I'll never play Double Double Bonus again

[Alan Mendelson]

In the interests of fair and open disclosure and since I am keeping track of my intra session wins and final tallies, I must report about a huge loss at a casino Tuesday night.

All was going OK playing 7/5 Bonus Poker. I had a small profit early in the session from some quads and full houses and at that point I could have quit with a modest win and went home. But I didn't -- and then I lost at Bonus. I didn't lose much, but I lost.

What to do?

I decided to try playing a little Double Double Bonus rationalizing that one "big hand" would offset my loss at Bonus. A big hand might be quad Aces with or without a kicker. Or one of the small quads (2, 3, 4) with or without a kicker. Just one of those and my small loss at Bonus would be wiped out.

But I never got one of those "big hands" in the first half hour, or the first hour or the second hour or third hour, or fourth hour.

The pay table was 9/5 for the Double Double Bonus game. Sure that's not a bad pay table, but if you're not getting any of the big quads you're just getting the schlock part of the pay table. And that's what happened to me.

It wasn't a total disaster -- eventually I did get quad aces but no kicker, and I did get 2222 with a 3 kicker. But they came too late. Had they come early in the session I would have danced my way out of the casino. But because they came late in the session they only partially offset my losses from Double Double Bonus.

Luckily I could afford the loss and it was relatively small considering what I've won in the past couple of weeks. But make no mistake -- this loss hurt.

One of the biggest reasons for the loss is that I followed correct strategy for playing DDB including:

I broke up full houses with 3 aces (twice) but failed to make quad aces both times it happened.

I did not hold unsuited high cards with the ace and missed out making a pair that would have salvaged the hand.

Four times I was dealt four to the royal and missed all four. Three times I was dealt three to the royal and all three times I picked up one more royal card but failed to get a winning hand. That really poured salt on my wounds.

I learned a big lesson: I will never play Double Double Bonus again at a high denomination ($5/coin). It just isn't worth the grief.

[Count Room]

Alan: You realize that the odds of making a royal with a dealt 3-card royal are still 1,081-1 against you, right? You're also going to miss those aces by breaking up a full house 23 out of 24 times. Drawing to any quad from trips is still a 23-1 shot against you, even though it looks better than that when staring at the tantalizing possibility directly on the screen.

Everything you described here sounds very standard for DDB. You went through absolutely nothing unusual based on your report. I won't try to convince you to keep playing DDB, but I seriously think you're overreacting.

EDIT: Also, carefully consider that if you quit DDB from your arsenal forever and eventually go back to playing it, Rob will mercilessly chastise you for not "doing what you said you're going to do". Gotta be careful with huge verbal commitments such as these!!

[slingshot]

In the interests of fair and open disclosure and since I am keeping track of my intra session wins and final tallies, I must report about a huge loss at a casino Tuesday night.

All was going OK playing 7/5 Bonus Poker. I had a small profit early in the session from some quads and full houses and at that point I could have quit with a modest win and went home. But I didn't -- and then I lost at Bonus. I didn't lose much, but I lost.

What to do?

I decided to try playing a little Double Double Bonus rationalizing that one "big hand" would offset my loss at Bonus. A big hand might be quad Aces with or without a kicker. Or one of the small quads (2, 3, 4) with or without a kicker. Just one of those and my small loss at Bonus would be wiped out.

But I never got one of those "big hands" in the first half hour, or the first hour or the second hour or third hour, or fourth hour.

The pay table was 9/5 for the Double Double Bonus game. Sure that's not a bad pay table, but if you're not getting any of the big quads you're just getting the schlock part of the pay table. And that's what happened to me.

It wasn't a total disaster -- eventually I did get quad aces but no kicker, and I did get 2222 with a 3 kicker. But they came too late. Had they come early in the session I would have danced my way out of the casino. But because they came late in the session they only partially offset my losses from Double Double Bonus.

Luckily I could afford the loss and it was relatively small considering what I've won in the past couple of weeks. But make no mistake -- this loss hurt.

One of the biggest reasons for the loss is that I followed correct strategy for playing DDB including:

I broke up full houses with 3 aces (twice) but failed to make quad aces both times it happened.

I did not hold unsuited high cards with the ace and missed out making a pair that would have salvaged the hand.

Four times I was dealt four to the royal and missed all four. Three times I was dealt three to the royal and all three times I picked up one more royal card but failed to get a winning hand. That really poured salt on my wounds.

I learned a big lesson: I will never play Double Double Bonus again at a high denomination ($5/coin). It just isn't worth the grief.

So you played more than 300 credits, then? Oh, that's right. You don't read the strategies. Just sayin'

[Rob.Singer]

Aside from my ongoing concern that Alan's doing exactly what just about every big-jackpot-winning/on-a-lucky-streak vp player does--which coincidentally is also what every casino manager wants & expects big winners to do--which of course is go more and often to casinos, loaded with false confidence.....this episode appears to be chock full of other lessons.

1. There of course is how he could have left with a profit early on and didn't. I suspect the dreadful thought of having to leave the action prevented that from happening.

2. I imagine the far superior games of SDBP & TBP+ were not available. Always play those before DDBP if they are.

3. I don't know the particulars of this visit, but from the general description it looks like this would have been a good candidate for playing my strategy instead of just sitting at a $5 machine hoping for more windfall. What would the results have looked like had the Aces and/or 2's w/kicker been hit on the $25 machine?

4. And HOW can someone sit and play vp for that long anyway?

[arcimede$]

Alan, welcome back to reality. When you are on a roll it is fun. What happened to you happens to everyone and happens often. I know you've had bad streaks before and this is nothing really new for you. You could get lucky your next time out or you could have an even worse session. That is what randomness predicts.

I've been lucky enough to win 27 out of 41 sessions this year. The math predicts I should win about 19 on average. I don't confuse this good fortune with any betting or money management strategy. It is simple variance. You have been confusing yourself. Hopefully, it won't take a long losing streak to wake you up.

[redietz]

I have enough trouble stomaching 10/7 Double Bonus, much less DDB. I can honestly say I have played the 10/7 progressive at Four Queens maybe five times in the last two years and been ice cold each time.

Variance on these games is rugged.

And Rob, four hours is a decent shift, but it's not that long.

[Alan Mendelson]

Drawing to any quad from trips is still a 23-1 shot against you,

This is why DDB is a killer. Twice I broke up full houses that in Bonus would have paid $200 each time. In the DDB game I was playing a full house was worth $225 -- but I had to break up the full house because I had trip aces and proper strategy is to try for the fourth ace. And twice I failed leaving me a pay of only $15. Those two failed attempts cost me $210 each. Sure, it would have been nice had one hit, but neither did.

When I did get the AAAA I was dealt AA and three junk cards so holding the aces was a no-brainer.

The other killer in DDB is when you have two pair and one pair is AA. Proper strategy is you hold only the pair of aces. In Bonus poker you hold the two pair and double your money.

Rob Singer:

What would the results have looked like had the Aces and/or 2's w/kicker been hit on the $25 machine?

Don't know. I would have been broke and calling you for a loan long before I got those hands.