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Thread: Use of Win Goals and Stop Losses

  1. #41
    Originally Posted by RS__ View Post
    I'm not talking about loss rebates (why do you keep bringing those up?).

    Alan, if this seems so unrealistic....I have to wonder what kind of awesome conditions there were in the 90's...
    I thought that's what you meant. How about giving an example of a 2% and one of those 5% edges? In the 90's I remember slot clubs with 2%-3% cash back. Plus full RFB was the thing of the day for years (until 5-7 years ago?) for dollar and even heavy quarter players. We also got showered with gifts, day trips, cash drawings where regular people actually won something, etc. Then there was the $5 8/5 BP machine at the Luxor that only required 3 coins to play 5 credits. And irregularities like that were found more often than they are today....and without the ability of handheld gadgets to ruin them quickly.

  2. #42
    In the beginning, video poker comps were the same as slot comps per coin in, and positive expectation vp wasn't penalized.

  3. #43
    Originally Posted by RS__ View Post
    I'm not talking about loss rebates (why do you keep bringing those up?).

    Alan, if this seems so unrealistic....I have to wonder what kind of awesome conditions there were in the 90's...
    I think the burden of proof is on you for this one. I keep close tabs on what casinos offer what rebates and so do others who frequent this forum. Suppose you tell us where this rebate of 10% on coin in (not losses, you say) is or was? And if it was (in the past) when?

    To answer your question: Yes, if a casino was really offering a 10% bonus (rebate) on every dollar of coin in with free play after the first $1,000 of coin-in I probably would set up a bed and have my meals catered to me at the machine especially if 8/5 Bonus or 8/5 Aces and Faces paying a little more than 99% were there. You'd be talking about a theoretical return of a little more than 109%. And frankly, that's a bit much to believe. As we used to say in consumer news reporting: if it's too good to be true it probably is.

    And if you don't want to publicly identify the casino, send me a private message so I can confirm this with the casino. I will keep the info confidential. You can trust me. I've kept bigger secrets.

  4. #44
    I didn't see the 10% figure; I thought it was "only" 5%. But I can't imagine either of these being the case these days without a mistake by the casino or some slick self-valuation going on.

    Yes, back in the day even the many, many +EV machines came with the slot club benefits I mentioned. It was proof casinos could make it with over 100% games. And the reason those games have been slowly removed over the years is because of no difference than what any other business goes through--the constant requirement to increase profit margin. Remember when the Suncoast & Reserve opened up with every vp machine having several 100%+ games on their menus? Those were the days.....

  5. #45
    It's only a matter of time before craps and roulette start getting worse payoffs. It's already happened to blackjack and had been going on with vp for years.

  6. #46
    A 10% rebate on coin-in for vp? A 5% rebate for coin-in on vp?

    Maybe some god-forsaken casino in the middle of North Dakota during their mid-January bring-your-own-snow-plow-and-clean-the-parking-lot event. Or maybe it's like Shirley Jackson's "The Lottery." People in an Idaho casino get chosen from a random drawing and are allowed to play 10% rebate vp for a day. Then, after sunset, they're stoned to death so the crops grow.

  7. #47
    Originally Posted by jbjb View Post
    It's only a matter of time before craps and roulette start getting worse payoffs. It's already happened to blackjack and had been going on with vp for years.
    Not all casinos pay the field, horn and hardways the same now.

  8. #48
    You know, I don't want to look askance at some of our new posters, who appear to be WoVers, but we have one guy who claims to have been thrown out of more than 100 casinos and another who gets 10% rebates on vp in the states. Now, I suppose the first gentlemen could use really bad disguises (a la Kurt Flowers, presumably) and the second could have stumbled onto some really freakish management errors (insert racist comment here about Native Americans and booze), but these claims seem way out on the end of the bell curve to me, not that there's anything wrong with that.

    Any thoughts?

    Rob, I know you have thoughts. Arci?
    Last edited by redietz; 05-17-2015 at 09:37 AM.

  9. #49
    Originally Posted by Alan Mendelson View Post
    Not all casinos pay the field, horn and hardways the same now.
    Right, and I know this. Expect it to get worse.

  10. #50
    Originally Posted by redietz View Post
    You know, I don't want to look askance at some of our new posters, who appear to be WoVers, but we have one guy who claims to have been thrown out of more than 100 casinos and another who gets 10% rebates on vp in the states. Now, I suppose the first gentlemen could use really bad disguises (a la Kurt Flowers, presumably) and the second could have stumbled onto some really freakish management errors (insert racist comment here about Native Americans and booze), but these claims seem way out on the end of the bell curve to me, not that there's anything wrong with that.

    Any thoughts?

    Rob, I know you have thoughts. Arci?
    I can't speak for any loss rebate stuff as I don't play them. But obviously you know nothing about table games advantage play. I suggest you read Beyond Counting and it's newer version Exhibit CAA. Also pick up Advanced Advantage Play. Or read Eliot Jacobson's blog.

  11. #51
    No, it can be done. There are roughly 1,500 casinos in the US, so getting tossed out of 100 is within the realm of possibility. I just find it a really odd thing to proclaim as a badge of courage. Getting tossed means you weren't exactly subtle.

    On the flip side, according to court records, John Ferguson (Stanford Wong) testified under oath that card counting in today's casino environment is of little value.

  12. #52
    Red, having had an interesting stint on WoV a while back, there's a clear explanation of where these claims of being 86'd and the unbelievable vp edges come from.

    First, we all know they are an AP gambling (and I'm very surprised they're even calling it "gambling") based forum. So when one of them talks of being "backed off" or banned from playing this game or that game from ANY casino, the rest of them cream their pants, as their minds then float off into the fantasy world of probabilities & theories...a safe world of discussion only, which is where most AP's reside.

    Combine this with the non-stop discussions they have about card counting techniques, playing massive amounts of hands on WinPoker etc. And all the what-ifs surrounding the hands, and how great a winner they perceive this boisterous AP or that self-proclaimed "overcomped" genius is, and you have the needed recipe for some of these guys to cook up stories like this 5% or 10% nonsense like it's only the super-intelligent players who can see this stuff. I've seen them post these kind of claims regularly. They always say it's a secret so as not to "have the play killed by AP's with deep pockets hammering the Heck out of them". So just as some of them claim to be winners but have never once offered up any proof of it whatsoever, the same goes for these mysterious fabulously lucrative edges.

    It all comes down to AP being nothing more than a state of mind. They encourage each other to come up with this stuff. Look at the junk tales they used to love to buy from mickeycrimm before the admins finally smartened up and nuked the fool.
    Last edited by Rob.Singer; 05-17-2015 at 12:56 PM.

  13. #53
    The weird thing, Rob, is that (hypothetically speaking) if I had been backed off from, say, an offshore sports book or some such, or let's say I knew people who were backed off, why in the world would I tell anybody?

    It's not like "getting backed off" is some big, rare thing. Sports bettors get told, "I'm sorry, sir, we can only take x from you" all the time. And you say, "But I thought the limit was y." And they say, "I'm sorry, we can only take x."
    Last edited by redietz; 05-17-2015 at 01:09 PM.

  14. #54
    Originally Posted by jbjb View Post
    I can't speak for any loss rebate stuff as I don't play them. But obviously you know nothing about table games advantage play. I suggest you read Beyond Counting and it's newer version Exhibit CAA. Also pick up Advanced Advantage Play. Or read Eliot Jacobson's blog.
    R. Singer is a million per cent correct about those guys.

    I have read countless "book reports" which dismiss the stuff across many more-serious sites than the Wizard's. The Wizard's isn't even a serious players' site. How many ways can lipstick be put on the same "pig".

    Real life doesn't happen in a book or blog. All the great musicians and rock bands were classically trained, but at no time could they not play extensively by ear. Profiting by playing the casinos against the players - a type of arms dealing in blanks - is another sort of scamming, in my opinion. Some guy runs out of lipstick, so he hastily turns his blog into a book or manuscript for $50. What next.

  15. #55
    A loss rebate of 10% and a 10% coin-in rebate are completely differet.

    For example, if I were forced to play 10 million -EV hands (even at "full pay JoB, and even if I could somehow play them really quickly without investing the massive amount of time), I wouldn't take a 99% loss rebate offer to do so! That's because I'm almost certain to lose (with an EXTREMELY high percentage chance of this), to where I'll virtually be guaranteed a loss, albeit 1% of the expected loss, but still a substantial amount of money.

    A coin-in rebate, however, is great, and substantially adds to your EV immediately.
    Check out my poker forum, and weekly internet radio show at http://pokerfraudalert.com

  16. #56
    Originally Posted by redietz View Post
    The weird thing, Rob, is that (hypothetically speaking) if I had been backed off from, say, an offshore sports book or some such, or let's say I knew people who were backed off, why in the world would I tell anybody?

    It's not like "getting backed off" is some big, rare thing. Sports bettors get told, "I'm sorry, sir, we can only take x from you" all the time. And you say, "But I thought the limit was y." And they say, "I'm sorry, we can only take x."
    I know, and I don't question that there's lots of people backed off of table games like BJ. Never gave sports betting or racing a thought but I'm sure there's reasons to get backed off there too. But after one or a few, casinos share information so maybe that's how he got to a hundred. Again more theory. However, it rarely happens with video poker play without some shenanigans by the player. Yeah certain people like to claim they've been "backed off or banned" from playing vp here or there, and others like to casually throw out how they "know" this guy or that guy was backed off. But where has there ever been proof of any of it....or why? That's the reason I published my ban letter from Bellagio, and I believe I'm the only vp pro or non-pro ever to do that. Otherwise you're right, for most players it makes no sense to announce it.

  17. #57
    The question, Dan, is have you ever encountered a 10%, or even a 5%, coin-in rebate? I never have, but I lead a sheltered life.

    The Atlantic City blackjack scenario I mentioned featured a loss rebate, but the player was able to define a trip as a single day or several days, and was able to torture them without needing to count cards. He would either win and quit for the trip, or play to reach his loss rebate threshold and then quit and call it a trip, and rotate this among several casinos. Good work, if you can get it.

  18. #58
    I didn't bring up the 5-10% "rebate" to discuss it. I brought it up to show a reason why I keep playing after a big win or why I keep playing if I'm stuck some huge amount. If you want validation or proof, sorry. Not today.

  19. #59
    Originally Posted by Rob.Singer View Post
    ...or why? That's the reason I published my ban letter from Bellagio, and I believe I'm the only vp pro or non-pro ever to do that. Otherwise you're right, for most players it makes no sense to announce it.
    To pretend to prove that it has something to do with a winning system.

    People get banned for handing out business cards, for heaven's sake. Even winning over a period of time isn't proof of anything. We can hardly go by any casino's assessment of any incident, let alone a ban. Perhaps, they thought you were making the other players uncomfortable with your own "shenanigans"?

    People who claim things over and over but don't then over and over provide the actual proof of their claim by independent professional analysts have less than zero case. But, you can't do so because that would "let the cat out of the bag"? Well, no one's forced you to go on with your essentially baseless but nonsensical approach to gambling. This is gambling and everything which goes with it after all. "No exit".

  20. #60
    Originally Posted by RS__ View Post
    I didn't bring up the 5-10% "rebate" to discuss it. I brought it up to show a reason why I keep playing after a big win or why I keep playing if I'm stuck some huge amount. If you want validation or proof, sorry. Not today.
    And there you have it. It's obviously nothing more than theory. Thank you for validating everything I said, and in front of a group of people who know how to interpret correctly.

    You are learning. No wonder you stick around.

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