rob. You assign likelihoods of various hands to an individual based on his actions, and then see the community cards and do the math to see what those various likelihoods yield vis-a-vis your hand, and then decide how to act. All the while, you're holding in your head not just the hand of the moment, but your overall place in the scheme of things and how your actions will influence others' interpretations of you further into the game. Boy, it sounds simple, but when I see what has to be reckoned in seconds online, it actually requires some serious cogitatin' (as Jed Clampett would say).

[redietz]

By the way, LVA just reported that the allegedly most sophisticated computer-playing bot was eaten for lunch by four head-to-head experts over a total of 80K hands.

[Rob.Singer]

By the way, LVA just reported that the allegedly most sophisticated computer-playing bot was eaten for lunch by four head-to-head experts over a total of 80K hands.

Must be because the bot confused everyone into genius mode by not giving away any body or facial tells.

[Alan Mendelson]

Rob there are multiple ways of playing poker and how many "ways" you use is based on knowledge and experience:

1. you can play your own cards and how the match "the board" (community cards)
2. you can play how others bet
3. you can play by the personality of other players (body language)
4. you can play by the math and chances of drawing the cards you need
5. you can use your own greed or guts and bluff

and I am sure there are more "strategies."

I personally look at my own cards and look at the community cards and ask myself "do I have the best combination of cards or can someone else have something better based on the community cards?" And I'm no expert.

[dicepunk]

I am now getting emails from Total Rewards with my summer offers and the value has dropped again. In the previous three months the offers were valued at $400 and now they have a value of $300 for gift cards and free play.

I've found this to be the case for me as well. TR has reduced my freeplay offers. MGM has been dropping down 3 night comped stays to 2 nights. My play at the properties hasn't varied much over the years and I have been wondering why. At one time I used to get offers from Mandalay Bay for $300 freeplay and $200 resort credit, not anymore. Now I get offers from Bellagio 2 nights, $75 freeplay and $50 resort credit. What gives? I try to plan my trips to Las Vegas based on the offers I receive in the mail.

[Alan Mendelson]

dicepunk I am not surprised that you are telling us that MGM offers are also being cut.

While MGM doesn't have the financial problems that Caesars has, the business is very competitive. So, if Caesars is going to offer less, then MGM is going to offer less as well. And so will Stations and Wynn and Adelson's operations.