A hand shuffle, burn and turn game is the worst. ASMs are preferred. Again Alan, you need to learn to scout dealers if this is the way anyone wishes to play. Now you're a craps and vp player so I'd expect you to not understand anything about this. And there is nothing wrong with that either. And this goes for any poker based table game. These are not any secrets.
I think Alan just wants to know at least one casino in which this game is hand dealt even if you do not play there since hand shuffles are as bad as you say it is. He probably needs to see it for himself.
Originally Posted by jbjb
Let me be clear, jbjb, my understanding of the game Mississippi Stud which you have said led to your massive wins which led to your TAX PAYMENT (not taxable income but a tax payment) of $129,000 in one year, can not involve showing a hole card in the dealer's hand or has a dealer shuffling. My understanding -- and you can check the WOV site to confirm -- is that each player is dealt two cards which come from an automatic card shuffler and the dealer puts out three community cards also from an automatic card shuffler.Originally Posted by alpax
Where is this game played with a dealer shuffling and dealing the cards by hand which allows you and your cohorts to see the so-called "hole card"?
It seems to me that to support your claim of some exceptional wins getting quads with max bets because you observed a "hole card" you would have to be playing in a casino where an automatic shuffler is not used. And if you were able to see a card from the three laid out by the dealer from an automatic shuffler just how many times did this happen?
Even if you were able to see a card before it was revealed to the table by the dealer how would it cause your pair to become trips or then quads? The knowledge of a card yet to be revealed cannot be used to change the value of the card -- and it can only be used to keep you from making an additional bet.
So, your story is full of holes. Here's your chance to fill the holes. Start by naming one casino where an automatic shuffler is not used. From an Internet search I see that both Bally's and Shufflemaster have licensed the game and both have their own automatic shuffler.
I want to call the casino that shuffles and deals this game by hand just to see if I can confirm that much.
For the rest of your claims? As I said knowing what card is coming next will not help you complete your set or quads or straight or flush, but it will help you only to not bet on a losing draw. And that pretty much kills the theory written about in that article you posted the link to.
I believe you are confusing yourself.
jbjb would rather play at tables where automatic shufflers are used (Eliot Jacobson's website describes improper positioning of these), the quote you posted from him/her stated that hand shuffling is the worst.
There is credibility of being able to see the 5th street card as a HC since you have to make three bets to get to that card revealed. It helps whether to chase a flush or a straight, or if you know you have a pair of sixes or better, you could go full 3x on an ugly hand like 3/6 unsuited, it will be a bonus if another 3 or 6 appears on 3rd and/or 4th street.
Why mess with these guys Alan. They've been making it up since they've arrived. They're nothing more than theorists and armchair AP's who get caught in the BS pool more often than the collection of mislead atheists on WoV cry foul when Sundays are near. And did you ever hear any gambler getting non-W2G winnings on table games claim he uses the "honor system" when doing taxes?
PHONY ALERT! again....
Alan is absolutely right. We're all phonies. My friends who are currently crushing these games are simply winning because they're getting lucky! It has nothing to do with the fact they're getting a 50%+ edge.
If I setup a game where I flipped a fair coin, heads I pay Alan $2 and tails I take $1 from Alan.....I bet he'd convince himself [and his lackies] there is NO ADVANTAGE in his favor for this game, because after all -- getting paid out extra doesn't increase his chances of the coin landing on heads. No math in the world will convince Alan and his friends of how gambling works. Alan's logic dictates all.
I haven't been playing those types of games because I've been focusing on machine-play. Plus it requires a whole hell of a lot of scouting, driving, waiting, etc. and coordination [within a network]....and I don't know any APs in my area who are hole-card players.Originally Posted by Alan
Alan, no one's going to tell you which casino[s] use shufflers or don't use shufflers, or which casinos/dealers have hole-card opportunities, especially after your comment saying something like, "I'll have a few phone calls to make." Nobody likes snitches. You know what they say about snitches, right?
Lol. It can't be worse than 5, maybe 6 guys here on Alan's forum, can it? Every thread here [there's like 3 threads going on at a time, max] turns into the same debate, where Alan & co scream to the rooftops "AP isn't possible" while 100% ignoring math. Look at Alan's stance here...even though HCers are getting 50%+ edges in this game [can be up to like 280% or something, depending on which card is seen]....Alan's point is this: "Seeing one card can't really help you that much" while ignoring the fact the player is getting a monster edge.Originally Posted by OneHitWonder
Three things.
1 . Do you realize how rare it is to get quads or better in MS? It's nothing like video poker where you get redraws. How often are you dealt quads in VP? That's the equivalent of getting quads in MS.
2. When math guys are losing an argument they always start flipping coins. Okay I'm being sarcastic.
3. I'd really like to know if Shuffle Master would permit the operation of its Mississippi Stud game without an automatic shuffler? So that will be my first phone call.
In reality, Alan and Rob are the only posters who don't buy into "AP" play as a method to beat casinos. Everyone else accepts the idea. I think where some of the newer posters run into cynicism is when what they say sounds good theoretically, but people who know the real world understand the execution would be really, really difficult. Alan and Rob, whatever you think of their math, know the real world of gambling and have decades of experience in it.Originally Posted by RS__
For example, I'm only knowledgeable regarding sports gambling. Some of the opportunities described as obvious advantages are, in reality, very rare and hard to execute and have additional not-easy requirements. At WoV, they were presented as easy, daily opportunities -- routine profit chances. Similarly with blackjack -- people report as if "sure, it can be done profitably," but Ferguson, Flowers, and others have actually testified that their methods for counting cards are probably not of any use in 2015.
The basic issue is that many of the AP champions are referring to "friends" who "are killing it." Not first person, just third person reporting. Alan's an investigative journalist -- of course he'll look askance at these kinds of unverifiable stories.
Kids discussing math is one thing, and being groupies to the very, very few who they believe execute profitable gambling for serious money is understandable. But for most of the posters, that's all it is, and that amounts to third person, anonymous ramblings about theoretical opportunities.
Last edited by redietz; 09-16-2015 at 03:09 AM.
I believe some MS games are dealt by hand, but have a shuffling machine which are shuffling the other deck of cards. After a round, the just-used cards are shuffled in the machine and a fresh pack comes out. Deck is cut in half, then dealt by hand.
The advantage does not solely come from hitting quads. It comes from ALL hands. Imagine playing VP where you can see the next card to be dealt. There is already a version of this (called "sneak peak" or something, but you gotta pay an extra coin or two per hand for the feature). You would gain a huge advantage, even if you aren't getting RF's a whole lot more frequently.
Redeitz, I partially agree. Rob and Alan pretend like they have a lot of knowledge and many years of gambling experience. Well, perhaps they have many years of gambling experience. Alan said earlier (in this thread) he's only seen MS dealt ONE way. There are at least 4 ways to deal the game, off the top of my head. I've seen TCP dealt 5 different ways. His experience is limited because he hasn't been looking at all the different things others and I are looking at them. He sees an MS game and either keeps walking or sits down and plays. He doesn't determine how the game is dealt nor takes any note of it (since he really has no reason to). I doubt he knows what kind of dealer rotations different casinos use, which dealers are on which shift and if they are part-time or full-time and their days off.
In another thread Alan said he's only seen casinos to offer 0.1% Cash-Back on coin-in for VP (or maybe 0.1% max). Sure he's done a lot of gambling....but he's never seen anything higher than 0.1%?? Since casinos offer 0.1%, 0.2%, 0.25%, 0.3%, 0.33%, as well as Caesar's which is like 0.05% to 0.08% (or something like that).
There've been other tidbits in Alan's posts that show he doesn't understand as much about gambling as he thinks he does. Another example is he didn't know what "hole-carding" is/was......yet he's trying to discuss it like he knows what it is? Come on.
I think this is the first time I've ever written about "friends" who are "killing it". Everything else I've written on here is from first-hand experience.Originally Posted by redietz
It's not third-person reporting that Alan has an issue with -- it's everything AP related. He simply refuses to acknowledge AP is possible and happening today. Someone with as much "experience" as Alan shouldn't have a hard time figuring out AP is alive and well. Or perhaps he is like Rob -- tried the "AP thing" out, figured out they wouldn't be making $$$$ every session, probably ran bad or didn't know wtf he was doing, called it quits and said it's not possible.
Stop. I think there can be advantage play but is it fair and available to everyone or does it come from bending rules or cheating or from picking up on someone else's error? Some examples of advantage play:
1. Dice sliding -- illegal
2. Blackjack card counting -- legal
3. Hole carding -- taking advantage of dealer error
4. Playing abandoned multipliers -- taking advantage of player errors
Of those four only ONE is a true advantage play -- card counting. The rest take advantage of some flaw including breaking the law.
And when it comes to card counting and your hole carding what casino would allow you or the dealer to continue if they knew what was going on?
My point is all of your so called advantage plays are nothing more than short term violations of player and casino procedures or rules. You're either stealing from the casino or stealing from another player.
Sports betting is different as that can be based on true knowledge.
Hole carding is BS. Dealers are watched more closely than strippers and would never be allowed to deal more than a few errant hands before being stopped. You might find one making a mistake here and there but the eye-in-the-sky would see the error and correct it faster than any inflated-ego AP could utilize such a thing. It would never last long enuf to be an ongoing advantage to any player anywhere.
Who makes up such stuff?
That's actually a reasonable argument. Maybe in a non-US casino, or in a US casino for nominal amounts.Originally Posted by Rob.Singer
Well then, we have different definitions of what an AP is. Everyone else uses a definition like, "Gaining a legal advantage in a casino" while your definition is basically "Someone who gains a legal advantage while not taking advantage of casino/player errors."Originally Posted by Alan Mendelson
Wouldn't dealing out multiple hands without shuffling be a "casino error" then, by allowing the possibility for a player to count cards? So card counting really isn't an "advantage play" to you, it's just taking advantage of a casino error.
Playing live table poker isn't really advantage play to you, either, since you're just taking advantage of player errors since they aren't playing "properly".
And of course, the casino is making an error when they have lines and bets open at the sports book that have a player advantage.
I can't think of a single (legal) advantage play where it's not taking advantage of some type of "casino/player error".
Alan doesn't believe any of this is legal advantage play but thinks it's quite alright to past-post (bet after the outcome is known) which is 100% illegal and cheating. Absolutely pathetic!! Alan must be a Richard Marcus student.Originally Posted by RS__
Live poker is a skilled game just like sports betting is.
If you are referring to craps dealers allowing missed bets that is always done with the casino's permission.
Card counting is the only true advantage play because it takes advantage of the casino's own procedures. It is legal too. But just find a casino that will want to do business with you.
At least the APs here aren't adding in the value of taking soap home from the hotel rooms. By the way, I do that.
I have a true AP attitude. I take the coffee. And last time I stayed in a hotel, someone else picked up the tab, but I took towels anyway.Originally Posted by Alan Mendelson
About the only thing I can add to this discussion is Advantage Players depend on the ignorance of the public to make a living. Do I take advantage of casino errors? Like a video poker payscale that is so strong it offers the player a 13% advantage. Believe it or not I did find a game like like. It was a joker game with a very oddball payscale. Sure I take advantage of these casino errors. So someone is saying I'm not an AP because I'm just taking advantage of a casino error? Here's the thing. The play is sitting there for all the general public to peruse. The general public would love to play such a game if they knew it was that strong. But the reason I'm playing it and not them is they don't have the skills to figure out it's an advantage. The game just sat there without getting much action from the general public. Then I came along and recognized the game as a possible advantage. Because it is such an oddball game it can't be fully analyzed by any software on the market. I had to calculate the strategy and analyze the game mathematically to determine it was an advantage play. This is something the general public had the opportunity to do. But I'm the only person who has ever seen the game that had the skills to analyze it and determine it was a huge advantage. Thats what AP is all about.
Last edited by singahkillah; 09-16-2015 at 12:04 PM.
There is nothing wrong with what you described. The casino had an open game on the floor for everyone to see. That's very different from an inept dealer flashing a hole card to a player in seat #1 or seat #6. Frankly I wonder if intentionally looking at that flashed hole card might be considered cheating by the NGC? I know it would be cheating if the dealer flashed the hole card so the players could see.Originally Posted by singahkillah
I am skeptical about this whole thing because of several claims made:
1. Paying taxes of $129,000 from casino wins which would require net-net profits of $300,000 or more. Gosh, even Rob Singer never made that much in a year! LOL
2. Claims of many big wins at Mississippi Stud which quite frankly does not deliver so many big winners.
3. Claims that a dealer was flashing hole cards when that is not normal and then...
4. The game is set up for automatic shufflers which limit the exposure of cards when placed on the table.
There are too many questions. So far there are no answers to the questions-- only attacks against me, and one offer for another coin flipping question.
I've asked for the name of the casino that does not use an automatic shuffler -- so what is it?
Are you sure you paid $129,000 in TAXES and just didn't have $129,000 of taxable profits?
Will you concede that looking at hole cards is taking advantage of a casino/dealer error and is a form of cheating since the information is not available to everyone?
singahkillah your information was available to everyone. You made the effort to examine the information and that was a bonafide advantage play for you.
Perhaps, it wasn't a casino error, but another promotion? Anyway, companies aren't legally liable for honest mistakes (of no real consequence) in pricing.Originally Posted by Alan Mendelson
Would you like it if you had to fulfill many orders which you clearly mispriced online?
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