My Advantage Video Poker Play

[RS__]

Information? At Mississippi Stud? You shouldn't have brought that up again. You should have quit while you were ahead.

Alan, you don't think HCing an MS game is any good?

[Alan Mendelson]

All the hole card tells you is what one single card you won't get.

[alpax]

The max pay out is only achievable if you start betting 3x on 3rd street. The HC does help when you know you have a pair of 6s and above within the first three cards.

Quads does not happen often, 1 in 4164 rounds
Full Houses maybe once or twice a day, 1 in 693 rounds

I assume the house will get suspicious if someone went all in 3x with an unsuited 6/8 on 3rd street rather than the 4th street on when it pairs up.

What does BPs stand for? Bonus Plays?

[alpax]

Actually it's much worse than that for video poker. With the exception of the low-variance games like Bonus Poker and JoB paying 2 for 1 for a two pair, most VP games have a win rate closer to 1 out of 8 hands when you hit a 3-of-a-kind or better (13% or so). 30% of the hands are merely high pair/2-pair pushes. This is only in reference to non wild-card games.

You are right, I did not think of the fact that the original wager is returned in BJ but not in video poker. You have to get a 2 for 1 or better to consider it a "win". Pair of high cards does make up 26% of the payout so you are right about low win rate.

[RS__]

All the hole card tells you is what one single card you won't get.

So in fact, you have never played MS!

[alpax]

That single card is part of your overall hand, so you will get it.

[Alan Mendelson]

The max pay out is only achievable if you start betting 3x on 3rd street. The HC does help when you know you have a pair of 6s and above within the first three cards.

STOP. Knowing the hole card does not tell you if you pair will hit trips, and it does not tell you if your trips will make quads. It only tells you WHAT ONE SINGLE CARD is not coming. It does not tell you what cards ARE coming.

Even in single deck blackjack knowing the hole card takes on ONE single card out of the possibilities.

Knowing a hole card cannot account for any big wins in Mississippi Stud. Knowing a hole card can explain WHY you didn't get a big win.

[Alan Mendelson]

So in fact, you have never played MS!

Not only have I played it, but my son got a $20,000 royal (table max) at Commerce Casino.

Because I've played it, I know BS when I read BS.

[Alan Mendelson]

That single card is part of your overall hand, so you will get it.

Ummm... unless I am thinking something different, the hole card is the bottom card of the deck that the dealer is holding. The hole card will never be dealt out.

If you are talking about the dealer revealing the next card to be dealt that will only help the player in the first position.

But now we have another problem. Where I played MS they had an automatic shuffler and you couldnt see any card prior to it being dealt.

My BS detector is on Red Alert.

[alpax]

I am confused too, I thought the HC referenced in this case was the 3rd Street Card and not the bottom of the disposed cards. In 3 Card Poker hole carding, it is gaining knowledge of one of dealer's three cards, thus understanding what the 3rd or 5th street card will be valuable. Maybe jbjb can answer this.

[jbjb]

http://apheat.net/2012/11/18/mississ...play-update-1/

Alan hole cards are the unexposed dealt cards. You need to get out more.

[Alan Mendelson]

If it's one of the soon to be dealt cards, again it's only one card. And frankly, I doubt you are playing MS that isn't dealt out of an automatic shuffler. Are you? If so, name the casino so I can call to verify.

Unless a dealer is helping you cheat, you cannot see the unexposed cards about to be dealt with an automatic shuffler since the procedure is for players to make their next bets before the cards are removed from the shuffler.

And even if you had knowledge of one card, how much good does it do you?

Sorry BS DETECTOR REMAINS ON RED ALERT.

[jbjb]

It helps a lot. If you don't think going from a 4.81% disadvantage to over a 104% player advantage is help, I don't know what to say. Don't believe me? That's fine and I prefer it that way. I would've thought your way ten years ago too. Not all dealers keep the cards flat as they come out of the shuffler. This is a main reason why these games are hand dealt now in a lot of areas. I'm not going to comment on the subject no longer. Next time in Vegas, watch the carnival games in every casino.

[Alan Mendelson]

Not all dealers keep the cards flat as they come out of the shuffler. This is a main reason why these games are hand dealt now in a lot of areas.

At every casino where there is a shuffler, the player bets are made BEFORE the cards come out of the shuffler.

I have never seen this game played without an automatic shuffler and if a dealer is exposing the top card or any of the three cards to you prior to the time you place your bets and the cards are dealt by hand then good for you.

I can only deal with what I see and know. I have never seen the game hand dealt.

[OneHitWonder]

"Hole carding refers to obtaining knowledge of cards that are supposed to be hidden from view in card games." https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hole_carding

That's fine and I prefer it that way.

Why come on here publicly, at all, only to conclude the obvious (were it possible)? Doesn't seem overly smart.

I'm not going to comment on the subject no longer. Next time in Vegas, watch the carnival games in every casino.

At least provide an example of one casino which hand deals it before bets are placed. Alan could call up and check it out.

Ap's go on about how they could be engineers, eg, were it not for different lifestyles, etc. Well, all I've ever seen from them online and in corner library books is crude snippets of math which are but wisps of the meaningful algebra, calculus, functions and relations, and investments, from which those were bastardized.

I like what Singer wrote about the whole story first as much as going to tell and show. Even the great poker players seem to let on only how much they won (on their own).


P.S. About the big advantages, altogether too obvious. You'd last a day or two "calling out" a specific card here and there out of the deck. Well, not even that.

[RS__]

This is hilarious.

[Alan Mendelson]

this whole thing about having knowledge of one card is meaningless.

Let's say you are holding two royal cards, and the next card is a 6 does that mean you abandon your hand in Mississippi Stud? NO. If your two royal cards are spades and the 6 is also a spade you still have a flush draw. Even if the 6 is no good, one of the next cards might pair one of your cards for a paying hand.

Frankly, much of the decision process in MS is deciding whether or not to play your two initial cards. After your two initial cards you just hope your hand gets better and better.

Now, with all of that said my BS DETECTOR is now flashing a red alert. A couple of questions:

1. Doesnt Shuffle Master license and own Mississippi Stud and wouldn't Shuffle Master insist that as part of the game layout that its own automatic card shufflers are used?
2. The game's rules are that two cards are dealt to each player and then three community cards are dealt FACE DOWN on the table. This means there is NO hole card to be flashed. Maybe you got a glimpse of the cards going face down on the table, but this is a long shot.
3. Name the casino that plays this game differently. I have a phone call to make.

[OneHitWonder]

This is hilarious.

What's really hilarious is 200 AP wannabes at the "Wiz's (online) house" spending another five years to try to redo all the old threads there. Useless and useless-er. Pathetic even. OMG.

[RS__]

Alan, I haven't played or practiced MS HC strategy in a while, but I'm pretty sure you fold AK6 off suit, but you 1-bet AK6 suited.


But Alan, you're right. You can sometimes get a glimpse, but for the most part you're not gonna get a glimpse. If anyone knows otherwise, I'd advise you not telling Alan.

[Alan Mendelson]

Alan, I haven't played or practiced MS HC strategy in a while,

Since you haven't played in a while either, isn't your BS ALERT glowing red also? It should be.

While players can communicate what cards they have -- and even if they get a glimpse of the community cards that are dealt face down on the table -- that information is not going to help them hit quads or any big hands. Yes, it might help them fold, for example, when another player is holding the Ks and Qs you need for your As and Js. But that info is not going to help you win.

I would also like to know what casino does not use an automatic shuffler in this game and what casino might have a dealer hand shuffle and hand deal this game? And don't tell me it's an "AP secret." That's bullshit.