Scoblete Book a Good Read

[slobdinger]

I've always been one of the hard core that say dice control doesn't work. I just finished Scoblete's book. What is my opinion now? I have to say that I can't believe it has happened but he has actally changed my opinion. Frank has actually changed my opinion from "absolutely doesn't happen" to "I think it is possible." Not that I am going to move to craps. I'm doing find in my own niche of the gambling world. But I found his story to be very convincing.

I also enjoyed the stories of how he and his craps friends and associates interacted both in an out of the casinos. I understand completely how someone can have the skill to beat a game but blows the money anyway on stupid betting. Frank and I have something in common. When I left Nevada 8 years ago, I left with a lot of my so called "friends" owing me money." So I got screwed out of money just like Frank did. When I was there I never got back even 20 cents on the dollar anyway so I just wrote the money off to live and learn. A gambler once asked me:

"What's the easiest thing to do in gambling?"

I racked my brain for an answer and then finally said:

"Lose your money."

He said "No! The easiest thing to do in gambling is loan money!"

Anyway, it was an enjoyable read. Now, I've moved on and bought Scoblete's book "Slots Conquest." I didn't know this book existed until now. I haven't turned a page yet, but I warn you, Frank. No one on this planet knows more about beating slot machines than me. You better be right or I will skewer you on a stick.

Take care.

[Alan Mendelson]

Frank has actually changed my opinion from "absolutely doesn't happen" to "I think it is possible."

Thank you.

And one more thing: Since the casino gives you (the player) the dice, it doesn't hurt to try to get the numbers that will help you win.

[slobdinger]

Thank you. And one more thing: Since the casino gives you (the player) the dice, it doesn't hurt to try to get the numbers that will help you win.

Alan, I hope Scoblete comes back to this thread. I have some questions for him. Here's the story.

For years, this goes back to the early nineties, when I first got into gambling. There used to be small block ads in every section of the Las Vegas Journal that said

"WIN $250,000 A YEAR PLAYING CRAPS." And there was only a phone number listed. These ads went on for years. Then the LVRJ did an expose on the person placing the ads. His modus operandi was quite simple. He would qualify the person who called for bankroll. Then he would meet the person at a non-threatening place like a bar close to the craps tables on a strip property. He had some kind of system he was selling. His charge was 25% of what ever the person won in the first hour at the table. If the person lost there was no charge.

Here's my thoughts on what was going on:

1. Whatever system he was teaching it was a mathematical certainty that a certain percentage of the players would be ahead after one hour of play.

2. This person would qualify as an independent casino host and was probably getting all kinds of perks from the casinos for bringing in new craps players.

I've heard that the blocks ads could also be found in the Atlantic City papers too. The ads disappeared in the early 2000's. My questions to Frank:

Do you remember those ads? Did you know any of the people involved? Can you give any more details on how and what these people were teaching? How much money were they making, etc?

[Alan Mendelson]

I never heard of those ads but there is no mathematical way to win at craps. None whatsoever. The only way to win at craps is to have the dice land on the numbers that you are betting on.

Either you get lucky or somehow influence the dice to land on your numbers.

[RS__]

I never heard of those ads but there is no mathematical way to win at craps. None whatsoever. The only way to win at craps is to have the dice land on the numbers that you are betting on.

Either you get lucky or somehow influence the dice to land on your numbers.

If you're getting a 25% free-roll on someone else's action, then you have an expectation to win.

[Alan Mendelson]

If you're getting a 25% free-roll on someone else's action, then you have an expectation to win.

Yep. It's like pimps getting 25% of what the girls bring in. Now we know what the girls have to do but what do the craps players have to do?

[RS__]

Yep. It's like pimps getting 25% of what the girls bring in. Now we know what the girls have to do but what do the craps players have to do?

They just gotta play. Some will win, some will lose.

[slobdinger]

I never heard of those ads but there is no mathematical way to win at craps. None whatsoever. The only way to win at craps is to have the dice land on the numbers that you are betting on. Either you get lucky or somehow influence the dice to land on your numbers.

I used to say "there are no professional craps players." But after reading Scoblete I think with dice control him and the others may have found a way to beat the game. That's because they were changing or attempting to change the odds through dice control.

But the person who placed the block ads in the LVRJ also found a way to beat craps too, at least for him personally. He was freerolling for a win. How many people bought his system everyday? How many people did he meet everyday. I figure his system was somewhat complicated and may or may not have carried a high variance. Selling something as easy as pass or don't pass with the odds would be to simplistic. He had to have a system that captured people's imagination.

And with millions of people a year visiting and leaving Las Vegas, no doubt many of them reading the LVRJ, the town was the perfect place for the "hustle."

Alan, what do you think about the wording of the ad "WIN $250,000 A YEAR PLAYING CRAPS." It doesn't say "MAKE $250,000" it says "WIN $250,000." It's a brilliant hustle meant to mislead. Alan, you probably win $250,000 worth of bets a year playing craps. But your losing bets cost you more than you won.

[Alan Mendelson]

They just gotta play. Some will win, some will lose.

That's not exactly a way to win, is it?

The reality is the only way to win is for the dice to show where your bets are placed. If you rely on luck the math is against you. If you can improve your chances that the dice will show your numbers then you improve the odds.

[Alan Mendelson]

Slobdinger the only way to win a lot of money at craps is either to bet big or win many small bets over and over. In all cases the math is against you. Only if you can influence the dice to improve the odds that your numbers will show on the dice do you have a chance.

[RS__]

That's not exactly a way to win, is it?

The reality is the only way to win is for the dice to show where your bets are placed. If you rely on luck the math is against you. If you can improve your chances that the dice will show your numbers then you improve the odds.

I don't think you understand how this guy was making money.

1) put out ad
2) people meet you at casino
3) tell them you'll teach them the system if they play with you for 1 hour, and you get 25% of their profit, and 0 if they lose
4) teach them some "magical winning system" (could be anything)
5) at the end of the hour or session of play, some players will be ahead, others will be behind
6) you collect 25% of the winners' profits, and don't pay anything when they lose

It's not that difficult to understand.

[Alan Mendelson]

I understand this "system" that the "ad-man" could be using RS___. My response was this:

I never heard of those ads but there is no mathematical way to win at craps. None whatsoever. The only way to win at craps is to have the dice land on the numbers that you are betting on.

Either you get lucky or somehow influence the dice to land on your numbers.

Now, the guy with the ads had no money at risk and like the pimp in my other post he was collecting 25% after a certain win goal was reached. To put it more clearly:

If the students didn't win XXX amount, the ad-man got nothing. If the students won XXX amount the ad-man would claim his 25%.
If the hooker didn't earn any money, the pimp got nothing. If the hooker earned XXX amount the pimp got 25%.

Yes, that's not how honest players belly up to the table to win.

My point is that for the honest players of the world the only way to win is to either get lucky or get the dice to land on the numbers where we've placed our money. There is no math formula in craps that will make you a winner.

My favorite con in the world goes like this:

I get a list of 200 sports bettors and to 100 of them I say Team A will win Sundays NFL game, and to 100 of them I say their opponent Team B will win.

The following week I have 100 "winners" and to half of them I say bet on Team A and to half I say bet on Team B.

The following week I have 50 winners and to half of them I say bet on A, and the other half B.

The following week I have 25 winners -- 12 will bet on A, 12 will be on B. One goes to a wedding (just want to keep this even for simplicity sake).

The following week I have 12 winners -- 6 will bet on A, 6 will bet on B.

The following week I have 6 sports bettors who think I am a genius because my "tip" gave them five winners in a row. I now ask each of those 6 to pay me $10,000 for my pick on the next game.

Then I publish a newsletter with a photo of my three big "clients" with their big paychecks for SIX winning games.

But you know what? I didn't teach them how to pick winners.

Let's do the same thing at craps: I'll start with 200 players and tell 100 to bet on pass and 100 to bet on don't pass.

But do you want to win at craps? Then you either get lucky or influence the dice.

[slobdinger]

Now, the guy with the ads had no money at risk and like the pimp in my other post he was collecting 25% after a certain win goal was reached. To put it more clearly:

If the students didn't win XXX amount, the ad-man got nothing. If the students won XXX amount the ad-man would claim his 25%.
If the hooker didn't earn any money, the pimp got nothing. If the hooker earned XXX amount the pimp got 25%.

Yes, that's not how honest players belly up to the table to win.

My point is that for the honest players of the world the only way to win is to either get lucky or get the dice to land on the numbers where we've placed our money. There is no math formula in craps that will make you a winner.

My favorite con in the world goes like this:

I get a list of 200 sports bettors and to 100 of them I say Team A will win Sundays NFL game, and to 100 of them I say their opponent Team B will win.

The following week I have 100 "winners" and to half of them I say bet on Team A and to half I say bet on Team B.

The following week I have 50 winners and to half of them I say bet on A, and the other half B.

The following week I have 25 winners -- 12 will bet on A, 12 will be on B. One goes to a wedding (just want to keep this even for simplicity sake).

The following week I have 12 winners -- 6 will bet on A, 6 will bet on B.

The following week I have 6 sports bettors who think I am a genius because my "tip" gave them five winners in a row. I now ask each of those 6 to pay me $10,000 for my pick on the next game.

Then I publish a newsletter with a photo of my three big "clients" with their big paychecks for SIX winning games.

But you know what? I didn't teach them how to pick winners.

Great hustle when it was knew but it was worn out thirty years ago.

[slobdinger]

I never heard of those ads but there is no mathematical way to win at craps. None whatsoever. The only way to win at craps is to have the dice land on the numbers that you are betting on.

Great logic! Now apply it to negative expectation video poker.

[Alan Mendelson]

Great logic! Now apply it to negative expectation video poker.

Very simply: I hope to get lucky when I play video poker. Video poker is not my job, my career, or my livelihood. I have a weekly Infomercial TV show, I am in the advertising business, I produce radio and TV commercials, I sometimes get a bit part in a movie, and I have a money-losing discussion forum.

[Alan Mendelson]

Great hustle when it was knew but it was worn out thirty years ago.

It still goes on today. Anyone part of this "hustle" would not know it's a hustle. All they would see and they say was "Bill really had the last 18 games picked -- he's got to be right about #19. I'm sending him the check."

[regnis]

I started out passing out a certain newsletter for sports betting (which shall remain nameless) 35 years ago. Then I worked my way up to handicapper and we did reasonably well. However, I almost got myself killed because when it came time for the "Lock of the Year", I refused to give out both sides of the game. Obviously, knowing who I was working for, I really had no choice. My side won easily and we could have made all of our subscribers happy, but that was not how it worked. They knew they would automatically keep half happy, and some of the players on the wrong side would still remain loyal because we had profited during the year.

It was a great system for a while but over a number of years you do lose a lot of players because of the 2 sided pick.

[slobdinger]

I went to the beach. A bottle was floating in the water. I grabbed it, opened it up and pulled out the letter inside. It said:

To whom it may concern:

Think of it this way asshole: 100 years from now I'll have an enduring two books, great great grandchildren who'll be proud to be told how their great great grandparents were part of a very happy & successful family that were their ancestors, and that oh yes....great great grampy BA was also an author who exposed the myth of the vp "ap".

And then there's you: you'll leave behind the legacy of someone who never had a job or a family and went broke gambling in Nevada, so you ran off to another state where you could drink and smoke and collect welfare while making up stories of wildly successful gambling where they have the dumbest people and dumpiest run down bars with the most trashy machines in the country. And the footnote will say, with a chuckle or two, that somehow you figured out how to eat with a mouthful of rotted-out teeth--just like your foul-mouthed beast of a mother. That's some future you're looking at!

singed, Rob Singer.

[slobdinger]

It still goes on today. Anyone part of this "hustle" would not know it's a hustle. All they would see and they say was "Bill really had the last 18 games picked -- he's got to be right about #19. I'm sending him the check."

I guess I have to agree with you here. Like the guy said, there is a sucker born every minute. regnis and redietz probably watched with morbid fascination, as I did, when that show MONEY TALKS about Darin Notaro, known as Steve Stevens, the sports handicapper was on CNBC last year. This guy was a shyster tout and I couldn't believe CNBC did such a disservice by putting a show like that on the air.

The dude sucked people in and got 50% of their money on his winning picks. Talk about a freeroll! And the dude had a 50% chance to be right. But if he lost a game he talked his clients into martingaling the situation. There was NO WAY IN HELL his clients had a chance to win in the long run giving up that kind of juice.

And the guys he had working for him? They were running a boiler room telemarketing operation to find new clients. And they needed new clients all the time. BECAUSE THEY DIDN'T HAVE ANY OLD CLIENTS!!! There was no way the clients could show a profit through even ten picks, much less a hundred.

CNBC should be ashamed of themselves for giving those guys publicity. A great disservice to the public.

[slobdinger]

I started out passing out a certain newsletter for sports betting (which shall remain nameless) 35 years ago.

The Gold Sheet?