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Thread: Strategic gambling 101

  1. #1
    This is the type of stuff I will club Singer over the head with if he is fool enough to take my challenge. I'm going to introduce you all to a video keno game called Jackpot Rocket. I studied the keno math of John Scarne many years ago. It has payed big dividends. So here is a screenshot of the game:

    http://www.imgur.com/MquQoVY

    You can see that it is a 7-spot. You can see the money odds in the Win column, the money in the progressive meters and the countdowns. Its just a fifty cent bet (two quarters) to qualify for the progressive meters. The game works like this, take the 4 out of 7 for example. The countdown is showing 248. A regular 4 out of 7 pays 5 for 1. When you hit one the countdown will go down to 247. Hit another one and the countdown will go down to 246, etc. Hit all 248 four out of sevens and you get the money in the meter. The other hits work the same way.

    So what happens after the ploppies play the game? The screenshots are from my last road trip. I find stuff like this:

    http://www.imgur.com/5F0QDie

    I can tell you this right now. Rob would have no idea what he was looking at in that screenshot because he doesn't have a clue. But because I know keno math I see something. This is a super strong play.

    Individually, none of those meters would be worth going after. With the 4 out of 7 the money is at $119 and the countdown is at 90. The frequency of a 4 out of 7 is 19.16 so the expectation would be to play about 1700 games to take the meter off. But it's only about a 95% play.

    The 5 out of 7 meter is in better shape. The money is at $221 and the countdown is 21. The frequency of a 5 out of 7 is 115.76. So the expectation would be to play about 2400 games to take the meter off. But it's only about a 98% play.

    But combined these two meters are worth going after. On my way to hitting 21 five out of sevens I'm going to take the 4 out of 7 meter off too. This makes the play about a $100 earn for about 1 hour's seat time (on turbo speed it plays at 40 games per minute, 2400 games per hour).

    But much more interesting is the 6 out of 7 meter. The money is at $511 and the countdown is 3. The frequency of a 6 out of 7 is 1366. So the expectation would be to play about 4100 games to take the meter off. Just playing to hit 3 four out of sevens would be about a $70 loser on paper. If the countdown were 2 or 1 it would be a strong play. But since I'm expected to play about 2400 games to take the bottom two meters off I'm freerolling to knock the countdown on the 6/7 down to 2, 1 or zero.

    So I had a great big go for it on this play. The 5/7 meter runs at 1% and it's a fifty cent bet. So every dollar I put into that meter represents 200 games I played. This is the meter I used to monitor how many games I played. Per the next screenshot I was 800 games in. The 4/7 countdown is down to 47. The 5/7 countdown is down to 15. And the 6/7 countdown is down to 2. This made it a straight through play until I took off all three meters.

    http://www.imgur.com/hsGA4uT

    Per the next screenshot, at 1400 games in, I had the 4 out of 7 countdown down to just 1. This game has a big drop to it and I was stuck $188 at the time. But after hitting the next 4/7 I was only $67 stuck.

    http://www.imgur.com/ijRzkDi

    At 1600 games in I hit another 6/7. At this point I was only $31 stuck.

    http://www.imgur.com/EXHfDwg

    At 2400 games in I hit the 5/7 meter. At this point I was $95 in the black, about expectation.

    http://www.imgur.com/qcXC4Tg

    Per this screenshot, at 4500 games in I completed the play by hitting the last 6/7. It was time to move on and find another play. You can see that I had $609 in credits on the machine. Since I had $200 in the machine, after the tip I made $400 on the play for two hours seat time.

    http://www.imgur.com/fu8A5Xa

    This is the type of stuff I'm going to club Singer over the head with if he is foolish enough to take my bet.
    Last edited by slobdinger; 12-18-2015 at 10:38 AM.

  2. #2
    Just curious, do you play random numbers picked by the machine?
    Take off that stupid mask you big baby.

  3. #3
    Originally Posted by quahaug View Post
    Just curious, do you play random numbers picked by the machine?
    Pretty much. This particular game has a quick pick sensor where when you hit it the machine will make the picks for you. I really don't care what numbers are picked because they odds are the same no matter what numbers you are playing.

  4. #4
    Originally Posted by quahaug View Post
    Just curious, do you play random numbers picked by the machine?
    Pretty much. This particular game has a quick pick sensor where when you hit it the machine will make the picks for you. I really don't care what numbers are picked because the odds are the same no matter what numbers you are playing.

  5. #5
    Oh, and I can tell you all this too. I did not get lucky on this play. Everything hit at about expectation. The 4 out of 7 meter came off at about 1600 games where the expectation was 1700, the 5 out of 7 meter came off at 2400 games, right at expectation, and the 6 out of 7 meter came off at 4500 games, about 400 games longer than expectation.

  6. #6
    I know nothing about keno. But if everything hit "at about expectation" how are you coming out ahead? Or, is this a positive expectation game to begin with?

  7. #7
    Originally Posted by Alan Mendelson View Post
    I know nothing about keno. But if everything hit "at about expectation" how are you coming out ahead? Or, is this a positive expectation game to begin with?
    The expectation changes based on the # of hits other people have done on those numbers. Kind of like a progressive.

  8. #8
    Originally Posted by Alan Mendelson View Post
    I know nothing about keno. But if everything hit "at about expectation" how are you coming out ahead? Or, is this a positive expectation game to begin with?
    Jackpot Rocket is a classic example of a progressive/banking game. There are 5% worth of meters. What is being banked is the hits made. The 7-spot game has an overall payback of 95% playing straight through. But I don't play straight through. I look for temporary advantages. The ploppies play the game into temporary advantage mode then get up and leave. I come behind them and complete the play. This is my style of gambling. I'm an exploiter of temporary advantages. Take a look at this next screenshot. More specifically take a look at the 4 out of 7 meter and countdown.

    http://www.imgur.com/c1VcVaj

    The only meter worth going after is the 4 out of 7 meter. The meter is at $126.75 and the countdown is on 7. Since the 4 out of 7 countdown starts at 250 this means the ploppies hit 243 four out of sevens. So to collect the meter one only needs to hit 4 out of 7 just seven more times.

    Keno math, for the most part, is easier than video poker math. I would bore you all to death doing the math from scratch. But I have the frequencies involved in this game memorized:

    7 out of 7 = 40, 984
    6 out of 7 = 1366
    5 out of 7 = 115.76
    4 out of 7 = 19.16
    3 out of 7 = 5.7

    So I'm going to do the payback for the play in the screenshot:

    The meter for the 7/7 is $741. It's a two coin quarter bet so $741 is 1482 bets
    1482/40984 = .036160

    The 6/7 pays 200 for 1
    200/1366 = .146413

    The 5/7 pays 11 for 1
    11/115.76 = .095024

    The 3/7 pays 2 for 1
    2/5.7 = .350877

    Now for the 4/7. The countdown is on 7 so we just have to make the 4 out of 7 just seven times to get the money in the meter, $126.75. So what is the average value of the 4 out of 7? The first six will pay 5 for 1, and the seventh will pay 253.5 ($126.75) for 1.

    6 times 5 plus 253.5 divided by 7 = an average value of 40.5
    40.5/19.16 = 2.113779

    So we add up all these values and I had a 274.23% plus 1% meter play through hitting the 4 out of 7 just seven times.

    As said, this is my style of gambling. I don't just walk into a casino, grab a seat, and start playing. I have to find a reason to play. I walk through the casinos punching games like this up and looking at the numbers. If I find a temporary advantage I grab a seat and play it off. If I don't find an advantage I keep walking until I do. If I go into a casino and can't find a temporary advantage to play then I just turn around, walk out the door, and head to the next casino.
    Last edited by slobdinger; 12-19-2015 at 04:20 AM.

  9. #9
    Originally Posted by Alan Mendelson View Post
    I know nothing about keno. But if everything hit "at about expectation" how are you coming out ahead? Or, is this a positive expectation game to begin with?
    What I meant by "hitting at expectation" is that I took the meters off at about the number of games I was expected too. With the 4 out of 7 the countdown was on 90. So 90 times 19.16 is 1724. I took that meter off at about 1600 games, just a little less than I was expected to. The 5 out of 7 countdown was on 21. So 21 times 115.76 is 2431. I took the 5 out of 7 meter off at about 2400 games. The 6 out of 7 countdown was on 3. So 3 times 1366 is 4098. I took this meter off at 4500 games, about 400 games longer than expected.

    So what I'm telling you is that I had neither good luck nor bad luck on this play. The meters came off at about expectation and the earn was about what was expected.

    PS You won't find keno plays like this in Nevada. At least they weren't there when I was there.
    Last edited by slobdinger; 12-19-2015 at 04:22 AM.

  10. #10
    I haven't been reading all the crap mickeycrimm writes about his exciting keno life in Montana, but I did catch a glimpse just now about some bet where he wants me to follow him around in some hickville bar or something, to watch him play keno?

    Mickey, here's a flash: I don't smoke, I don't guzzle beer, I don't play keno, being in a wasteland like Montana doesn't blow my skirt up, and I would NEVER hang around with a bum like you.

    I'm sorry you can't afford to go to Nevada any more, and I'm sorry your vehicle can't make the trip. But please do keep making up your "6-figure-a-year" stories about a "professional keno player" lurking in that tundra state. More people are laughing about it and you than you think....not to mention all those who see your handle and ignore your nonsense. But you might want to brush your remaining teeth.

  11. #11
    Originally Posted by Rob.Singer View Post
    I haven't been reading all the crap mickeycrimm writes about his exciting keno life in Montana, but I did catch a glimpse just now about some bet where he wants me to follow him around in some hickville bar or something, to watch him play keno?

    Mickey, here's a flash: I don't smoke, I don't guzzle beer, I don't play keno, being in a wasteland like Montana doesn't blow my skirt up, and I would NEVER hang around with a bum like you.

    I'm sorry you can't afford to go to Nevada any more, and I'm sorry your vehicle can't make the trip. But please do keep making up your "6-figure-a-year" stories about a "professional keno player" lurking in that tundra state. More people are laughing about it and you than you think....not to mention all those who see your handle and ignore your nonsense. But you might want to brush your remaining teeth.
    I take this as a refusal by you to take the bet, Rob. Good idea on your part. You would get your clock cleaned. I cover video poker, video keno, video blackjack, video line games, accumulator slots, slot progressives, etc. I'm not a one trick pony like you whose only trick is martingaling video poker.

    PS People have seen me drinking. And people have seen me playing machines (gambling). But no one has ever seen me doing both at the same time. When I'm in the casinos I'm all business. Coffee only. And, oh yes, smoking has been banned out of the Montana bar/casinos for six years. And I would rather live here than in a trailer park in Pahrump.

    PSS Rob, I just watched your youtube videos. The last time I saw a face like that I threw it a fish.
    Last edited by slobdinger; 12-19-2015 at 07:37 AM.

  12. #12
    Originally Posted by slobdinger View Post
    PS You won't find keno plays like this in Nevada. At least they weren't there when I was there.
    But I have picked up bits and pieces off the internet of there being video keno progressives worth playing in Southern California. Specifically, I've heard of a progressive 8-spot play that carries a $2.50 bet. The progressive is not for hitting 8 out of 8, which carries odds of 233,000 and makes it unplayable (when would you expect a payday) for a lone wolf player like myself. The meter is on the 7 out of 8 hit, which carries odds of 6232. Very hittable. And you might find progressive 6-spots (frequency on the solid six is 7753) or progressive 5-spots (frequency of the solid five hit is 1551).

    For those of you who live in Southern California, if you find any keno progressives then write down the entire payscale, figure out the minimum bet to qualify for the progressive, and clock the meter.

    If a dollars worth of action moves the meter a penny it is a 1% meter, 2 cents and it is a 2% meter, 3 cents and it is a 3% meter, etc.

    Send me all this information and I will be glad to do the math for you and tell you how high the progressive has to be in order for it to be at an advantage.

  13. #13
    Montana is a beautiful state.
    Take off that stupid mask you big baby.

  14. #14
    Originally Posted by quahaug View Post
    Montana is a beautiful state.
    It's not that a tundra state like Montana isn't beautiful, it's the people who ruined it. It has a higher % of smokers (makes them ugly) they nearly all drink too much (makes them stupid) and the majority of them drive junk cars & trucks. Perfect place for an overweight story-teller in his 50's who has no dental plan.

  15. #15
    One more little tidbit for those of you active on Wizard of Vegas. Jackpot Rocket is a game that was invented and designed by WoV's own Crystalmath. We've traded PM's over the game. He was surprised to find I've been exploiting his game. If you want to, go ahead and put the link to this thread up on WoV. I'm sure they will get a kick out of it.

  16. #16
    Originally Posted by slobdinger View Post
    If you want to, go ahead and put the link to this thread up on WoV. I'm sure they will get a kick out of it.
    I think they'll find it here. Not much traffic any more on the WOV site.

    I will have to look at the keno games now to see if there are progressives. Sometimes I'd sit down at a VP machine which has a keno option and the keno game is on the screen but I've never seen a progressive. Or, I didn't know what I was looking at. I'll pay attention next time.

  17. #17
    Originally Posted by Alan Mendelson View Post
    Not much traffic any more on the WOV site.
    You'd have to be an idiot to pay them to create or analyze a casino game for you. One disaster after another. Big talkers with tails between legs. The big forum that wasn't . Ho ho ho.

  18. #18
    Yep, they're still arguing with me that after technology and science has put robots on Mars and a comet, and cars can drive themselves here on planet earth, it is IMPOSSIBLE to build a robot to throw controlled dice on a craps table. IMPOSSIBLE they say. As if robots can be built for comets and Mars easily. LOL

  19. #19
    It is impossible to build a robot that can control dice on any craps table using current technology. It's a technology problem. You need to understand some of the technology problems that must be overcome. Some day this might change.

  20. #20
    Originally Posted by arcimede$ View Post
    It is impossible to build a robot that can control dice on any craps table using current technology. It's a technology problem. You need to understand some of the technology problems that must be overcome. Some day this might change.
    I'd put my money on JPL. I'm sorry I don't have the money to call them up and pay them to do it.

    In the meantime, I'll file your comments with "man will never walk on the moon" or "if God wanted man to fly he'd have given him wings."

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