Quit While You're Ahead... Revisited

[Alan Mendelson]

I am a recreational player. I play one long session per day. I think I've been ahead at least one bet in 90% of the one-day sessions I've played.

While I won't quit being ahead one bet, what hurts is knowing I was ahead $500 or $1000 or more and didn't quit or didn't utilize a stop loss.

[Rob.Singer]

Here we go again. Okay, all you "quit while ahead" dudes -- do you mean during each session, during each day, or during each trip? And please define session and/or trip, then, so we know what you are talking about.

Quitting while playing negative expectation machines is, of course, a good thing. It reduces your losses, so you'll get no argument from me.

And then we'll get into the debate about -- if Rob wins such a huge percentage of his "sessions" -- why doesn't he just play a session, call it the end of a session, walk around the parking lot, and start another session. He must not need the money. So then someone will ask, "Well, if he doesn't need the money, why does he play in the first place?" And someone else will say, "He does it for recreation." And then Rob will explain that he is not a recreational player, and he does not do multiple sessions in a day because he does not need the money, which leaves us with the mystery of why Rob does it at all.

Red I believe you know better, even though you don't agree with my approach. RS__ is excused here because, well, as a budding craps dealer (or whatever he is ) he doesn't have the scratch to even be reading what I write.

I do win a huge % of the sessions I play, and by session I mean an individual visit to a MACHINE, which as you state can be done as many times as I like on any particular trip. These days as a recreational player I may choose to play one session or even 2 or 3 sessions on any single casino visit--then maybe even a few more at another casino. I did this in Laughlin a few months back. I hit 5 casinos and played a total of 9 sessions of 25c thru $2 ARTT, winning every one. My goal was to win at least $100/session, and I left with a $2000 profit.

When I played as a professional with a large gaming-only bankroll, each TRIP to Nevada constituted one SESSION. Playing only one was worth it because the win goal was a livable income. Could I have stayed on and played another and another? Of course, but my goal was always to win a minimum amount of money then go home. I had spent enough time away from my family for 25 years, and this type of life afforded me the opportunity to want to go, to want to put in anywhere from 1 minute to maybe 12 hours work, and then to look forward to the trip home.

You ask why I do this at all if I may not need the money--? It's called entertainment, and it's something that I am really good at doing. And who doesn't want extra money? I'm not wealthy, just old, and with age if you've planned properly comes a lack of NEED and more WANT. I've only gone to casinos 2 times in the past 5 months, so I'm not getting a lot of entertainment out of it right now and there's not a lot of spare money flowing in.

[RS__]

Rob, how long is a round trip take to Nevada? 8 hours? How long was your average session? Sounds like a lot of traveling for little playing. Traveling for 2x the amount of time playing (or whatever the ratio is) is not a good use of one's time.

As the big phony would say, "Wise up".

[Alan Mendelson]

I once made the four hour drive to Caesars, won about $3500 in less than an hour, and drove back home. I think my nine hour work day had a nice return.

[Rob.Singer]

Someday you'll get it RS__. The purpose of my weekly trips were to make money and not just to put in playing time--and the less time playing, the better. I'd guess my avg. session was 3-5 hours. Figure out the return. And it wasn't where you reside, in the safe land of theory....

Predictably, you didn't use "wise up" correctly. You attached it to an activity which is over and won't be done again. I repeatedly scold you with that phrase because you're always boxing yourself in with what you claim to know and do on a regular basis.

Lessons learned. Again.

[Alan Mendelson]

I think the correct term is hit and run.

[arcimede$]

If Singer's claims were true he could have driven 20 miles to a local casino. Obviously, he is lying.

[Rob.Singer]

Only a fool plays for keeps at Indian casinos. arci has always had a dull axe to grind with me. I can just IMAGINE how much worse that axe is these days. And it is just soooo sweet!

Must be that life stays on a good course for those who lead noble lives, while it doesn't seem to turn out so well for the bad guys. Ahhhh.......

[Alan Mendelson]

Alan, next time you're up $25 on the $5 machine, quit, lock up the profit, and enjoy yourself for the remainder of your getaway. Next time you're in town, do the same thing. See how long you'll last. Either you won't be able to do it, or Caesars will cut you off.

This is a laugh. Caesars has already cut me off. My offers are worth $250 per visit and I don't go there for $250 of free play. I go to Caesars now to take advantage of my Seven Stars benefits just like Dan and others do. I'll be there for NYE because of free hotel, Celine tickets, and about $1300 in comps that are available on my account. Dinner reservations have been made.

As I said earlier I won't quit when ahead by one bet. I don't have to. I am a recreational player with a good income.

It's for the APs who want a positive expectation strategy that I suggest quitting when ahead. It truly is positive.

[Alan Mendelson]

I used a quit when ahead at an Indian casino Arc. They cut my offers to zero. But when I played and kept playing till I lost they loved me. Oh. I'm talking about Pechanga.

[Alan Mendelson]

One more point about "quitting when ahead" and this came up on another thread:

It makes no sense to have a strategy of "quitting when ahead" unless you also have a strategy that includes loss limits. It makes no sense, for example, to have a strategy of quitting when you are ahead by $100 if on the other hand you are willing to lose $1,000 on a visit. You must have tight loss limits.

I think I would have a very hard time with a strict "quit when ahead" strategy on a volatile game such as Double Double Bonus or Royal Aces Bonus. I think it works better on a game such as 9/6 Jacks or 8/5 Bonus where you can get two-pair hands to build up credits before getting a quad which would trigger your "quit point."

[arcimede$]

I used a quit when ahead at an Indian casino Arc. They cut my offers to zero. But when I played and kept playing till I lost they loved me. Oh. I'm talking about Pechanga.

Your strategy had nothing to do with it. Your tendency to only play through your free play was likely the reason. As usual you keep confusing random luck with reality.

OTOH, I'm all for keeping up whatever works. Keep the rabbit foot close. Just don't confuse it with objective truth.

[Alan Mendelson]

Actually, Arc, quitting when ahead does work. As my father used to say about the stock market: no one ever went broke selling a stock for a profit.

The same thing is true about casino play: no one ever went broke walking out with a profit.

I am going to ask you and everyone else one more time: keep tabs on each casino visit or session or day of play and tell me: did you ever show a profit at some point?

There is an art and a science to casino play. The science is the math. The art is knowing when to leave.

[arcimede$]

Actually, Arc, quitting when ahead does work. As my father used to say about the stock market: no one ever went broke selling a stock for a profit.

The same thing is true about casino play: no one ever went broke walking out with a profit.

I am going to ask you and everyone else one more time: keep tabs on each casino visit or session or day of play and tell me: did you ever show a profit at some point?

There is an art and a science to casino play. The science is the math. The art is knowing when to leave.

I don't have to keep track, I wrote a program that simulates casino visits. I've explained it to you before. Why you insist on denying reality is beyond me.

[redietz]

Reality is a very tough place in which to reside.

[Alan Mendelson]

Reality is not a computer simulation. Reality is your own log of your own visits and your own play. Try it. Keep track of what percentage of visits you were ahead at least once. Then report back after ten visits or 20 visits.

[jbjb]

10 or 20 is meaningless. Let's see after 10,000+

[redietz]

First, we need a definition of "visit." Because, again, one can get up from a machine, take a lap around the parking lot, and then start another "visit." So one could test this theory of Alan's by doing 50 or a hundred "visits" in a day. Park at the Palms, or the Orleans, or South Point, execute your "visit," then go to the rest room, come back, execute another "visit," maybe pick up a USA Today and read a paragraph between "visits." The results will add up pretty quickly.

[Alan Mendelson]

I won't play 10,000+ sessions of video poker. If I'm lucky and visit a casino four times a month for the rest of my life I can expect 48 visits X 20 years = 960 sessions.

Redietz make it simple and use the IRS method: daily log. Each day is one visit. Are you ever ahead during that day?

[redietz]

We're trying to get maximum number of results here so we can evaluate this. If a visit ends when you are ahead or reach a loss limit, why should there be just one "visit" a day? That doesn't make sense.