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Thread: Great theoretical edges

  1. #1
    In another thread there was a claim that there was a player edge of as much as 9% on certain video poker. It could be slots or any machine game, for that matter.

    My question: list your great theoretical edges. Yes, you must mention the casino so it can be verified.

    I wonder how you would value the "edge" on this particular offer on the U Choose at Rincon:

    Show up at the casino and play $500 to score 50 total rewards tier points (I choose on a video poker machine with a 99.17% return) and then get an additional $90 of free play. Not cash -- but free play. What's it worth?

    I am not going to include the "show up" offers where I get free play just for showing up.

  2. #2
    Only an idiot would mention where they're getting a juicy game whether it's VP or table games. I'd be stupid to tell anyone where I play Mississippi Stud with a dealer flashing 5th street which gives me an over 100% edge.

  3. #3
    A dealer flashing cards doesn't count as a player edge over a casino. You're dealing with an inept dealer. Not with an edge provided by a casino game, promotion, etc. that players can take advantage of.

  4. #4
    Don't know about table game "edges" but we occasionally see people on various forums pop out of the woodwork with these claims of unrealistic video poker edges. The only person I know of who is an expert at creating these 8,9, even 10% or more vp edges is Jean Scott. She can take a 98.8% game, tack on the usual 1-2% slot club fluff, add in room offers, shows, food, gifts and other comps, then throw in a few % here and a few % there for filling her purse with rolls and fruits from the buffet & getting those oh-so-special smiles from her hosts, and VOILA!....109%!!

  5. #5
    Originally Posted by jbjb View Post
    Only an idiot would mention where they're getting a juicy game whether it's VP or table games.
    At least jbjb has some common sense.

  6. #6
    You know how the Wizard of Vegas boys crucify anyone who believes in dice control because they can't produce a video of it? Well, that's what I think about anyone who claims there are mega returns on video poker machines and table games without revealing what casino has it.

  7. #7
    Alan: Perhaps a better question would be asking everyone about great edges that once existed which have already been squashed by the casinos. You might find some interesting stories there...

  8. #8
    Originally Posted by Alan Mendelson View Post
    You know how the Wizard of Vegas boys crucify anyone who believes in dice control because they can't produce a video of it? Well, that's what I think about anyone who claims there are mega returns on video poker machines and table games without revealing what casino has it.
    Unfortunately (for you), big edges on VP/machines aren't just "theoretical" or guesswork. I've given an example or two, but you and/or others said "that's not possible" or some comment about some north or south dakota casino. If you're interested, I might be able to sell you some information, but it wouldn't be cheap. I'll personally (or perhaps have someone else) show you where and how to do it.

    But I don't need to reveal the casinos or what to do to prove huge edges are possible:

    1) The math shows the huge edges are there.
    2) Results.

    The math isn't based on some theoretical "IF I can keep the dice on axis" or "IF I have a 1:7 SRR...." kind of math. It's simply my negative EV (usually loss on coin-in) added to my +EV (free-play, promotion, drawing, etc.).

    And the results are pretty close to what I expect them to be. Results are not due to some big hand or "fluke", like dealt royals or anything out of the ordinary.

  9. #9
    Okay RS__ beat this:

    $460 free play requiring no initial real money bet plus $60 food comp. I use it on 8/5 Bonus. My edge beats your edge. It's astronomical in fact.

    I won't charge you for the info. I get it once a month at Rincon.

  10. #10
    Congratulations, you have an astronomical edge.

  11. #11
    Alan, that's the kind of "edge" the amateur is referring to. Only he won't include how much he lost getting the free play etc. because that just doesn't fit his "AP scenario" or talking points.

    The rest is taken from his liberal education on the Wizard's forum, as such:

    1. Suddenly start a thread claiming you know a play that's astronomically lucrative.
    2. Ask a few innocent questions about your "find" to sort of "legitimize it" while cajoling the cast of usual suspects into the conversation. This part is important, in that you can almost FEEL their envious, sweaty palms as well as their racing hearts.
    3. Hope the Wizard joins in, thereby sealing the play as "authentic", and the OP as some sort of casino genius AP who will enjoy "hammering that play to death" while it lasts!
    4. Throughout this process and in the future, you will forever be thought of as a big winner because of your story-telling and its accompanying slick presentation.

    And this is exactly what that phony two-bit BS clown mickeycrimm has done across the internet gambling forums for years, if you're looking for a reference. His method of operation is first to create a haven of 110%+ plays on machines in the no-man's-land of Montana along with claims of winning six figures from them every year. Then he makes up stories from the past on how he drained Nevada casinos as an AP in order to solidify his standing as the "greatest slot pro ever!" among dreamers like RS__ and others who take their forum-posting queues from losers in life like Mickey. Of course, everyone keeps one important fact in the back of their minds when reading his crap: He's a binge-drinking, cigarette smoking alcoholic with rotted out teeth and a big fat gut. So how much different is he, really, from the typical AP? And one thing our friend Mickey never counted on is anyone bothering going to Montana to check out his lies. I did that and only because I was just passing thru. He lives in Moose Drool fantasyland.

  12. #12
    Originally Posted by Alan Mendelson View Post
    A dealer flashing cards doesn't count as a player edge over a casino. You're dealing with an inept dealer. Not with an edge provided by a casino game, promotion, etc. that players can take advantage of.
    It doesn't count? Are you off your rocker?

    Ok, so you're just asking about things under normal conditions? Then no, I know of no astronomical edges. But as I said, if I were to find any, I sure as hell wouldn't advertise them. Nor should you or anyone else either.

  13. #13
    Originally Posted by Rob.Singer View Post
    Alan, that's the kind of "edge" the amateur is referring to. Only he won't include how much he lost getting the free play etc. because that just doesn't fit his "AP scenario" or talking points.

    The rest is taken from his liberal education on the Wizard's forum, as such:

    1. Suddenly start a thread claiming you know a play that's astronomically lucrative.
    2. Ask a few innocent questions about your "find" to sort of "legitimize it" while cajoling the cast of usual suspects into the conversation. This part is important, in that you can almost FEEL their envious, sweaty palms as well as their racing hearts.
    3. Hope the Wizard joins in, thereby sealing the play as "authentic", and the OP as some sort of casino genius AP who will enjoy "hammering that play to death" while it lasts!
    4. Throughout this process and in the future, you will forever be thought of as a big winner because of your story-telling and its accompanying slick presentation.

    And this is exactly what that phony two-bit BS clown mickeycrimm has done across the internet gambling forums for years, if you're looking for a reference. His method of operation is first to create a haven of 110%+ plays on machines in the no-man's-land of Montana along with claims of winning six figures from them every year. Then he makes up stories from the past on how he drained Nevada casinos as an AP in order to solidify his standing as the "greatest slot pro ever!" among dreamers like RS__ and others who take their forum-posting queues from losers in life like Mickey. Of course, everyone keeps one important fact in the back of their minds when reading his crap: He's a binge-drinking, cigarette smoking alcoholic with rotted out teeth and a big fat gut. So how much different is he, really, from the typical AP? And one thing our friend Mickey never counted on is anyone bothering going to Montana to check out his lies. I did that and only because I was just passing thru. He lives in Moose Drool fantasyland.
    I love Robs rants!!

  14. #14
    Jbjb I think it's perfectly okay to discuss special casino promotions and offers so others can take advantage of them.

    One of the best public offers I took advantage of came from a forum member.

    Pauma near Rincon was matching your "status" and your weekly free play -- just show your players card and mailer.

    On my way to Rincon I stopped at Pauma and showed them my 7 Stars Card and my mailer. They gave me their top card with all the benefits plus about $400 of free play.

    That casino had 9/6 Jacks at $1. Ran my $400 thru once, actually hit quads once, and left -- never returned.

    Pauma gave me a shot and in turn they took their shot at getting my business. It was a win-win but Pauma didn't have a rewards program that helped in Vegas.

  15. #15
    I can understand great promos and stuff like that, especially if it's advertised to the public. My contention is, that if you find something lucrative that isn't general knowledge, keep it to yourself. Why kill the opportunity?

    Say for example I found a DDB game with a 13/6 paytable with all else being the same. Obviously this would be some IGT goof and is highly unlikely, but in this example, I wouldn't say squat to anyone!
    Last edited by jbjb; 07-23-2015 at 09:09 AM.

  16. #16
    In the mid 2000's I stumbled across an 8/5BP machine at Ellis Island during one of my 20 casino RTT trips. It was paying 400 credits not only for four Aces, but also for four 2's thru 10's. I sat and played it on dollars for as long as I could stay awake, which was at least 24 hours (typical AP stuff, right?). I walked with several thousand in profit. When I returned to Nv. the following week the machine's pay table was fixed.

    I never told anyone about it before or after until now, and I certainly wasn't going to write an article gloating about it like Dancer does. I had no idea if the casino would come after me, and in the week between I definitely was hoping no one else found out about the mistake.

    There are times you should tell others about good plays, such as ones that are out in the open and are not based on mistakes, and there are times you keep your mouth shut.

  17. #17
    Originally Posted by Rob.Singer View Post
    In the mid 2000's I stumbled across an 8/5BP machine at Ellis Island during one of my 20 casino RTT trips. It was paying 400 credits not only for four Aces, but also for four 2's thru 10's. I sat and played it on dollars for as long as I could stay awake, which was at least 24 hours (typical AP stuff, right?). I walked with several thousand in profit. When I returned to Nv. the following week the machine's pay table was fixed.

    I never told anyone about it before or after until now, and I certainly wasn't going to write an article gloating about it like Dancer does. I had no idea if the casino would come after me, and in the week between I definitely was hoping no one else found out about the mistake.

    There are times you should tell others about good plays, such as ones that are out in the open and are not based on mistakes, and there are times you keep your mouth shut.
    Exactly how we feel.

  18. #18
    If AP's claim to fame is finding mistakes -- whether by dealers or manufacturers -- then they aren't really "advantage players." They're just lucky to have someone screw up to their benefit.

    If AP's claim that vulturing Ultimate X machines with abandoned bonuses is what makes them "advantage players" I hope they have fun walking from casino to casino.

    If you ask me a true AP doesn't have to depend on flukes and luck and errors to come out ahead.

    My daughter was once tipped a $1,000 chip because of a lucky roll she had at Caesars when a mega high roller was on the table. That was being lucky. Does that make her an AP too?

    And I would argue that every time I walk into Rincon, run my free play through the machine once and eat my free meal, it makes me the champion AP of all time.

  19. #19
    Originally Posted by Alan Mendelson View Post
    If you ask me a true AP doesn't have to depend on flukes and luck and errors to come out ahead.
    What, get a real job with real benefits? Or actually invent and develop something in the real world?

    C'mon Alan, you've been to the Wizard's: Getting fired three months after starting work at a casino, passing the cup, and McWing challenges to see who barfs first.

    It always ends the same. Go over there today, and look at the new ads placement? He who laughs last laughs best.

  20. #20
    Originally Posted by Alan Mendelson View Post
    ...If you ask me a true AP doesn't have to depend on flukes and luck and errors to come out ahead...
    Flukes, luck, or errors have nothing to do with it. It's having the knowledge to know what to do with them is what matters.

    There are all types of different AP'ers out there. I'm sure some things you do even qualify.

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