"Odds of getting two royal flushes in one day?"

[Alan Mendelson]

A viewer sent me this question: "what are the odds of getting two royal flushes in one day?" I couldn't answer it. I did think of two reasons why I couldn't come up with the chance of getting two royals in one day:

Reason #1: How many hands are being played? Since the chance of getting a royal flush is about 1 out of about 40,000 to 48,000 (depending on the game) I guess it depends on how many games are being played.

Reason #2: Are you playing to maximize your chance of hitting a royal? For example, do you only hold cards that could possibly lead to a royal, while sacrificing other winning hands? Example (and this is extreme): Dealt A5555, dropping the quad fives and holding only the ace because only the ace can give you a royal. (Wow, is that extreme!)

I once was dealt a royal flush on a 50-play machine. It was nickels at Mandalay Bay, and the 50 simultaneous royals paid ten grand. Nice hit.

I once drew two royals about eleven hours apart, but one was at around 11-PM on Friday night and the other was at 8 the next morning-- Saturday so I count that as two royals on two days.

But I met a player who told me he hit two royal about an hour apart on a bar top video poker machine at Rincon.

And I know of a lady at Rincon who hit two $5 progressives about two hours apart on the same machine at Rincon.

And I know of another lady at Rincon who hit the $1 progressive twice in about an hour at Rincon.

So, it is possible because it's happened.

Is there an answer to the question? If so, what is it?

[arcimede$]

Pretty good analysis. It all has to do with the number of opportunities a person gets. Both strategy and number of hands are relevant with the number of hands being the biggest factor.

For example, playing 100-play and you should get 4-RF about every 2765 dealt hands. The average number of RF would be two on the draw. Of course, one could expect to hit several more RFs holding fewer cards since that number of hands would produce about 7 RFs on average.

It's one way to stop a RF drought in a short time.

[redietz]

I actually got three in one day on single play machines. I know -- hard to believe, and the story is strange and funny. Basically, I'm an idiot. To be continued....

[Vegas Vic]

The closest I've hit royals is 3 days apart...but doing it 3 times (2008 on a cruise ship, 2009 Caesars Windsor, 2010 Caesars Windsor/MGM Detroit).

[arcimede$]

My wife hit 3 in one day. The most I've hit is two and I've done that several times. The closest was about 5 minutes on 3-play and 20 minutes on single line.

[Rob.Singer]

My wife hit 3 in one day. The most I've hit is two and I've done that several times. The closest was about 5 minutes on 3-play and 20 minutes on single line.

Now that's what I like to see--lots of royals by the family that plays together. Congratulations! Three in one day must rock! I've also experienced that, just as redietz has--all on single play machines. A 50-center while on a drive back from vacationing in Oregon at the Atlantis in Reno; then $10 & $2 at the old Ramada Express in Laughlin on the final drive home.

So, has she sit any lately? I have. Just yesterday I was dealt the KhQh and it filled in on a $2 TBP+ machine at the Edgewater. Couldn't have played 30 minutes then got up and left. I know that killed my chance of getting a 2nd or even a 3rd in the same day again, but I thought I'd keep the cash to cover fuel for the next 2 months.

[redietz]

Rest of the story:

I was sitting in the Palms, waiting for the sports book to open. There was some promo, if you played 15 minutes or something, you got some silly prize for swiping card, so I plopped down at FPDW and started putting in a quarter at a time. In five minutes, I hit a royal, for the minimum. The woman sitting next to me says, "I wouldn't even want to have hit that. It would make me feel bad." Well, she got up and left, and I decided it was all good, and I still had five or six minutes to kill. I refused to let it put me in a bad mood, so I played max coins and -- miracle of miracles -- hit anothe royal less than 20 hands later!

Aw, but the story isn't finished. I made my sports bets, went to Palace Station to turn in my contest plays, and noticed that the Jumbo Jackpot was near auto-cashing point (I think 100k). At the time, if your card was in the machine when it hit, you got $50. So I put my card in a FPDW machine and started playing (I know, this is embarrassing to say) a quarter at a time. Five minutes later-- bingo! Another Royal!! For the minimum.

Complete idiocy -- I do not even have the words for it.

[Rob.Singer]

You know what they say: If you were playing 5 credits the RNG would probably have been stopped shuffling at different points in time, and those 2 royals you hit would have been just some other regular hands.

[Alan Mendelson]

You know what they say: If you were playing 5 credits the RNG would probably have been stopped shuffling at different points in time, and those 2 royals you hit would have been just some other regular hands.

That's pretty much correct. The idea is that if he had taken the time to press the "coin in" button one extra time, or even hesitated a fraction of a second, the same cards would not have been dealt or drawn. Unfortunately we can't time the RNG.

I've talked about this before when I was at Caesars and a woman hit the three Wheel of Fortune symbols on the 25-cent progressive but because she had only one quarter played and not three her win was ten grand and not two million. She was crying hysterically and didn't want to listen to those around her who tried to console her saying that if she had taken the extra few seconds to insert another dollar bill she wouldn't have hit the combination that gave her ten thousand.

The same thing applies to our friend redietz-- had he taken extra time to play more coins or to sneeze or to gaze at a cute cocktail waitress he could have missed those royals as well.

Just remember that the next time a cute cocktail waitress goes by!

And that's why I have a habit of giving an extra tip to a cocktail waitress who delivers my drink and then I hit a jackpot. Had the drink not been delivered at that moment I would not have hit the jackpot. Of course Rob you don't tip so you wouldn't understand the thought of "good karma" coming back to you later. (LOL)

Now, on the flip side of all this are the many times I've been dealt four to the royal and am left wondering if I had said a shorter prayer before hitting the draw button would I have gotten the royal??

[arcimede$]

Many years ago I was playing at the Rio and had a waitress stop by and I ordered a drink. I turned around and pressed deal and hit a RF on the next hand. I gave her a very nice tip when she returned with the drink although I think she was a little confused and didn't understand why.

[Alan Mendelson]

On my last night out: dealt four to the royal in clubs, needed the jack, missed.

Very next hand, dealt four to the royal in spades, need the jack again, missed.

It's enough to make you paranoid.

[Vegas Vic]

The closest I've hit royals is 3 days apart...but doing it 3 times (2008 on a cruise ship, 2009 Caesars Windsor, 2010 Caesars Windsor/MGM Detroit).

Need to amend this to now be 4 times I've hit 2 royals in 3 days: 2011 in Las Vegas (O'Sheas/Flamingo)

[Rob.Singer]

I was watching a game while playing 25c vp at a bar here in Pahrump 3 weeks ago, and they had a promotion for any hand that ended with four-to-the-royal. The promo was a free spin of some electronic wheel with prizes from $10 to $1000. In one hour I spun the thing 7 times, and for $105 total. (Notice also how all the winners just happened to be of the small variety).

That would never happen if you dealt/shuffled yourself hands at home. Never. Yet we have people who'll go to their grave pretending that the machines are totally random, and that casinos "caught" with non-totally random machines would be boarded up, shut down, and their executives/owners fined & jailed. Some day maybe the vp community will wise up. So Alan, I think you have good reason to be paranoid.