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Thread: My Advantage Video Poker Play

  1. #1
    I didn't bother to look over the forum posts to find it but Mickey was very loudly proclaiming that he would love to find a $5 9/6 JoB game with 1.5% cashback. I don't have that exactly, but my regular game is very volatile and close to break-even. I earn between 1.2% and 1.5% in various flavors of cashback/freeplay depending on what point multipliers are in effect the day I play, plus other comps that I value. The edge is not huge but it is available 24/7 which is nice because I can just park in front of the game and grind away.

    I have been playing the game since May and started keeping records in early August. Before I discovered this opportunity I used to play 7/5 BP recreationally and this is my first real go at AP. The wild swings are the toughest part of the game. The theoretical edge is wonderful but the swings are crazy. I only play for quarters but I have gone through $500 without hitting a single quad. I lost $2,200 in August, broke even in July, and won over $3,000 in June by hitting 3 royals (two dealt!). So far I am +$750 in September. I didn't keep great records at first but I do now, and I reckon I am ahead about $300-$600 plus comps. The negative swings are not fun and I cannot afford to lose $2k a month for several months, but the positive swings present perhaps more problems. When I won $3,000 in June I spent some money on a vacation, a 65 inch TV, etc. I do not regret these purchases, but I am prone to the "found money" mentality where I blow money on frivolous but fun things like expensive meals, etc. that I have to avoid.

    I am very Zen about the loses, understanding that big hands will necessarily be tens of thousands of hands apart and that these hands are critical to realizing my advantage. If I can become equally Zen about the winnings and understand that I will likely give back part of the win before winning more I will be a more successful gambler. We often argue about the importance of paytables, but I have played $200k coin in this year at the game. If I was playing the 99% version of the game where a flush or full house pays 1 less instead of the breakeven game, I would be $2,000 behind where I currently am. Instead of being up about $500, I would be $1500 in the hole. This is a huge difference. Likewise if I could get 1% additional cashback I would quintuple my profit. These small differences add up when we play hundreds of thousands of hands.

  2. #2
    First, Mickey says a LOT of things from the bar in Montana where he claims with a straight face to be playing "nickel advantage keno with a 10% edge". $5 machines frighten someone like that.

    The only reason you're saying you'd be $2000 worse off had you played a game paying five credits less for fh's is first because you have no stop-win or loss goals that get you out of there instead of just sitting for hours playing like a robot zombie, nor do you have any strategy that utilizes different denominations and different more volatile games. Secondly, what makes you think you can win ANYTHING on such a poor game as job? That game is only a prop for points build-up, not money. And it is sooooo boring to play for even 15 minutes.

    BTW, doing what you're doing, esp. (*I'm assuming you're playing 25c job for lack of clear information) if you're believing the math will carry you through, you will go bust because you do not have the bankroll to be playing quarters.

  3. #3
    I missed it. What is the game?

  4. #4
    I'd rather not say the game but it is along the lines of ddb in terms of variance. Rob you are right that I don't have the bankroll to play the game, but I really do enjoy playing and losing my bankroll is a risk I am willing to take considering that I have a pretty good shot at winning. I will say, though, that if I get lucky and get way ahead I have no plans on jumping up in denomination until I AM properly bankrolled. I think your criticism of ap's using jackpots to move up in stakes is probably your most useful contribution to video poker knowledge.

  5. #5
    Unfortunately if you don't use your winnings to move up you'll never hit bigger jackpots.

    Once I played $25/coin video poker and hit a full house for $1,000. I scaled back to $5 (this was 8/5 Bonus) and a couple hands later hit Quad Aces. Now $2,000 ain't bad but it might have been $10,000.

  6. #6
    Alan you make a good point. If I get to the stage in life where I am OK with losing $25-$30k playing video poker then I will be sufficiently bankrolled (less than 10% chance risk of ruin) to play at the dollar level, unfortunately I am not there today. The point I was trying to make is that winning $2,500 at quarters makes it tempting to take a shot at the $1 game but if I do I am very likely to just lose the $2500. Rob Singer has made this point before and, I think, correctly. I wish he would emphasize it more.

  7. #7
    One thing I discovered: the denomination of the game has no impact on the RNG.

  8. #8
    Originally Posted by bigfoot66 View Post
    Alan you make a good point. If I get to the stage in life where I am OK with losing $25-$30k playing video poker then I will be sufficiently bankrolled (less than 10% chance risk of ruin) to play at the dollar level, unfortunately I am not there today. The point I was trying to make is that winning $2,500 at quarters makes it tempting to take a shot at the $1 game but if I do I am very likely to just lose the $2500. Rob Singer has made this point before and, I think, correctly. I wish he would emphasize it more.
    bigfoot, I'll take a wild guess and say you are playing 10/6 Double Double Bonus. If you want to move up in stakes you really need to quit buying the toys and start investing all your winnings in cash.

    PS: What bigfoot is doing is a classic example of working theo.
    Last edited by singahkillah; 09-13-2015 at 11:19 AM.

  9. #9
    Originally Posted by singahkillah View Post
    bigfoot, I'll take a wild guess and say you are playing 10/6 Double Double Bonus. If you want to move d up in stakes you really need to quit buying the toys and start investing all your winnings in cash.

    PS: What bigfoot is doing is a classic example of working theo.
    I really think poor Mickey was trying his best here, but unfortunately a bum's best is never good enuf.

    No one should EVER attempt serious vp or any other type of gambling until 4 important goals are addressed first:

    1. Your bankroll for gambling-only is proper for what you're going after, and it forever remains separate from what you live your life with.

    2. The money you retain for living must translate into a comfortable life for you (and esp. your family if you have one).

    3. Those toys Mickey talks about--but does not have because of poor life decisions and losing at gambling--absolutely should be purchased whether you're gambling or not. Mickey drinks whatever spare change he has. If you lead a decent life you most definitely will find your rewards.

    4. Never EVER begin serious gambling unless and until you first have you future retirement secured. Again, poor Mickey has nothing to look forward to other than more syphoning off the government handouts because he's always been unemployable due to his alcoholism. Heed the word and do not be like Mike.

  10. #10
    I've got some simpler rules: never gamble seriously, always play with recreational dollars.

  11. #11
    Of course that's sound advice for the vast majority of gamblers. But there's always going to be serious players who are into it way more than the average Joe. Those are the ones I'm talking about.

  12. #12
    Rob one of your best pieces of advice is to take your profit and run. This also applies to hitting win goals and then leave the casino. How does this apply to a professional gambler who must keep playing and winning for income?

  13. #13
    Originally Posted by Alan Mendelson View Post
    Rob one of your best pieces of advice is to take your profit and run. This also applies to hitting win goals and then leave the casino. How does this apply to a professional gambler who must keep playing and winning for income?
    Good question. Suppose you lost your first session- would you leave for an hour or so then try again or what? My first attempt at the sp strategy was quite lengthy.

  14. #14
    Originally Posted by Alan Mendelson View Post
    Rob one of your best pieces of advice is to take your profit and run. This also applies to hitting win goals and then leave the casino. How does this apply to a professional gambler who must keep playing and winning for income?
    You're comparing tomatoes and potatoes. They sound the same to you but are quite different. A professional gambler does not have win goals or whatever nonsense Rob come up with. Pros play with an edge, not imaginary systems.

  15. #15
    Originally Posted by RS__ View Post
    A professional gambler does not have win goals or whatever nonsense Rob come up with. Pros play with an edge, not imaginary systems.
    They're also not robots. Lol.

    Maybe to someone who doesn't know "what the price of gas is" at the Wizard's (because they don't have a drivers' licence)? Maybe there're 205% slot machines after all (as claimed by the Wizard), but in the form of internet idiots.

  16. #16
    Originally Posted by OneHitWonder View Post
    They're also not robots. Lol.

    Maybe to someone who doesn't know "what the price of gas is" at the Wizard's (because they don't have a drivers' licence)? Maybe there're 205% slot machines after all (as claimed by the Wizard), but in the form of internet idiots.
    What's your point?

  17. #17
    And wouldn't a professional gambler use a Schedule C and be aware of how their taxes are filed?

    The point is simply this: I addressed the question to Rob.

  18. #18
    Originally Posted by RS__ View Post
    What's your point?
    You have to put in serious work to find your own "angle" to be very successful at something.

    Talking about stereotypical professional gambling can't reverse engineer yourself into one.

  19. #19
    Originally Posted by Alan Mendelson View Post
    Rob one of your best pieces of advice is to take your profit and run. This also applies to hitting win goals and then leave the casino. How does this apply to a professional gambler who must keep playing and winning for income?
    Of course the M.O. of AP's is to play and play and play, which by definition and by the design of the casinos, automatically turns them into forever-denying addicts. Ea. wk. I played for a goal then quit until the next week.I had no real need to keep on playing other sessions since my win goal was $2500 minimum. You've asked many times why I would put $57k at risk for such a relatively "small" win. There's your answer: at an avg. net profit of just over $90,000/year it was enough to meet my needs.

  20. #20
    Originally Posted by slingshot View Post
    Good question. Suppose you lost your first session- would you leave for an hour or so then try again or what? My first attempt at the sp strategy was quite lengthy.
    A big part of my strategy was to avoid greed. That's why I set it up as a trip to different locations throughout Nevada from the Phx. area each week for 10 years. Many of my sessions were short because of early hits, and each time I immediately left for home whether tired, hungry, or both. The #1 goal was to bring the profit home and put it plus my bankroll (which I always withdrew the day I left for Nv.) back into the bank, in order to maintain an exact & precise financial account tht coincided directly back to my contemporaneous log that I kept for the IRS. I certainly could have begun another session at any point in time, but when I began playing professionally it was to be all about a short weekly trip so that I could be home far more often than I was when I lived and traveled all over the world for the job I left.

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