Getting convinced that Bob Dancer doesn't know much about modern CET

[Alan Mendelson]

If anyone cares more than half of that $90k was spent on non gambling including taxes to the IRS and the California FTB and to clear up the bills for my divorce.

I also prepaid my health insurance for 2016.

I used the money just as a windfall should be used.

I don't need any Rob Singer Strategy to do it either.

[Rob.Singer]

One point here is that I DO care, and no one else does. Thus, the input, harsh and bold as it may seem.

My opinion on you not playing any more this year is based on your propensity to look at what you just won, then chop it down as far as possible so that you can do two things: play more, then lose up to the point that you can still claim some kind of profit--and success--off of a big win. I don't like it at all so I say it.

When I win big it all goes home with me. Every time. And it is EXACTLY what the casinos don't want or expect me to do. Just like the very misguided policies of players seeing any kind of positives out of using huge casino tools like using hosts, casino lines of credit, or casino ATM's. The only way any player can experience any type of consistent, year-to-year success against the casinos is by adopting a strict policy of doing exactly the opposite of what you know they want and expect you to do. There is no wiggle room or room for excuses on this. You either control what you're doing in the casinos or they will seriously control you. Think about this after that next big hit if you just arrived on scene. Can you just get up, pack your things and leave? Should you....or should you listen to the addictive pull of the casino and just stay on, risking some or all of the win? Think about it.

[Dan Druff]

Rob, aside from your needless needling of Alan, I agree with most of what you have to say in this thread. When you hit a big jackpot, it is your money. At that point, anything you lose back is the same as losing money before hitting the jackpot, even if it doesn't feel that way.

$10k lost before winning $100k is the same as $10k lost after winning $100k, unless you couldn't afford to lose $10k in the first place (which isn't the case for Alan).

However, I am still questioning why you always put down APs and Seven Stars bonus whores.

This is what you just wrote:

The only way any player can experience any type of consistent, year-to-year success against the casinos is by adopting a strict policy of doing exactly the opposite of what you know they want and expect you to do. There is no wiggle room or room for excuses on this. You either control what you're doing in the casinos or they will seriously control you.

I AGREE!!!

And that's what APs do. They do exactly what the casinos DON'T want them to do, in order to consistently extract value out of the casino.

Now, I admit there are pseudo-APs who make all kinds of excuses for their losses ("variance", "I made it back in comps", "it was still positive expectation") to cover for the fact that they really don't know what they're doing.

But legitimate APs are the bane of the casino industry's existence, and casinos have been fighting to thwart them for decades.

You should praise legit APs, not deride them.

[Alan Mendelson]

Rob, please do not care about me so much.

The first thing I did after getting my check and paying off my marker was call my son to come join me in Vegas with the promise that I would give him money to play with. How much is that worth? Certainly more than the $3,000 he got and it was even worth more than the $26,000 he won when he hit a royal that same night.

Some of us actually like to take our winnings to play more. Sometimes we win more and sometimes we lose. But we do something you can't do: we enjoy ourselves. You are a miserable SOB who still can't forget that being an AP drove you into bankruptcy. I wonder if you had been a recreational player instead of trying to beat the casinos you would have enjoyed life more?

And leave Chimp alone. She's a darling lady and you would thank your lucky stars if she ever gave you the time of day.

[Rob.Singer]

Rob, aside from your needless needling of Alan, I agree with most of what you have to say in this thread. When you hit a big jackpot, it is your money. At that point, anything you lose back is the same as losing money before hitting the jackpot, even if it doesn't feel that way.

$10k lost before winning $100k is the same as $10k lost after winning $100k, unless you couldn't afford to lose $10k in the first place (which isn't the case for Alan).

However, I am still questioning why you always put down APs and Seven Stars bonus whores.

This is what you just wrote:



I AGREE!!!

And that's what APs do. They do exactly what the casinos DON'T want them to do, in order to consistently extract value out of the casino.

Now, I admit there are pseudo-APs who make all kinds of excuses for their losses ("variance", "I made it back in comps", "it was still positive expectation") to cover for the fact that they really don't know what they're doing.

But legitimate APs are the bane of the casino industry's existence, and casinos have been fighting to thwart them for decades.

You should praise legit APs, not deride them.

The one point you missed is, based solely on his own postings, Alan will not lose more than his regular $2500 draw on any one trip. I know he recently posted it was $5000 which I asked for clarification on 3 times, so whether the $2500 or even the $5k is believable we will never know unless he chooses to explain that. So if you take either figure, then no, Alan really cannot stomach a $10k loss without a big hit first. And that's when his justification system fires up.

The issue I have with AP play is they almost always play right thru any big winners, because they have no goals, rhyme or reason other than to chase a mythical theoretical end-of-lifetime edge of some sort. That's of course a very foolish approach compared to what I very successfully have done the past 15 years. But if they enjoy it, what I opine based on my experience as an AP shouldn't matter. But the wise will indeed listen.

Alan's not being needled by me. I simply respond to what he feels he needs to say here. He'll always tell you that I never discuss anything we communicate elsewhere.

[Rob.Singer]

Rob, please do not care about me so much.

The first thing I did after getting my check and paying off my marker was call my son to come join me in Vegas with the promise that I would give him money to play with. How much is that worth? Certainly more than the $3,000 he got and it was even worth more than the $26,000 he won when he hit a royal that same night.

Some of us actually like to take our winnings to play more. Sometimes we win more and sometimes we lose. But we do something you can't do: we enjoy ourselves. You are a miserable SOB who still can't forget that being an AP drove you into bankruptcy. I wonder if you had been a recreational player instead of trying to beat the casinos you would have enjoyed life more?

And leave Chimp alone. She's a darling lady and you would thank your lucky stars if she ever gave you the time of day.

Something you will forever remain blind to: a lengthy marriage doesn't certify anything, but if I were generally angry, mean, or whatever you claim might be "wrong" with me, does it make sense that a strong woman who worked as a professional engineer for 33 years at the same company would stay with such a being? (Or...and excuse me for smirking while typing this....would that more likely be the case with a 3-time loser ?)

You see why I'm having fun here?

[Alan Mendelson]

The one point you missed is, based solely on his own postings, Alan will not lose more than his regular $2500 draw on any one trip. I know he recently posted it was $5000 which I asked for clarification on 3 times, so whether the $2500 or even the $5k is believable we will never know unless he chooses to explain that. So if you take either figure, then no, Alan really cannot stomach a $10k loss without a big hit first. And that's when his justification system fires up.

The issue I have with AP play is they almost always play right thru any big winners, because they have no goals, rhyme or reason other than to chase a mythical theoretical end-of-lifetime edge of some sort. That's of course a very foolish approach compared to what I very successfully have done the past 15 years. But if they enjoy it, what I opine based on my experience as an AP shouldn't matter. But the wise will indeed listen.

Alan's not being needled by me. I simply respond to what he feels he needs to say here. He'll always tell you that I never discuss anything we communicate elsewhere.

Rob, that $2500 was a daily draw for trips to Vegas. For daily trips to Rincon, when I used to make them, the daily limit was $1500.

Rob does it really bother you this much that I hit a $100K royal with only $1,000 in the machine, then came home with a check for $90,000 of which more than half was spent on non-gaming and I still have a lot of money sitting in my checking account? Gee whiz. Give it a rest. Deal with the fact that someone besides the great Rob Singer got lucky -- and I didn't have to break up three queens to score my royal... I only had to draw one card which was a no brainer hold.

You see why I'm having fun here?

You're not having fun here. You are growing a new crop of enemies.

[RS__]

I've said it a million times....Rob does nothing good for your forum, Alan.

[Rob.Singer]

Rob, that $2500 was a daily draw for trips to Vegas. For daily trips to Rincon, when I used to make them, the daily limit was $1500.

Rob does it really bother you this much that I hit a $100K royal with only $1,000 in the machine, then came home with a check for $90,000 of which more than half was spent on non-gaming and I still have a lot of money sitting in my checking account? Gee whiz. Give it a rest. Deal with the fact that someone besides the great Rob Singer got lucky -- and I didn't have to break up three queens to score my royal... I only had to draw one card which was a no brainer hold.



You're not having fun here. You are growing a new crop of enemies.

$2500 DAILY. New info every day! So if I understand this right, as soon as you lose $2500 the 1st day of a LV trip, you call it a night, leaving all that juicy draw money in the cashier's register. No problem whatsoever waiting another 12 hours for some fresh cash to put into action. Got it!

That royal was the result of LUCK? What? You held four royal cards, correct? Then hitting the royal was the result of SKILL! Ask the AP's--they'll help you see this. And it was, per your own words, only a flush you were going for because you did not read the values of the 4 cards you held--only the SUIT. No problem there either. Going for the simple flush was also the optimal play. Skill any way you look at it. So all that wishy washy stuff about the great Rob Singer and this and that is irrelevant, esp. when you have such control over what you do. And I actually hope you do it again, because it is inconceivable that you will stay away from the $25 or maybe even the $100 poker machines between now and year's end. I'm rooting for you since you can't stay away.

I'll be sure to discuss how a new crop of anonymous people on the Internet might be new enemies of mine because I opine boldly, with my wife. Hey, I may even talk it over with my doggie!

[jbjb]

Eh, no more lucky than drawing any of the other 46 remaining cards. But skill, no.

[Rob.Singer]

Then we've been misled by every AP gaming expert/writer who's ever come down the pike. 95% skill/5% luck. And most say there is no such thing as luck. One hand is no different than 4,500,000 hands. Either you play the grind-it-out game optimally with skill or you don't.

[Alan Mendelson]

In my case of being dealt four to the royal, how much skill was needed? I didn't even have a high pair to break up. There were four hearts and if I recall the card I dropped was either a 2 or 3 of clubs. Skill needed to make the draw was slightly higher than playing Go-Fish in kindergarten. I would say hitting my royal was all luck.

[jbjb]

Skill is holding KK55 in DDB while the unskilled hold KK.

[slingshot]

$2500 DAILY. New info every day! So if I understand this right, as soon as you lose $2500 the 1st day of a LV trip, you call it a night, leaving all that juicy draw money in the cashier's register. No problem whatsoever waiting another 12 hours for some fresh cash to put into action. Got it!

That royal was the result of LUCK? What? You held four royal cards, correct? Then hitting the royal was the result of SKILL! Ask the AP's--they'll help you see this. And it was, per your own words, only a flush you were going for because you did not read the values of the 4 cards you held--only the SUIT. No problem there either. Going for the simple flush was also the optimal play. Skill any way you look at it. So all that wishy washy stuff about the great Rob Singer and this and that is irrelevant, esp. when you have such control over what you do. And I actually hope you do it again, because it is inconceivable that you will stay away from the $25 or maybe even the $100 poker machines between now and year's end. I'm rooting for you since you can't stay away.

I'll be sure to discuss how a new crop of anonymous people on the Internet might be new enemies of mine because I opine boldly, with my wife. Hey, I may even talk it over with my doggie!

My little one wagged his tail and said you were too ruff on folks!��

[arcimede$]

Singer continues to prove above all else that he is mathematically illiterate. Pretty much says it all. You might as well base your playing on Tarot cards as listen to his nonsensical advice. There's a reason he's a laughing stock among those who actually understand math.

[Rob.Singer]

And I also understand life arci. How'd yours turn out? Relegated to loneliness and now nearly living at a Mn. Indian casino in a poker machine rut? I wonder what formula was used to determine that one....

[slingshot]

Skill is holding KK55 in DDB while the unskilled hold KK.

Ouch! Should I give back my 4 K's? I didn't realize......

[jbjb]

Ouch! Should I give back my 4 K's? I didn't realize......

And that's why you NEED a day job...

[Rob.Singer]

The only games worth holding KK55 aside from JoB and BP is 10/7DB & 10/6DDBP (and in some SDBP circumstances). If you look at TODAY'S play as some sort of lifelong theoretical obfuscation, then holding that hand when the FH pays 9 or less would make twisted sense. But if you play for a win goal and have the very unusual ability to just get up and leave after hitting or surpassing it, then holding just the K's is the far superior play--and something only a strong vp player would do.

This is yet another fine example of doing exactly what the casinos want and expect players to do. They know players who think they're smarter than the casinos will make the higher EV two pr. hold every time. But the casino is not purposely blind to the fact that the math us on their side 24 hours a day. So they not only beckon these so-called "AP's" to play along with all their lucrative and well-advertised promotions--they ENCOURAGE them to bring as much cash as possible every single time.

Advantage casinos. Throughout time.

[Dan Druff]

But they don't encourage the APs to come, Rob.

Offers for APs are very low nowadays (or often nonexistent), unless there is some mistake and the AP's theoretical is being grossly overrated.

The truth is that APs are not worth the resources expended upon them, even if the casino has a 0.46% mathematical edge on them, or whatever.