How do you prove your "advantage play" and winning strategy?

[jbjb]

None of the above described is advantage play. All of it will lose. I've seen zero proof any of it works. All I see is talk and no action. Winners play and keep quiet. Losers talk shit all day.

[Rob.Singer]

None of the above described is advantage play. All of it will lose. I've seen zero proof any of it works. All I see is talk and no action. Winners play and keep quiet. Losers talk shit all day.

It's always easy to cry out "I've never seen the proof"! But, whenever anyone asks any of the "advantage players" and/or those who claim the "winners are the quiet ones who lurk on the streets of LV etc." in order to give the perception that they win win win, to provide THEIR proof, the request is either ignored or obfuscated into convenient oblivion.

I've gone thru the "prove it to me" challenge at least a half dozen times, and whenever I get close, the accusers simply disappear. Go read the history on WoV for one example, or the Fezzik Challenge in Gaming TODAY for another. Yet I have never once seen Dancer or any of the other so-called vp "winners" offer up anything but excuses. And our own AP arci, when challenged to provide his proof, runs around in circles and claims his "advantage play" is proof enuf. Of course, he has a boatload of guilt he's dealing with these days, but maybe, just maybe he'll eventually come around and provide proof.

[RS__]

Rob, the problem is when we provide our proof, you dismiss it, comments like, "free play isn't cash, it has no value", "only losers play for comps", "just because the HE is ~0.5%, anything can happen when you play", etc....

[Alan Mendelson]

I am moving some posts from another thread here to make this topic independent. I would like to keep the discussion here.

I think it's a worthwhile subject, too.

[Alan Mendelson]

Rob, the problem is when we provide our proof, you dismiss it, comments like, "free play isn't cash, it has no value", "only losers play for comps", ....

I'd like to comment:

free play isn't cash and has no value until it becomes winnings.
Never play for comps because comps are usually worth only 1/10 of 1% of what you played. Unless you are also winning that's a very poor rebate on losses.

[redietz]

Why would anyone who wins discuss how they win? I can see some motive if you're about to retire and want to pass on your "wisdom," or if you're an egomaniac and being respected means more than the winning, but realistically, most people who win are going to keep their methodology to themselves.

There are plenty of reasons to not discuss how one wins, and not too many reasons to blab.

[RS__]

I'd like to comment:

free play isn't cash and has no value until it becomes winnings.
Never play for comps because comps are usually worth only 1/10 of 1% of what you played. Unless you are also winning that's a very poor rebate on losses.

#1 Free play can easily be turned into cash. Not at a 1:1 rate, but pretty close to it.

#2 Uhh what? Do you REALLY believe that?

[Alan Mendelson]

#1 Free play can easily be turned into cash. Not at a 1:1 rate, but pretty close to it.

what you are going to have to do then, is give the actual "conversion rate" of your free play into cash. This doesn't mean that if you are playing a 99.17% game that your free play is automatically worth 99.17% of its face value. You'll actually have to present a log of your session or trip wins and losses -- and this is pretty much Rob's argument.

I've played on machines that had a pay table of greater than 100% and still lost -- because I didn't hit a royal.

Your next comment was a reaction to my statement "never play for comps because comps are usually worth only 1/10 of 1% of what you played."

#2 Uhh what? Do you REALLY believe that?

Yes, I never play for comps. And at most casinos where I've played comps are 1/10 of 1% of your coin in.

I do take the comps that come my way but, for example, I do not do things such as play on "multiplier days" to build up my comps. Instead I will show up at a casino if there is a free play offer. It is unlikely that there are free play offers on multiplier days -- but if that happened it would be a dream situation.

On most video poker, adding in the value of comps still does not give you a positive game to play.

[RS__]

I don't have a log of my 2014 play anymore....in the first 8'ish months of the year, I did slightly over $1M coin-in and my return was 99.3%. I don't know how much free-play I collected, but my return was around 97% (ie: $100 in FP = $97 cash). Then I switched the way I logged my sessions to an easier/simpler spreadsheet. I could do some digging around [on an old computer], trying to remember usernames and passwords. But even if I were to post that information (which I doubt I'd do), y'all would claim my logs are cooked.

Alan, do you consider free-play (you get in the mail) to be a comp?

[Alan Mendelson]

Yes, I consider free play offers as a comp. In fact, some of the offers from Caesars allow you to choose between free play or "shopping" for the same dollar amount. For example, I recently got an offer for a $300 Macy's Gift Card or $300 of free play -- my choice.

[Rob.Singer]

This is typical of asking for proof from AP's. They think they can simply say their "log" says so so it has got to be true, and then they claim their add-ons do even more.

Here's a flash RS__: the word PROOF does not mean having an anonymous personality write something on a forum and it's gospel. Please wise up....again.

Redietz, I'm not sure how you understood the issue to be about HOW people win. However, why do you believe someone who's discovered their own "special" way of winning has to remain a secret? I've never gotten the thrust behind that type of comment whenever and wherever I've seen it. I can see if someone's discovered a temporary casino flaw of some sort, but not if they've figured out a consistent method of winning. In the majority of cases (and I base this on my own) anyone who has been able to figure out a way to regularly mug the casinos at their own game has to have a very complex, spatially capable/logically thorough mind, and no matter how often the exact details are spoken, written, and explained, few if any will ever be able to exactly duplicate it.

Alan, you know these guys are gonna throw all that comp stuff into the already muddled mix. Free play as a function of profit?

[Alan Mendelson]

Rob I agree with you that free play isn't a profit until it actually wins bets and you close at the session with it.

When Caesars gives me $300 of free play (oh, I yearn for the old days when I got $2500) that $300 of free play is worthless until it wins something.

There really is an important question here:

Do you consider your advantage based on the theoretical or expected return? Or, do you consider your advantage based on your taxable wins/losses that are reported at the end of the year?

If you are basing your advantage on "expectation" you should say so. If you had an actual profitable return that should be stated as such. Then it is left up to the "reader" to decide which "return" or "advantage" they want to follow.

Frankly, if someone tells me that if they add their comps, fee play, offers, t-shirts, mugs, dinners, hotel rooms to the 99.17% game they play and they now figure they have an "expected return" of 102% that's fine with me. That is their "expected return."

Frankly, my expected return is probably much higher than 102% given all the comps and value of the rooms and show tickets I get.

But I am not going to boast about my expected return because the reality is I don't hit a royal every time I play so on my Bonus game I can't claim a 99.17% return and my actual return which includes bad luck and losses is negative.

I can separate "expected return" from "actual cash in my wallet return."

I think anyone who bases their success on their expected return should also present their actual "cash in the wallet" results.

I can make a strong case that even when I lose $3,000 playing video poker, my hotel room and meals might have been worth $2,000 so my actual loss was $1,000. But I don't do that. I don't include hotel rooms and meals and room service (that are comped) in my tally sheet. And when I look at MY "cash in the wallet" accounting I lost $3,000.

Prior to the trip I can use the "expected return" this way:

I have a bankroll of $3,000 and I will play a 99.17% game. Loss = $24.90
Value of hotel rooms 2 nights $600
Value of comped meals $500
So, $600 + $500 = $1100 - 24.90 = expected profit of $1,075.10

But after the actual trip I lost $3,000 from my wallet. Now what is the accounting?

[dannyj]

Rob I agree with you that free play isn't a profit until it actually wins bets and you close at the session with it.

When Caesars gives me $300 of free play (oh, I yearn for the old days when I got $2500) that $300 of free play is worthless until it wins something.

There really is an important question here:

Do you consider your advantage based on the theoretical or expected return? Or, do you consider your advantage based on your taxable wins/losses that are reported at the end of the year?

If you are basing your advantage on "expectation" you should say so. If you had an actual profitable return that should be stated as such. Then it is left up to the "reader" to decide which "return" or "advantage" they want to follow.

Frankly, if someone tells me that if they add their comps, fee play, offers, t-shirts, mugs, dinners, hotel rooms to the 99.17% game they play and they now figure they have an "expected return" of 102% that's fine with me. That is their "expected return."

Frankly, my expected return is probably much higher than 102% given all the comps and value of the rooms and show tickets I get.

But I am not going to boast about my expected return because the reality is I don't hit a royal every time I play so on my Bonus game I can't claim a 99.17% return and my actual return which includes bad luck and losses is negative.

I can separate "expected return" from "actual cash in my wallet return."

I think anyone who bases their success on their expected return should also present their actual "cash in the wallet" results.

I can make a strong case that even when I lose $3,000 playing video poker, my hotel room and meals might have been worth $2,000 so my actual loss was $1,000. But I don't do that. I don't include hotel rooms and meals and room service (that are comped) in my tally sheet. And when I look at MY "cash in the wallet" accounting I lost $3,000.

Prior to the trip I can use the "expected return" this way:

I have a bankroll of $3,000 and I will play a 99.17% game. Loss = $24.90
Value of hotel rooms 2 nights $600
Value of comped meals $500
So, $600 + $500 = $1100 - 24.90 = expected profit of $1,075.10

But after the actual trip I lost $3,000 from my wallet. Now what is the accounting?

We are treated fairly well at our local casino. Comped rooms, comped concert tickets, monthly dining and free play allowance, but we never count any of that towards or against our win or loss. For us we keep it simple, it is our starting bankroll versus what we came home with (or deposit on way home) that matters, and gets logged into our win/loss file.

The comps are nice and we gladly accept them, but they have no bearing on what was actually won or lost.

[RS__]

Do you consider the amount you cash out from free-play to be a win?

[dannyj]

Yes we do. Cash is king. I misspoke when i included money won from free play as not counting towards a win or loss. It still comes down to cash brought home vs. starting cash bankroll, free play wins included.

[regnis]

That seems the proper approach. I came with xx$$--I went home with YY$$. That is my profit or loss. All the other stuff is nice but of no real value and shouldn't count towards my win or loss totals.

I get comped racing forms and programs every day at the track. That is essentially $20 per day, 5 days per week, 52 weeks per year. That's $5,200.

I don't include that in my win or loss totals. It's nice to have but I look at the $$$ in my pocket only.

What I do count is a rebate on my wagering (total wagered--not losses) that I accumulate until year end. That can be anywhere from $15,000 to $30,000 and offsets any net losses for the year. You could try to say that it is like free play at the casino. But I can accumulate it all year and I don't have to bet it back. So to me--that figures in to my net at year end.

[dannyj]

That seems right. You don't have to bet it back, can become a nice windfall at end of year.
BTW, how did you do on the american pharoah upset?

[slingshot]

It's all luck. I had a tremendous day (for me). I played the "quickie" artt strategy on the $5 VP machine today and was dealt A37 of hearts, a Ione J of clubs, and a K. Instead of the A, I felt the J trumped it because the A had 3 hearts with it. Out rolled a flush for +$85 and I left. On the way out, I noticed the "Who wants to be a binionaire" (25c) was up to $28,000 ($3000 over) so I decided to play about 40 spins and hit double red 7's for $180. Going downstairs, I tried a few spins on my wife's favorite penny machine and wilds came across the whole right screen for $150! To top it off, I hit 4 A's on bp for $100 and decided I better vamoose! How do you put THAT in a strategy profile?

[JSTAT]

None of the above described is advantage play. All of it will lose. I've seen zero proof any of it works. All I see is talk and no action. Winners play and keep quiet. Losers talk shit all day.

I kept quiet about winning at blackjack until I was banned from playing in 1997. My name is in surveillance rooms throughout Nevada casinos. So I decided to TALK about my card counting experience in this YouTube video.

[Rob.Singer]

But after the actual trip I lost $3,000 from my wallet. Now what is the accounting?

Alan, here's where we separate reality from theory....real money from phantom bucks.

If the expectation of all those silly numbers GOING IN has a positive value to it, then you are what can be called the darling of the Wizard's by-line, which states that he'd rather make a "good bet and lose than make a bad bet and win" or some such similar nonsense.

But to us in the real world, the only important fact is your result, which is a loss of $3000. You & I would say that exactly like it is, while the AP's are using their feel-good justification system by proclaiming "today's losing results mean nothing in the overall scheme of things, because I was really making $47.50/hour".

When they say these dopey things to other gamblers they think they're being slick. But I wonder what their husbands or wives think about it (the very few of them that are actually married, that is).....