Well, after opening my mouth, I hit 4 A's on 5c bp this am while on artt. I tucked tail and left with a $20 win and $60 for the day. Hard to do, but I did it. FWIW, it was the very first hand and I kept the A instead of AK.Originally Posted by Rob.Singer
Rob: Couldn't using your special plays 5% of the time be considered some weird skill that makes the winners appear?Originally Posted by Rob.Singer
The difference, especially on nickels, is only going to be fractions of a penny. Holding AK gives you a 1 in 16215 shot at aces. Holding just the ace it's 1 in 4053.75. I'm guessing this is the whole point of Rob's special plays while not giving up much by deviating from BS.Originally Posted by slingshotWell, after opening my mouth, I hit 4 A's on 5c bp this am while on artt. I tucked tail and left with a $20 win and $60 for the day. Hard to do, but I did it. FWIW, it was the very first hand and I kept the A instead of AK.
It doesn't make the winners appear--it gives them a better opportunity to appear. And yes, that is a skill because I did a lot of work developing the special plays which have made me a lot of money over the years.Originally Posted by Count Room
I never hold an unsuited Ace with another high card or two other high cards in any game where four Aces pay at least 400 credits. Always only the Ace, and while some may argue that I've "given up" lots of 5 or slightly more credit winners over the years, the number of times I've hit four Aces from it far, far surpasses all those tiny, uninteresting pushes and small winners. Aside from that, everyone forgets the number of other small winners that can hit by holding a lone Ace. The theories about how much this is "costing me" or what I've "lowered the game EV to" is irrelevant. Completely.
In all of the double double type games you would never hold AK unsuited -- and just the ace. So this "special play" isn't so special. I think this special play applies only to Bonus.
Well, I just held KJo over a lone A and drew the other three jacks.
Update: the hand above was on 8/5 BP. Now while picking, saw two 2x's on triple play DDB and was dealt AJo. Held just the A and on the second 2x drew A555 for a 45 x 2 or 90 credit win boat. I'll stick to my strategy :-)Originally Posted by jbjb
Did you notice that the game I mostly play is SDBP? In that game holding the lone AQo is the optimal play.Originally Posted by Alan Mendelson
Because you have a chance at either quad?Originally Posted by Rob.Singer
Because you have a chance at either quad?Originally Posted by Rob.Singer
There is only a 0.003% difference between AQo and a lone A in that game. Basically negligible.
That's correct sling, in addition to one quad being worth 600 and the other is 800.
jbjb, correct. And that's exactly how precise I was in my strategy's & special plays' development before I began using them. Sometimes there's these negligible differences and sometimes they're huge (as in my most famous moment of correctly tossing a three queen deal to hold 3-to-the-royal). But I've always played consistently, which is where all the criticism has come from. People just can't get by the theory of it all, which means absolutely nothing once the hand is over.
Rob what is the percentage of special plays that hit the target?
Alan, that has to be an unknown. How often do the ap plays hit the target? Is there a hot or cold cycle? Etc. Which brings up another point- do sweeps, one card holds, and other "special" plays aid in identifying hot or cold cycles? Hang on everybody!Originally Posted by Alan Mendelson
I don't think it's unknown. I believe the way Rob's system works is, if he ever hits four A's or a royal, then the target has been hit. If the target has not been hit, then he'd be playing a higher denom. It isn't difficult to figure out the probability of turning a hold of X cards and turning it into Y hand or better.Originally Posted by slingshot
Not sure what you mean by your second sentence, but it definitely differs by what the play is. One play I have, you're almost guaranteed to be a winner after 1 hour of playing. Other plays (which I generally avoid) can take hundreds of hours to be in that "almost guaranteed to be a winner".
Not sure what you're trying to say regarding "hot/cold cycles".
No, if I hit four A's or a royal or actually any of the special quads in any of the games I play, it's either because of an optimal hold or a special play. I've never kept track (because as I've repeated often, the only statistic I DO keep track of is my overall results) of what the numbers are on this, but I'd say while optimal play has yielded more than half of my session-ending wins, special plays have given me my biggest wins.
jbjb mentioned hitting four jacks by holding AJ o (or maybe it was a Q). Three times at the Aquarius in Laughlin I've used a special play on $25 SDBP and held only the J or Q instead of two high cards, and I hit a 600 credit winner. Now the "give" was really negligible, but w/o the play, which an AP would not make, that's $45,000 worth of winners that would have never appeared. And my play at that high a level is not that much compared to $1 thru $10. So when these huge winners appear (as they did in the string of them that I posted her about 2 years ago) it's not as if I go out and sit at the high denom. machines every day or for very long when I do sit at them. In fact it's just the opposite.
Last edited by Rob.Singer; 08-20-2015 at 06:33 AM.
So what Rob is telling us is that his special plays have no extra chances of hitting. Okay that's fair enough. It's the same with all conventional plays. For example when dealt ten, jack, queen, king of spades you still have 1/47 chance of getting the royal.
Unless it's jokers than it's 1/48 or more. :-)
In general special plays give you a lower chance at hitting a big win. This is the point Alan made above about hitting on the last few credits. I went through the math previously in another thread and found that in most cases Singer's special plays reduce ones chances of a big win.
Do I have to mention Singer is the same person that claimed to live in a big house which later turned out to be a small apartment? All of his claims of big wins are suspect.
I see I should a kept my thoughts to myself. I was merely saying that I felt my play was extended on some sessions by choosing the simpler, more common special plays instead of the normal hold of both high cards- as per the vp wideos that were posted on this forum.
There are currently 1 users browsing this thread. (0 members and 1 guests)
Posting Permissions
Reply With Quote