Quit While You're Ahead... Revisited

[Alan Mendelson]

In our Big Casino Wins and Jackpots thread Rob wrote this, which I think should be discussed separately:

Of course we all know that vp players are ahead at some point in their visit on the majority of those visits. That's what the catalyst was for me as I developed and played my goal-oriented strategy. Critics have and will blindly say "b-b-b-but, no one knows when they're ahead at their highest point, and there's the possibility of getting ahead even further". Still other misguided souls claim how "vp play is all one lifelong event, so you might as well smile as the math snatches the profits right out of your pocket because it knows if you're winning more than you should".

VP players get so confused by simplicity, and for some reason many of then can't talk about it without injecting meaningless theory or complicating one of the easiest tasks they'll ever ckoose to do in life. Whining about "no one knows when you're at your highest win point" and other irrelevant things is only done due to wanting to hide an acute misunderstanding.

People who cannot stop going to casinos after big wins are almost certain to lose it and more all back. And if you believe in the math then you will believe in that. The only way any player can consistently win and win over time, is to quit at non-greedy pre-set win goals, accept that you will have some losing sessions that are no higher than your pre-set loss goal, and understand that some of your wins will be huge. And the consistent winner NEVER goes up in denomination on their next casino visit after winning on the last trip.

It is all so very easy.

I happen to think Rob makes a lot of sense with his "quit while you're ahead" strategy which is why I follow it to a certain degree.

Clearly there is nothing wrong with leaving with a profit -- any profit -- and to take that profit home no matter how small it is so you can tell your friends and relatives "yes, I really left with a profit." Leaving even with a $1 profit makes you a giant because in reality how many visitors to Vegas or any casino actually leave with even a $1 profit?

I also think it makes sense to set a win goal, but how do you know your winning is finished even after attaining a win goal amount?

There were two visits to Vegas for me where I hit two royals during the same visit. Jason hit five royals during 24 hours on one of his visits. Do you quit after only one visit?

What about my recent run of luck on that $25 machine? Should I have quit after the quad queens for $3125 and then the quad 2s for $5,000 ?? If I had I would have missed the $100,000 royal. Should I have packed up and left with the $95,000 after paying off the $5,000 marker? If I had Jason wouldn't have hit his $26,000+ royal a few hours later.

This is why I like to use a system which locks up a percentage of the big win plus allows for some additional play and the use of rising stop losses, similar to what stock market investors use.

I think it's wrong to have strict win goals where you must bolt. I think it's more appropriate to lock up a percentage of big wins and to allow yourself to have more luck as you continue to play.

One more thing. I would rather have a big win at the start of a casino trip and play with profits, then to use money out of my checking account or markers to play. If I hit a royal on my very first push of the button and then continued to play and lose I would feel better than if I had first played and lost the equivalent of a royal and then hit a royal at the end of the trip just to break even.

Winning early and then losing it doesn't hurt as much as losing and losing during what is supposed to be a pleasure trip.

If I hit a $4,000 royal at the start of a trip and then after two days lost it all but did not dip into my own checking account, I could consider that a positive trip because my checking account didn't suffer.

[redietz]

"Feelings. Nothing more than feelings.
Feelings, like I've never lost you."

Very popular circa 1975.


Alan, when you won the big royal, did you choose that machine out of the blue or was there some reason you picked that machine and denomination?

[Rob.Singer]

For a recreational player, which I now am also, there's really no "better" way since it's all a matter of preference and what you really want out of a casino trip. My goal is always to leave a winner and never to be greedy enuf so as to lose any part of an early big win.

I would be just the opposite of Alan: I'd much rather lose then hit a big winner just before leaving, bringing me back even or with profit. It makes me absolutely sick to win big right away then lose much or all of it back before I leave. And that is why I NEVER give the casinos the opportunity to get a win back until I make my next visit....a visit bounded by the exact same guidelines as the last visit. And since the new visit will again start at the lowest denomination, I never get that stale, "thrill-loss" feeling that comes natural by playing a lower denomination immediately after a big win. This is a big reason why I have had continued success in retirement.

A week ago I was in Tahoe playing at the Hyatt. We went there for our 37th anniversary because it's our favorite getaway in this world. I had planned on spending maybe up to 2 hours the first night playing, with a simple $100 win goal. But 25 minutes into it playing just a 3-level ARTT I hit four 2's with a 3 on $1 TDBP so I quit with an $1800 profit. 2 days later in Reno we stopped into Tamarack Junction, where they have the best machines in N. Nevada. As Cindy had lunch at Sully's Bar I chose to play a 25c thru $2 ARTT. Things weren't going so well when, on $2, I was dealt AAAA7 ON DDBP--my very first hand on that game. I hit the 2, was paid $4000, left no tip of course, counted out a cool $3790 profit, and quit for the trip. Played maybe 40 minutes.

Lots of people might say or "feel" better about staying on and playing. Not me, because profitting is what it's all about, gambling addiction no longer haunts me as it did when I began as an AP, and not doing what the casinos want and expect me to do is a creed I strictly follow. This is what works for me.

[RoeIncarnate]

Rob you've highlighted that what you do in a casino is a preference thing and that is why you have a different goal than others. For you the key is to leave with a profit.

For me, if I go to a casino, which is rare, I go to have fun spending time at craps. I don't really care about making a profit, I care about the entertainment value. If I wanted to make money, I'd write more computer code. I could buy an (overpriced concert ticket) or spend time in a casino. I prefer the casino, it is more fun for me. I have friends that spends thousands on music and concerts and movies, I don't spend anything near that in a casino. If I make a profit in the first 20 minutes I keep playing because I didn't go to the casino just to get 20 minutes entertainment.

I do have a personal system I use if I get up enough to take profits off the table when the chance arises so I don't give it all back, but for me that is not the point of gambling.

Be gracious when you respond.

[Rob.Singer]

No issue with your preference. Lots of people go not caring about winning or losing. I just wish you played more machines so you'd help keep them filled up for me.

[jbjb]

Whether he played or not had no bearing on your wins or losses.

[Alan Mendelson]

Alan, when you won the big royal, did you choose that machine out of the blue or was there some reason you picked that machine and denomination?

It was the end machine that I usually play under the "small dome" at Caesars. Generally there are only four video poker machines I play at Caesars. All four are end machines. I prefer end machines and the reason is I feel more comfortable having a side "open" without being between two players.

I've hit royals on that machine three times over the years. (Actually not the same machine, since the machines were changed about a year ago. Twice on that same machine, and then once on the older model machine that was in the same place.)

[Alan Mendelson]

I think Roe expressed what most of us feel. If we win in the first twenty minutes we don't want to quit playing. We came to the casino to play. While I do watch three to five movies per casino trip (nothing is better than watching movies and having room service) I don't want to hit in the first twenty minutes of play and then spend the next two days only watching movies or never going back into a casino.

Most of us look at a big casino win as ammunition for more play. Yes, I want to keep some of it, but I am not afraid to use that profit (ammo) to try to win more or to pay for my enjoyment.

[Rob.Singer]

It also may have something to do with what's waiting for you at home. In my case, my family made it easy for me to just get up and leave--full RFB and a bag full of former casino cash or not.

[arcimede$]

Once again Singer treats us to the opinion of a mathematical illiterate. I guess the trailer park must be getting a little cramped lately.

[Rob.Singer]

I think arci might want to quit while he's behind. Apparently, he isn't tuned in to the fact that our RV is being stored for vacations while we settle into the new home we bought in June. And guess what? Because I've never used my wife as an extension of a video poker and point accumulation addiction, I'm not in the Mr. Lonely rut with nothing to look forward to but the same old Indian casino trips.

Oh what fun it is when this poor fool decides to pop in....

[RS__]

Rob reminds me of Danny DeVito.

[redietz]

Rob reminds me of Danny DeVito.

My God, RS, you're right!! From the Taxi show. Either Rob wrote for DeVito or DeVito's writing for Rob!

[arcimede$]

You know I nailed Singer perfectly when he brings up my wife. It's so easy.

[Rob.Singer]

What wife? Hahahaha!!

[Alan Mendelson]

What wife? Hahahaha!!

Shame on you. You know his wife passed away. You have now fallen to a new low.

[Dan Druff]

Let's get this back on track.

Quitting "while ahead" is only psychological. It has nothing to do with your chances of being a long-term winner, except for the fact that you more likely than not save money by quitting a -EV game earlier. But if you're going to repeatedly visit the casino and play those same games in the future anyway, quitting early in one session is negligible.

However, if winning is important to you, then quitting early (when ahead) does give you the nice feeling of leaving a winner.

That 4-5 hour drive home from Vegas (longer if it's Sunday) can be brutal if you either had a big loss or threw away a big win, so for your emotional health, it's sometimes better to quit.

Also, aside from places in the middle of nowhere, there's always things to do besides gamble.

[Alan Mendelson]

Dan everything you say makes sense.

But I would only ask you and everyone else to try this:

Starting January 1, 2016 keep a log of all of your play, and in that log record only ONE thing: were you ahead at ANY TIME in any given session of play?

I think I have been ahead at some point in almost every session of play. Wouldn't it be wonderful if a red light would go off when you have reached that point when you are ahead and you quit right then? How would your yearly profits change for the full year?

Please try it. Make it a New Year Resolution. Again: were you ahead at any point in a session of play?

[quahaug]

Arci, I wasn't sure so I didn't want to say anything before. My condolences. Joe

[redietz]

Arci, my condolences also. I am very sorry. Bob