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Thread: Use of Win Goals and Stop Losses

  1. #1
    In another thread Arcimede$ made an statement which I challenged for its truthfulness and I think this is a good opportunity to discuss the use of win goals and stop losses when playing.

    First, the exchange between Arc and myself:

    Originally Posted by arcimede$ View Post
    We've got to remember .... Alan is the same person that thinks if you set a stop loss playing VP, you will do better the next time you play. Some folks are immune to logic no matter how simple it is.
    Originally Posted by Alan Mendelson View Post
    No, that is not what I said. Geesh.
    Originally Posted by arcimede$ View Post
    Yes, you did. You just didn't realize that was the logical result of your approach.
    Of course I never said that if you set a stop loss playing VP you will do better the next time you play. But setting a stop loss can have various positive benefits:

    1. If you are having a run of bad luck it will prevent you from running to the ATM over and over again until you have no money left.

    2. If you had a run of bad luck you can leave the casino knowing that you didn't lose more than you had in that session's budget (could be a day or weekend) and you won't drive home saying to yourself "why didn't I stop instead of losing more?"

    3. Using a stop loss can help you save money for next time.

    4. You might feel better -- emotionally and financially -- when you control your losses or keep them to a limit.

    Those are the reasons for using a stop loss. Of course the "math guys" will argue that you never stop -- and the next time you play is just a continuation of your previous play. Well, that's true if you take a long term approach. But none of us is going to live forever so you have to realize that even long term approaches have their limits.

    Besides, do you really want to keep running to the ATM?

    And what about win goals?

    Well, if you're winning and winning and winning -- I would never stop. But I've never had a session or a trip or a weekend when I only won and won and won. I've had periods of winning and then somehow what the video poker machine giveth the video poker machine taketh away.

    The best part of a win goal is that you feel darn good leaving the casino with "their money."

    When you go home with a little bit of "their money" it makes the outing so much more fun. So setting a win goal allows you a moment to say to yourself -- I got what I was after, now let's get the heck outta here.

  2. #2
    The problem Alan is none of those statements are necessarily true. This is what I was telling you about your misuse of simple logic. Can those things happen? Sure, but there is no more likelihood of them happening at the time you reach your loss limit than there is the next time you play. So, you could just as easily prevent winning back everything you lost while setting yourself up for big losses on your next trip.

    That is why I told you your view was based on the assumption ... "you will do better the next time you play". You just verified exactly what I said.

    PS. Remember that RF I posted? That happened when I was down about $5K. Had I left I would never had it. In fact, I also ended up hitting a 2nd RF and ended up winning over $12,500.

  3. #3
    I've made my thoughts on this clear a dozen times. If you're playing negative expectation games, win goals and stop losses are a fine idea if the result is that you play less. If you're playing positive expectation games, win goals and stop losses make no sense. If affect or emotional states enter into it, and you're playing positive expectation games, your bankroll is probably too small for how much you're betting. If affect or emotional states enter into it, and you're playing negative expectation games, you're in trouble.

  4. #4
    Originally Posted by arcimede$ View Post
    The problem Alan is none of those statements are necessarily true.
    How about this one, Arc: I feel better leaving the casino with their money.

    Are you saying that this is a lie?

    How dare you tell people not to use win goals or loss limits? Unless you think good advice is to keep playing until you lost your house, your kids college fund, and your car? You have no right to tell people to keep playing even if they are on a positive expectation game. Shame on you.

  5. #5
    Originally Posted by redietz View Post
    If you're playing positive expectation games, win goals and stop losses make no sense.
    Well that's very nice to say except that even positive expectation games are gambling games. I think going to a casino should be for one purpose and one purpose only: entertainment. Telling people to play even positive expectation games because they can earn money or gain a profit is wrong.

    There is no guarantee of winning-- ever.

  6. #6
    Originally Posted by Alan Mendelson View Post
    How about this one, Arc: I feel better leaving the casino with their money.

    Are you saying that this is a lie?

    How dare you tell people not to use win goals or loss limits? Unless you think good advice is to keep playing until you lost your house, your kids college fund, and your car? You have no right to tell people to keep playing even if they are on a positive expectation game. Shame on you.
    Your indignation is silly. All I did was demonstrate your logic is flawed. My own "advice", which is different from the pointing out poor use of logic, is not to play negative games and to never play above your bankroll even on positive games. That takes care of your concerns.

  7. #7
    Originally Posted by arcimede$ View Post
    Your indignation is silly. All I did was demonstrate your logic is flawed. My own "advice", which is different from the pointing out poor use of logic, is not to play negative games and to never play above your bankroll even on positive games. That takes care of your concerns.
    My logic is fine. Your advice about not to play negative games to never play above your bankroll even on positive games is good advice.

  8. #8
    Originally Posted by Alan Mendelson View Post
    My logic is fine. Your advice about not to play negative games to never play above your bankroll even on positive games is good advice.
    No Alan, your logic is flawed. This is no different than your trying to redefine the question on the dice thread to match your initial answer. You come up with some thought process and then you stubbornly repeat your flawed thinking no matter how often reality is pointed out. From what I can tell, you cannot admit when you are wrong at times when you've gotten emotional about the topic.

  9. #9
    My logic is flawed? You should not take a profit and run? Yeah, that's flawed: better to give it back and go home a loser.

  10. #10
    Curious what you would think of win and loss goals if you only play 12-15 sessions a year. Once a month or so for a couple hours and certainly on negative games.

    I don't necessarily have win -loss goals in horses, as I play nearly every day and do consider it one big session. However, I know when to stop if I'm cold (rephrase--not picking winners) and it is better to limit the loss and come back tomorrow with a fresh outlook and still some $$ in the pocket.

  11. #11
    Yeah, I need to add to what I said above. That was for video poker. Regnis, thanks, because I really needed to edit what I said. Regnis is right.

    Unless you're using objective, technical systems that don't require you to use your own judgement, you could be "going cold" for reasons that have to do with you and of which you are unaware. My college football betting is partially subjective and relies a lot on me, so it's possible that if I'm losing badly and outright off, then maybe something is wrong with me. In that case, the loss limits can make sense. Stop, reset, and adjust whatever needs to be adjusted. Or just rest and reboot.

    I was too harsh in my post above. I was referring only to video poker play. In gambles involving personal skill (like gambling during golf) or subjective personal judgement (like playing poker), loss limits may help you when you cannot figure out what's wrong, and what's wrong is probably you. So in this sense, I agree with Alan.
    Last edited by redietz; 05-15-2015 at 08:21 PM.

  12. #12
    I believe everyone needs an education on this topic, and some of it can be taken from most of the above comments.

    Redietz, what you're saying (about vp) is probably the most called-in gripe to Gaming Today after my columns came out, so I've seen and heard it many many times. In short, you're saying if you play positive games over time you will win, and if you play negative games over time you will lose. Since you are intelligent I'll assume you know that there may be a very tiny percentage of players who play a single denomination (or maybe a few different ones ones at infrequent times) who might be bucking those trends because of extremely good luck or horrible bad luck. I agree. It's OK....vp is not your strength so you gave it the old college try, straight from Statistics 101.

    Alan, all of your points on using stop-loss goals are 100% valid, whether you're playing <100% or >100% games. How could they not be? No one plays non-stop and everyone has physical, emotional, and other limitations. Unfortunately for them and fortunately for the casinos, most vp players have no idea and really do not care what those limitations are, once they are deeply involved in the extraordinary fever of playing. Stop-win goals are a different animal, but they too should be governed by strong discipline. We all know of the euphoria of hitting big winners and/or being in "zones" where the winners just seem to keep on coming. But when should you stop? You all know my approach, but I also know how Alan keeps playing if he keeps winning, while continuously adjusting his "leave the casino" point to being able to lose a fair amount as long as the take stays somewhere positive (or something like that). I don't see this as a strong play, but it's much better than what 99%+ of vp players are able to do.

    We also have an interesting anecdotal experience from arci, who was down $5000 (had no loss goal I guess) when he hit a few royals and left up $12k or so, and I assume he left right after the 2nd royal for some reason? That's great--except it's extremely rare to make up that type of loss on a $1 or $2 game, let alone hit TWO royals. But how many times has he NOT recovered, and who takes that much money to a casino to play $1 & $2 games anyway? It's just not a smart thing to be doing.

    Here's what mostly the math people are missing: Because of limitations in our lives and the many different mindsets individuals come into a casino with, everyone ABSOLUTELY SHOULD be playing with stop-loss and stop-win goals. It only makes sense. It feels good to win ANYTHING, it feels good to know you only lost no more than you planned ahead for, and we all hope for a better tomorrow.

    This notion that all these playing sessions have to be tied into one neat bundle of arithmetic is only valid to the point of adding and subtracting all your individual session results at the end of your life for a final tally. The argument will forever go on about my strategy with its goals, special plays, etc. as always being viewed as separate sessions with their own results, and how playing 99% games really makes no difference at all in any single session, which has yielded consistent winning for the past 15 years. These are not freak results laying on the "other side of the curve". They are pretty much what I expected when I gave up a lucrative corporate America career to do this and be home with my family more.

    Goals are good, people. They can't & don't hurt. If you find yourself unable to stop after winning a bundle or losing more than you can comfortably afford to lose, you have a problem.

  13. #13
    The last time I played a single line $1 denom machine, I brought between $7k to $8k with me. I knew I probably wouldn't need it all, but I could. But I'd definitely want to have the cash on me in case I found a strong opportunity to play.


    As for stop losses and win goals -- if you gamble every now and then (ie: almost never), go ahead and have your exit points. But if you're a frequent gambler and have your play setup on stop losses and win goals (ie: Singer's approach)...do whatever you want, the more you play, the more the casino gets, and I'm fine with that. And if you're an AP, you have other exit points (which are not based on win/loss)...like if you've finished your coin-in goal, if there's heat, if conditions are deteriorating, or some other reason.

  14. #14
    I don't really see anything wrong with them. Will they help you win? Of course not, but it doesn't hurt either.
    Last edited by jbjb; 05-15-2015 at 11:33 PM.

  15. #15
    Originally Posted by RS__ View Post
    The last time I played a single line $1 denom machine, I brought between $7k to $8k with me. I knew I probably wouldn't need it all, but I could. But I'd definitely want to have the cash on me in case I found a strong opportunity to play.


    As for stop losses and win goals -- if you gamble every now and then (ie: almost never), go ahead and have your exit points. But if you're a frequent gambler and have your play setup on stop losses and win goals (ie: Singer's approach)...do whatever you want, the more you play, the more the casino gets, and I'm fine with that. And if you're an AP, you have other exit points (which are not based on win/loss)...like if you've finished your coin-in goal, if there's heat, if conditions are deteriorating, or some other reason.
    This mostly depicts the statements of someone not fully experienced in being a strong vp player. "I knew I probably wouldn't need it all, but I could". This is similar to what many WoVers foolishly say whenever one of those "loss rebates" pop up. They GO IN expecting to lose, even if they've somehow calculated out one of those famous "theoretical edges" they're so famous for doing. They get so rambunctious over getting a few hundred or thousand dollars returned to them in free play IF they lose, that all they want to DO is lose just for the rebate! FYI & education RS, while the RoR bankroll amount for dollar 9/6 JoB vp (a loser's game right of the bat btw) is around $11,000, that has nothing to do with playing only TODAY. And anyone who plays only dollars in a session and feels they will climb back after being down $7500, does not belong in a a casino.
    Last edited by Rob.Singer; 05-16-2015 at 05:33 AM.

  16. #16
    Originally Posted by jbjb View Post
    I don't really see anything wrong with them. Will they help you win? Of course not, but it doesn't hurt either.
    Re-read what you said. "Will they help you win? Of course not...."

    Now think about it. You go in, set a stop-win limit of $1000, get ahead $1375, and go home. You've won. Did the pre-set limitation help you be a winner today? OF COURSE IT DID. Now think some more. What do MOST vp players do when they get ahead like that? Yes, they either keep sitting there and play right thru the win and lose it and more most of the time, or they stupidly take their winnings into the high limit rooms where it rarely lasts very long. In short, vp is a game where, even with that perceived "theoretical AP edge", the longer one plays the more one can expect to lose. Your only option is to do exactly what the casino does not want its players to do--leave after winning a pre-set goal. The last time I went in with a 2%-of-my-bankroll win goal I won over $90k. I left immediately and have not been back since. If I stayed or do what most people do and keep going back expecting to keep making big hits like that on my highest denomination, I would have a lot less cash on hand to be feeding this 4.5 mpg beast we travel around in. Sure, I could have stayed on and won more, especially by playing my strategy. But why? It's greed that destroys most players, and as Alan said, there's nothing like the feeling of going home a winner. There's also nothing like the feeling of winning big then going home a loser. I did that more than my share of times when I was a foolishly mislead AP.

  17. #17
    What's really interesting is that the so-called APs will keep playing after a big win... but the grandmas and Sadies of San Diego when they hit a big win take the money and go to the buffet. And they go off happy and smiling and laughing. Don't you admire that? They leave to enjoy their money.

  18. #18
    Originally Posted by Rob.Singer View Post
    This mostly depicts the statements of someone not fully experienced in being a strong vp player. "I knew I probably wouldn't need it all, but I could". This is similar to what many WoVers foolishly say whenever one of those "loss rebates" pop up. They GO IN expecting to lose, even if they've somehow calculated out one of those famous "theoretical edges" they're so famous for doing. They get so rambunctious over getting a few hundred or thousand dollars returned to them in free play IF they lose, that all they want to DO is lose just for the rebate! FYI & education RS, while the RoR bankroll amount for dollar 9/6 JoB vp (a loser's game right of the bat btw) is around $11,000, that has nothing to do with playing only TODAY. And anyone who plays only dollars in a session and feels they will climb back after being down $7500, does not belong in a a casino.
    My goal was not to win that day on the $1 machine. My goal was to play big then get big free play offers down the road.

    When playing in a loss rebate promotion, then yeah, that's a situation where you want to know when it's optimal to stop playing after a win and when it's optimal to quit playing after a loss (usually once you've reached the biggest lost).

    Not sure what you mean by your ROR / BR / $11K / dollar 9/6 JOB sentence. It really doesn't make sense....unless you add in some other information (how much you play, the edge you're playing with [if you have one]).

  19. #19
    Originally Posted by Alan Mendelson View Post
    What's really interesting is that the so-called APs will keep playing after a big win... but the grandmas and Sadies of San Diego when they hit a big win take the money and go to the buffet. And they go off happy and smiling and laughing. Don't you admire that? They leave to enjoy their money.
    That's because AP's are not in it for the "right now" like typical ploppies and gamblers are. They're in it for the long haul. They have some goal in mind (oftentimes a certain amount of coin in).


    Question: If a casino had a promotion where after doing $1,000 coin in they give you $100 in FP [or $10K coin in gets $1K in FP or $100K coin in gets $10K in FP]....would you "quit while ahead" after you hit a big hand? Or would you think, "Wait, I'm not an idiot, I'm getting close to a 10% edge on this game, I'm going to fire away until I hit the coin-in goal." ?

  20. #20
    Originally Posted by Alan Mendelson View Post
    What's really interesting is that the so-called APs will keep playing after a big win... but the grandmas and Sadies of San Diego when they hit a big win take the money and go to the buffet. And they go off happy and smiling and laughing. Don't you admire that? They leave to enjoy their money.
    Unfortunately, there are many more grandmas and Sadies that end up in Marilyn Lancelot's shoes. It's how the casinos are built!

    (LINK) Marilyn Lancelot

    "My name is Marilyn Lancelot and I am a recovering compulsive gambler. I visited my first casino in 1984 at the age of 53. For seven years, my boyfriend and I made the four-hour trek from Yuma, AZ to Laughlin, NV every weekend. I learned early on how to lie to my family and friends and how to sign my employers' name to company checks. I considered suicide and planned it so it would like an accident.

    Then one day the auditors discovered my embezzling. Horrified, I watched seven police cars pull into my driveway to take me away in handcuffs. I lost my job, home, life savings, my retirement, and my freedom. I had progressed from a Mrs. Cleaver type housewife to a Ma Barker type criminal."

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