Strategic gambling 101

[slobdinger]

JOKER'S VAULT

I have to say this is a fun little video poker game....though I usually won't play it unless things are slow elsewhere.. This game is by far the most difficult game I ever had to analyze. I sat down on this play just long enough to get some screenshots:

http://www.imgur.com/hAjdTvE

This is a one joker game where every time you make a full house, wild or natural, you get a set of ten free games. The payscale is the same in the ten free games but there are two jokers in the deck. If you make a full house in the ten free games you are awarded another set of ten free games. When you win at least 8 of the ten free games you are awarded the money in the meter. You can bet up to $2 on this game but only have to bet fifty cents to qualify for the meter. The meter starts at $100 and runs at 1.6666%.

The next screenshot is where I made a full house:

http://www.imgur.com/EyAXtGb

You can see the vault next to the progressive meter. And you can see there are seven hinges on the vault. Every hand you win will light up one of those hinges. When you light all seven of them up and win the next hand you will get the money in the meter.

The next screenshot shows where I had all sevens hinges lit with one game to go. This is where the game gets exciting. The next hand carries a huge EV. All I need is two pair or better to win the meter.

http://www.imgur.com/6Zvq5mz

On the next hand I was dealt a pair of jacks and bombed on the draw.

As stated, a tough game to analyze. I had to enlist some help to teach me some new math tricks. But here is what the final numbers look like. The average value of a regular full house is 22.91. I couldn't enter that into the software so I entered 23 for both the single joker and the double joker game. Leave the rest of the payscale the same and this will give the strategy to the game.

It take an average of 145 sets of free games to take the meter off. Since full houses in the free games triggers an extra set of free games one only has to make an average of 123 regular full houses to take the meter off.

The number of regular games per meter hit is 7877. The average cost to produce the meter hit is $250. Playing straight through the game has a return of 95.95% plus 1.6666% meter movement. So a 97.62% return.

But if you only play high numbers the return is much better. In the screenshot the meter is at $572.

572 minus 250 = 322
322/3938.5 = 8.1757%

The 3938.5 figure is derived from 7787 X the fifty cent bet.

So finding a meter at $572 is a 105.79% play. At my speed of play the average time to take a meter off is 9 hours. That makes this about a $36 an hour play. And that's why I don't play the game much. I have much better hourly's on other things.

[Rob.Singer]

Mickey, you litter the vpfree forum with this kind of nonsense, and out of over 11,000 members only one person is showing any type of mercy-interest. Can you take a hint--NO ONE CARES ABOUT YOUR PHONY STORIES!

[Alan Mendelson]

That's very unfair of you Rob. Frankly, I still can't figure out when you use your special plays and when you don't. You've made your own conflicting statements. Remember the phrase about living in glass houses.

[slobdinger]

Mickey, you litter the vpfree forum with this kind of nonsense, and out of over 11,000 members only one person is showing any type of mercy-interest. Can you take a hint--NO ONE CARES ABOUT YOUR PHONY STORIES!

Au contraire, bison breath! Take a look at the screenshot:

http://www.imgur.com/xXhoTfn

My imgur account shows me how many views my screenshots have had. This is the screenshot I put up of my Jackpot Rocket play. You can see in the picture, at the top of the screen, that I submitted this screenshot 3 days ago and it has had 223 views. All of those views came from either alanbestbuys or vpFREE. The count from Alan's forum was at 72 before I put the play up on vpFREE.

[Dan Druff]

Mickey, serious question about the Jackpot Rocket.

You say you make $100/hr under the conditions you posted when running average.

I won't second-guess that, and will assume you're right.

But isn't it a pretty monumental task to stalk these machines, wait for a player to quit, and then only be able to play if they left it in a +EV state?

That just seems like way too much work for too little return.

[slobdinger]

Mickey, serious question about the Jackpot Rocket.

You say you make $100/hr under the conditions you posted when running average.

I won't second-guess that, and will assume you're right.

But isn't it a pretty monumental task to stalk these machines, wait for a player to quit, and then only be able to play if they left it in a +EV state?

That just seems like way too much work for too little return.

I dont't sweat players, Todd. I don't have to. I just checked the numbers they have left. And Todd, you are the type of man I would invite to Montana to watch me in action. I will show you how to win every day. If you don't believe that....I don't care. In the end, Todd, whatever you think about me, as far as the winning and losing goes, I wil chew you up and spit you out.

[Dan Druff]

I was last in Montana in 2013. Actually saw a lot of the state. I did like the no sales tax thing, though I didn't like how some localities tacked it on.

I would like to see these things you talk about in person.

I haven't made a judgment about your strategies or wins/losses yet.

[Alan Mendelson]

Isn't this similar to vulturing Ultimate X machines and waiting for "must hit by" slot machines? I knew a self described AP at Rincon who did that but still lost his gaming bankroll.

[redietz]

Personally, I would want to see this kind of play in action. It makes a helluva story, especially against a Montana backdrop.

[RS__]

Isn't this similar to vulturing Ultimate X machines and waiting for "must hit by" slot machines? I knew a self described AP at Rincon who did that but still lost his gaming bankroll.

The must hit by slots are fairly complicated, to say the least. Most people, even APs, play them way too early. I couldn't imagine an AP actually making money if that was the only games he played....unless he knew the games and math very well....but if you know enough to play those slots at +EV, chances are you know other AP plays and aren't going to only play the must hits. Alan, I'd guess your self-described AP friend at Rincon read something online and thought that's all you gotta know to beat those machines [and let me guess, would he play other machines even if they weren't "+EV", like VP or table games?]. You have such a tiny edge in must-hit-slots (usually, if you have an edge), and the game is complicated [because you don't/can't know the base payback]...oftentimes you're just guessing at what the return is.

If you only vulture UX, it'd be incredibly difficult to lose in a long term sense.

[Alan Mendelson]

Let me describe the must hit by machines. They were progressive penny slots with an electric sign and meter that simply said "must hit by X dollars." If they were open when close he would play them. Of course he wasn't the only one scouting these out. Yes he also played poker.

[slobdinger]

I was drunk last night when I made a few posts. I can be a mean drunk. Todd is definitely the type of person that I respect in the gambling world. I don't sit and sweat players. What I do is let my towns soak. Once I go through and knock all the meters down I let that town soak for a month or so. Then I come back in and walk through all the casinos looking for the advantage plays. When I find an advantage I sit down and play it off. I will usually do somewhere between 15 and 30 plays a day.

The reason I do so well here is I don't have any competition. There is only one other real machine pro in this state. He has everything east of Interstate 15 and highway 89. I have everything on I 15 and all points west. I've known him for 15 years. We met in the Stardust in 2000. I taught him everything he knows about machines. He's a great poker player. His picture has been in Cardplayer Magazine a time or two. He takes a dim view of me posting up plays on the internet. But what I've told you so far is just the tip of the iceberg.

[slobdinger]

I was last in Montana in 2013. Actually saw a lot of the state. I did like the no sales tax thing, though I didn't like how some localities tacked it on.

I would like to see these things you talk about in person.

I haven't made a judgment about your strategies or wins/losses yet.

On your next trip this way, Todd, let me know. I'll be glad to show you some things. It will definitely pay for your vacation here. And you won't have to spend that many hours at it. I've always respected the poker pros. I avoided them before the boom. They just looked to battle tough to me. I didn't figure to have an edge against them so I left them alone.

[Dan Druff]

I will let you know if I come that way, Mickey. Thank you for saying that you respect me.

I can't picture myself making a jaunt to Montana during the winter, though.

[slobdinger]

I thought you all might want to know what the world's greatest machine pro looks like. So here is a picture of me drinking and having fun with all my friends at the bar. Notice the machines in the background.

http://www.imgur.com/gKu6rUg

[slobdinger]

Here's a picture of my buddy Ron, and me having fun at the bar.

http://www.imgur.com/PcIwwXt

[Bill Yung]

I thought you all might want to know what the world's greatest machine pro looks like. So here is a picture of me drinking and having fun with all my friends at the bar. Notice the machines in the background.

http://www.imgur.com/gKu6rUg

Get yourself some googly eyes.

[Alan Mendelson]

So how do these little bars feel about you winning all this money? Are you ever told not to play?

[Bill Yung]

So how do these little bars feel about you winning all this money? Are you ever told not to play?

Casinos are the most addicted gamblers ever.

There are a million of this sort of account, as at https://www.quora.com/Can-a-casino-k...-slot-machines

Maybe Crimm plays at La-La Land Casino?

[ddb1]

Slob Dinger

What are your thoughts on 5 - meter progressive VP games? At my local casino they have a 9/5 DDB game with meters on the royal, AWAK, 2-4 w/kicker, aces and 2-4. I watched the meter after 20 plays ($100) the royal went up .50, AWAK .20 and the others .10. So a dollar went into the meters after playing $100. With a base game of 98% and "typical" progressive values adding another 1% (according to VPW) and a 1% meter - does that equal a 100% game? Seems to me I couldn't really claim the whole 1% because much of it is going to the longshot meters. As a solo player, I can't sit there for 40,000 hands to snap off a royal. Or even wait out AWAK. Not to mention it is a high variance game at $5 a game. On rare occasions when the royal or AWAK gets really juicy ($9500/$2700) there may be 6 or 8 other players on the bank of 12.

Is the best strategy to look for an unusually high single meter, say aces at $995, and play until it hits (then quit)? Or maybe wait for a rare opportunity when several of the easier progressives are high? Even if the game is at 100.5% when I walk up; that still seems like a thin edge on a volatile game. Run bad for an hour and you are down $500 at least. I am not an AP, but want the best chances at winning over time. Slot benefits aren't much, maybe .05%.

Thanks