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Thread: How do you prove your "advantage play" and winning strategy?

  1. #21
    I'd call it a $3000 loss.

    As for marriage, I'm not that stupid. I'd rather borrow them for a while. And no, no" renting" them!

    I'm about to hit up a local place with $75 free play. I will only use it scavenging multipliers. I'll report how it ends up.

  2. #22
    Originally Posted by jbjb View Post
    I'd call it a $3000 loss.

    As for marriage, I'm not that stupid. I'd rather borrow them for a while. And no, no" renting" them!

    I'm about to hit up a local place with $75 free play. I will only use it scavenging multipliers. I'll report how it ends up.
    Update: surprisingly number of plays for a Monday. Finished off the FP rather quickly. The last play I actually needed to use fifty cents of what's on the ticket (5 play quarters $6.25 bet, $5.75 left FP). Started with $20, ended with $104.00. $84.00 profit. Ran through rest of the plays and lost a tad in the amount of $6.75. So that's how it stands as of this minute.

  3. #23
    Originally Posted by dannyj View Post
    That seems right. You don't have to bet it back, can become a nice windfall at end of year.
    BTW, how did you do on the american pharoah upset?
    No play. Too hard to bet against and really couldn't find a value play. I am never compelled to bet the big races---which helps to enjoy watching the race.

  4. #24
    Comps are worth value -- but not the value the casino assigns them. They are worth value to you.

    For example:

    If you have $300 freeplay, but you already planned to wager $300 with or without the freeplay, then the freeplay is worth $300 to you, regardless of the result. Why? Because instead of feeding three $100 bills into the machine, you are feeding a freeplay coupon, and getting the same $300 to play with.

    But if you have $300 freeplay and are just planning to run it and not play a penny of your money, then the value of the freeplay is what it returns. Of course, you can assign an "average" value to it based upon expected return, but the actual value is what it actually wins for you.

    ----

    Now what about hotel rooms, food, cruises, etc?

    You need to ask yourself, "What is this really worth to me? If I didn't have this comp, how much would I pay for it, and would I even bother with it at all for free?"

    For example, let's say you really don't like Celene Dion, but you get tickets to her show comped. It doesn't matter if the tickets are normally $200. If you wouldn't pay $20 to see her, then the tickets are almost worthless to you (unless you give them to someone else who appreciates them). So, again, you need to value it for yourself.

    Same with the cruises. If you like cruising, then the NCL cruise benefit can be valuable. If you don't like cruising and feel "obligated" to go because it's deeply discounted (it's not free, in reality), you aren't getting any value.

    But I'm going on a cruise this year which I would have otherwise WANTED to take, and which would have cost me almost $6000. I paid about $850 total, for 3 people and 2 rooms. So that's obviously a nice value for me.

    For someone like Alan, who doesn't like cruising, there's no value there at all.

    So yes, you can be an AP even with a negative expectation in the games, if the expected loss is eclipsed by the things you will gain.

    BTW, if you are "overcomped" as I am, then that's proof positive that you are actually costing the casino money, and they don't really want you there. As the old saying goes, if you're doing exactly what the casino wants, they're going to roll out the red carpet for you.
    Check out my poker forum, and weekly internet radio show at http://pokerfraudalert.com

  5. #25
    I don't understand this:

    Originally Posted by Dan Druff View Post
    BTW, if you are "overcomped" as I am, then that's proof positive that you are actually costing the casino money, and they don't really want you there.
    I think you combined thoughts into an awkward sentence. But I think I understand your point.

    I have this question: how do you know you are really over comped? I know you take advantage of a lot of things that 7 Stars automatically get but you're not getting other things such as free play and promotions because you stop playing as soon as you reach the 7 Stars tier level. Are you reaching that 7 Stars tier level with a profit?

    Only if you have an actual profit from your gaming can you possibly consider that you are "over comped."

    I wonder if you get the cold shoulder from casino hosts not because you are over comped but because you are not a big enough player. If you were getting the free play offers and the shopping sprees that the big players get WITHOUT being a big player then you might be "over comped."

    But if, as you say, you are only playing to reach 150,000 tier points and you are just taking advantage of the "core offers" that all 7 Stars get then you are not over comped -- but instead you are just not worth the time of a host's attention.

    Perhaps you should call yourself "under-hosted" or a "7 Stars Host-less who tries for the Mostest."

  6. #26
    I was posting a response, hit the wrong button, and it's gone. So I won't repeat it all.

    But I have been specifically told by MANY hosts that I am way overcomped. That's not a theory or guess. It's a fact.

    I only qualify for the comps I do because of the Seven Stars program, which runs counter to the comp system utilized by the host (ADT/AMT).

    That is "overcomped".

    Unless you're pulling some kind of shenanigans on the casino, you can tell how much value you are to them by the offers you receive. If you receive great offers, you are considered to be a walking dollar sign for them. If you receive crap, they don't really want your business.
    Check out my poker forum, and weekly internet radio show at http://pokerfraudalert.com

  7. #27
    Also, my profile on CET's computer is a bit schizophrenic.

    At Harrah's Tahoe, Harrah's New Orleans, and Harrah's Rincon, and Harrah's Laughlin, I am NOT overcomped and actually have a good ADT/AMT.

    At all other CET properties, my numbers are horrible.

    And overall, my numbers are also pretty bad.

    So hosts at my "good" properties don't quite know what to do, as they believe I will play, but they're also not supposed to comp a highly overcomped player. (They do earn commission at the local level, however, so my past at other properties doesn't affect them, provided they believe I'll put in the play.)
    Check out my poker forum, and weekly internet radio show at http://pokerfraudalert.com

  8. #28
    I wonder if "you are over comped" is a euphemistic phrase the hosts are taught to use to deny comps?

  9. #29
    Originally Posted by Alan Mendelson View Post
    I wonder if "you are over comped" is a euphemistic phrase the hosts are taught to use to deny comps?
    Very true. First thing you should learn about ANY casino employee. Never believe a word they tell you about gaming and the comp system.

  10. #30
    I played VP progressives in Reno, Sparks, Carson City and Lake Tahoe for a number of years. This was in the days of the bounceback checks. The progressives were all I played. One of the benefits of chasing royals were the bounceback checks I got from casinos where I had been in chasing a big progressive royal. I was cashing a couple of thousand dollars a month in bounceback checks. I remember one place I was stuck about $800 when someone else hit the royal. So I got up and left. I got a $200 bounceback check every month from that place for a year and a half. All I did was walk into the place, check the progressives, cash the bounceback check and leave.

  11. #31
    Originally Posted by Alan Mendelson View Post
    I wonder if "you are over comped" is a euphemistic phrase the hosts are taught to use to deny comps?
    No, I really am. Why do you doubt this? I would be shocked if they told me that I wasn't (except at the properties where I've put in most of my play).
    Check out my poker forum, and weekly internet radio show at http://pokerfraudalert.com

  12. #32
    re: "how to prove 'AP'"....it's very simple: you use math.

  13. #33
    Originally Posted by RS__ View Post
    re: "how to prove 'AP'"....it's very simple: you use math.
    Some people here think -4+-3=+6

  14. #34
    Originally Posted by singahkillah View Post
    I played VP progressives in Reno, Sparks, Carson City and Lake Tahoe for a number of years. This was in the days of the bounceback checks. The progressives were all I played. One of the benefits of chasing royals were the bounceback checks I got from casinos where I had been in chasing a big progressive royal. I was cashing a couple of thousand dollars a month in bounceback checks. I remember one place I was stuck about $800 when someone else hit the royal. So I got up and left. I got a $200 bounceback check every month from that place for a year and a half. All I did was walk into the place, check the progressives, cash the bounceback check and leave.
    I don't understand. Bounce back checks are for actual play. Are you saying they continued to send you bounce back checks in subsequent months without play?

  15. #35
    Originally Posted by Dan Druff View Post
    No, I really am. Why do you doubt this? I would be shocked if they told me that I wasn't (except at the properties where I've put in most of my play).
    There's a difference between being over comped and not entitled to comps. If your play is so tight perhaps you're not actually entitled to any of the comps you sought? So to be polite they said you were over comped.

  16. #36
    I wonder what kind of "comps" beyond the beer, that is, they hand out in Montana Maybe a free teeth-cleaning at the local dentist? How about a ticket that gets you a free look at your sticky, black lungs from smoking? Or maybe a binge-drinking weekend at Lil's!

  17. #37
    Originally Posted by Rob.Singer View Post
    I wonder what kind of "comps" beyond the beer, that is, they hand out in Montana Maybe a free teeth-cleaning at the local dentist? How about a ticket that gets you a free look at your sticky, black lungs from smoking? Or maybe a binge-drinking weekend at Lil's!
    Slob Dinger is a punk piece of shit.

  18. #38
    Originally Posted by jbjb View Post
    Some people here think -4+-3=+6
    Irrelevant. The issue is to prove you win. Actually--not theoretically.

  19. #39
    Originally Posted by Alan Mendelson View Post
    I don't understand. Bounce back checks are for actual play. Are you saying they continued to send you bounce back checks in subsequent months without play?
    Yes. Freeplay is a relatively recent phenomenon. In the old days they sent you a voucher for money. I just took them to the casino and cashed them without playing. I would only play if they had a progressive that was way up.

    My minimum number for quarter 9-6 Jacks was $2500. I played them in the Cal-Neva in Reno. These were multi-game progressives with all the games on the same meter. The meters ran at 1.5% and 2%. All of the games were bad payscales except for the 9-6 Jacks.

    Alan, contrary to what Rob Singer says, if you were to play quarter 9/6 Jacks where the royal payed $2500 or more I guarantee you will make money in the long run.

  20. #40
    Originally Posted by Alan Mendelson View Post
    There's a difference between being over comped and not entitled to comps. If your play is so tight perhaps you're not actually entitled to any of the comps you sought? So to be polite they said you were over comped.
    I don't ask for comps typically. That's not when the "overcomped" thing came up.

    Here is a good example of a conversation I had, where I'm 100% sure the host was being straight with me:

    (I was talking to a Caesars Windsor host about my then-upcoming Seven Stars Annual Trip there....)

    Me: So would I be able to be booked in a suite for this trip?

    Host: No, we do that based upon play, and unfortunately you don't qualify for it.

    Me: Not even for the Seven Stars trip?

    Host: No, we only assign those based upon play history, and you have a lot of no-play stays in the past year.

    Me: Okay, so what type of room am I getting? Can I at least have something with a view?

    Host: Yeah, I'm working on that... (sounding flustered, as typing)... The truth is that you're way overcomped, so it's not even letting me book you for anything right now. I have to get some override codes for this, and the ones I already have aren't working. Can I please call you back later today or tomorrow, and I'll have the info on your room?

    Me: That's fine, call me when you figure it out.


    Now before you say that she was probably just a great actress and was snowing me, I can tell you that she sounded 100% sincere and frustrated with the system's refusal to comp a regular hotel room for me! It's not even like she was using "overcomped" as an excuse to deny me, because she HAD to book it, as part of the Seven Stars program.

    I have run into similar at Rincon, where they keep telling me I am "overcomped" and need to override the computer because it keeps refusing to book me (especially when I ask for -- and usually get -- a suite.)

    I've heard this from so many different hosts in so many different contexts.

    It's not like I ask a host, "Hey, give me comp tickets to Elton John" and they come back with, "Sorry you're overcomped."

    I really am overcomped.

    It's not even like this is a good thing for me. I mean, yes, it shows that I'm doing a good job extracting value out of CET, but it's also a big headache for me, because hosts see "overcomped" and often don't want to help me with the most basic things that require a host's assistance.

    One thing that did bug me was the fact that playing on WSOP.com while staying at a Nevada property doesn't get you anything, and in fact you get penalized for it. I played on there A LOT while staying at Caesars, and generated a ton of rake. I wasn't even asking them to give me RCs or comps for this, but it pissed me off when they said, "You always stay here and don't play", when I did play while staying -- just online instead of live. And they promote WSOP.com all over the place, including INSIDE the hotel, where they encourage you to stay in your room and play on there (especially at the Rio). But this was yet another case of CET's departmental disconnect.
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