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Thread: Rincon millionaire: what are the odds?

  1. #1
    Someone will be picked as the next Rincon millionaire tonight but how do you figure your odds?

    You must be present to win and I am sure that limits the pool to 10,000 or fewer. After all it's not a big place.

    The computer drawing probably favors players who play more but the rules say everyone gets a free entry to get around the state lottery laws.

    So what are your odds?

  2. #2
    If you've barely played in 2015 (or haven't played at all), probably one in many millions.
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  3. #3
    Originally Posted by Dan Druff View Post
    If you've barely played in 2015 (or haven't played at all), probably one in many millions.
    I don't know if it's many millions?? Some players who only had one point from a free swipe have been picked for the $1,000 free play drawings -- and it's happened several times.

    Also, since the winner must be present and the capacity at the casino is probably no more than about 4,000 (my earlier estimate was very high) I think that improves the odds for everyone.

    The mystery, of course, is how your play weights your chances. Any ideas?

  4. #4
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    I heard the winner was a regular that plays BIG in the high limits room. He will probably win the $50 K in the following months as well.

  5. #5
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    This was posted on Rincon's facebook
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  6. #6
    The previous million dollar winner is also a high limit table player. Rumor is after six months she lost back half of the million.

  7. #7
    Originally Posted by Alan Mendelson View Post
    The previous million dollar winner is also a high limit table player. Rumor is after six months she lost back half of the million.
    Just cementing what I said in the other thread...

  8. #8
    Originally Posted by timspeed View Post
    Just cementing what I said in the other thread...
    Of course. If one player does it every player must do it. (Sarcastic )

  9. #9
    Originally Posted by Alan Mendelson View Post
    Of course. If one player does it every player must do it. (Sarcastic )
    Just spectulating what I saw with my own eyes when I was at JANugget in Reno, for every drawing...
    I'll tell ya a story though, there WAS a guy who won, when I first started going, who really only came to the casino on the weekend to play like $20-$40 at the bar and get free beers...he won the $10k...and JUST LIKE THAT, he was playing $5 slots and $25 tables...and within a few months, he was back at the bar...so I asked him "Mark, what happened?" and he said "I lost all the $10k back."
    ANOTHER time too...this girl who I'd never seen before (young and pretty, really) won a $25k drawing and ALL OF A SUDDEN I see her playing black chips on the tables...same story...few months afterwards, she was back to playing red chips...she lost it back too...
    Maybe I'm getting to be too much like Rob Singer?

  10. #10
    But Rob Singer never lost it back. Just ask him.

  11. #11
    Originally Posted by Alan Mendelson View Post
    But Rob Singer never lost it back. Just ask him.
    and Bob Dancer won a Range Rover...some people are just lucky, I guess :/

  12. #12
    Getting back to the original question...

    If only high rollers are winning the big money, why should anyone else bother? I am sure there are "low rollers" who overextend themselves on the drawing dates to get "extra entries." Rincon even entices them (and the rest of us) by giving "multipliers" of entries for play on the drawing dates.

    A reality check that high rollers dominate the number of entries and the chance of winning could keep a lot of players from showing up. Me? I haven't been to ANY of the million dollar drawings.

  13. #13
    Originally Posted by Alan Mendelson View Post
    Getting back to the original question...

    If only high rollers are winning the big money, why should anyone else bother? I am sure there are "low rollers" who overextend themselves on the drawing dates to get "extra entries." Rincon even entices them (and the rest of us) by giving "multipliers" of entries for play on the drawing dates.

    A reality check that high rollers dominate the number of entries and the chance of winning could keep a lot of players from showing up. Me? I haven't been to ANY of the million dollar drawings.
    You shouldn't bother.

    This is a tribe which just degraded all most of their very busy full pay (but still -EV) VP machines, just because they weren't making ENOUGH money.

    They aren't just handing out $1,000,000 to some casual gambler who is going to walk out and never come back.

    Clearly these are heavily weighted toward people who earned lots of "extra entries" through heavy play.

    FYI, when I won the opportunity to do that "plinko" contest, I was hammering $5-per-credit VP during the promotional period, and I'm sure that's why I won. If I was just there and not playing, there's almost zero chance I would have been picked.
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  14. #14
    I heard that the day of the million dollar drawing when Robin Leach was MC the place was so packed with every seat in the casino taken that they had a profit of more than a Million dollars.

  15. #15
    If you do not know the weighted entry system for a drawing, then there is a reason you do not know the weighted entry system for that drawing.

    Whether one wants to refer to it as "rigging" or "orchestrating" is up to you, but a casino is within its legal rights to employ a kind of logarithmic scale if it chooses. For example, for play up to 10K, one could get one entry per $100. For play between 10K and 100K, 10 entries per $100. For play between 100K and 500K, 100 entries per $10. It's a legal setup, it's like a regressive tax system, and it skirts words like "rigging" and "orchestrating" in a neat, economical fashion.

  16. #16
    redietz: Rincon says its winners are chosen by "computer." Do you know of the various programs that casinos use? Hollywood Park (poker casino) in LA also used a computer for drawings. Heck, I had my name called at Hollywood Park -- but I wasn't playing that night, and lost out on $5K.

  17. #17
    Originally Posted by Alan Mendelson View Post
    Someone will be picked as the next Rincon millionaire tonight but how do you figure your odds?

    You must be present to win and I am sure that limits the pool to 10,000 or fewer. After all it's not a big place.

    The computer drawing probably favors players who play more but the rules say everyone gets a free entry to get around the state lottery laws.

    So what are your odds?
    If casinos are required to give at least one free entry to work around state lottery laws, isn't there also a strong legal case for casinos to be compelled to reveal the odds per entry as the total running tally of entries are counted via collaborative point accumulations among the casino patrons?

    I am asking this because I have seen on standard sweepstakes that such sponsors as Publisher's Clearing House are compelled to reveal the exact odds of winning in the fine print in the interest of consumer protection. Why wouldn't casinos be required to do the same and reveal the exact chances a player (or single-entry visitor) currently has? Oftentimes a player can swipe his/her card at a kiosk to see the number of entries in a drawing, so it wouldn't be a hard task updating software to keep a real-time tally of the odds as entries accumulate throughout the casino.
    Last edited by Count Room; 07-04-2015 at 03:19 PM.

  18. #18
    Count Room that's good info but I'm sure the casinos will only do the minimum required.

  19. #19
    Originally Posted by Alan Mendelson View Post
    Count Room that's good info but I'm sure the casinos will only do the minimum required.

    Alan: Of course, you're right about this and the casinos will do as little as possible. This is why I was wondering if there seems to be a strong legal case here to force the casinos to comply with showing real, actual odds of winning similarly to what Publisher's Clearing House has been forced to do for more years than I care to remember.

    In PCH's contests, you are mailed a bunch of magazine subscription offers with the notice that buying something won't help your chances of winning.

    If places such as PCH are being forced to give exact odds of winning in a situation where buying makes no difference, wouldn't it be even more critical that the casino patron be well-informed of the current exact odds given that more gambling gives you a better chance?

    I sense new legal possibilities here in terms of general consumer protection laws, but I am not an expert in this field.

  20. #20
    Originally Posted by redietz View Post
    If you do not know the weighted entry system for a drawing, then there is a reason you do not know the weighted entry system for that drawing.

    Whether one wants to refer to it as "rigging" or "orchestrating" is up to you, but a casino is within its legal rights to employ a kind of logarithmic scale if it chooses. For example, for play up to 10K, one could get one entry per $100. For play between 10K and 100K, 10 entries per $100. For play between 100K and 500K, 100 entries per $10. It's a legal setup, it's like a regressive tax system, and it skirts words like "rigging" and "orchestrating" in a neat, economical fashion.

    It could be rigged even further than that. It could be rigged to the point where a certain player is almost certain to win. Likely not with the $1M drawing. But with other drawings, the casino could give out 1 entry per 100 TC ($1,000 coin in = 1 entry). The one guy who they want to win the drawing, they give him some absurd amount of entries, like 500,000 entries.

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