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Thread: The shooter at Caesars who threw an 11 eighteen times in a row.

  1. #1
    Now that Rob Singer is gone, I guess I will have to start a new long-running controversy. How about the time I was at a craps table at Caesars and there were three of us playing. The shooter, who was a random shooter who picked up the dice and threw them wildly, had the Eleven (yo) show up 18 times in a row. Ironically none of us had a bet on the yo -- not the first time, not the tenth time, and not the 18th time. We all just stood there in awe. Three times the stickman checked the dice to be sure they weren't weighted or tampered with or faulty. Eighteen times in a row.

    Let's see what happens here... over on the Wizard's forum I was called every name in the book when I told about this happening.

  2. #2
    Originally Posted by Alan Mendelson View Post
    Now that Rob Singer is gone, I guess I will have to start a new long-running controversy. How about the time I was at a craps table at Caesars and there were three of us playing. The shooter, who was a random shooter who picked up the dice and threw them wildly, had the Eleven (yo) show up 18 times in a row. Ironically none of us had a bet on the yo -- not the first time, not the tenth time, and not the 18th time. We all just stood there in awe. Three times the stickman checked the dice to be sure they weren't weighted or tampered with or faulty. Eighteen times in a row.

    Let's see what happens here... over on the Wizard's forum I was called every name in the book when I told about this happening.
    Alan, you will never be able to replace Rob....lol

  3. #3
    Originally Posted by spojoey View Post
    Alan, you will never be able to replace Rob....lol
    Darn, for a moment you had me excited that someone was going to say I LIED. LOL

  4. #4
    To shoot at 11 with two dice is 1 in 18 odds. To do that 18 consecutive times is 1 in 39346408075296537575424.

    Its harder to do that than to win the Powerball lottery twice. No wonder the BS alert on the WoV forum is on.

  5. #5
    Grits n' Gravy once rolled 77 sevens in a row. Anything's possible.

  6. #6
    As my friend John C. said "if there are odds for something to happen, it will happen."

    It happened.

    Unfortunately no one made a dime from it happening. This was not on a come-out roll. 18 yo's in a row and not one of the three of us had a bet on it.

  7. #7
    The number is 1/(3.9e22). The number is so absolutely massive you can't even begin to try to imagine it. You are more likely to hit FOUR single-line VP royal flushes in a row than rolling 18 yo's in a row (using optimal VP strategy). It's not even close, the difference is by more than a factor of 10,000. Side by side, one VP spin & one dice throw, by the time you roll 18 yo's in a row, I will have hit 4 RF's in a row.....and I will have done that more than 10,000 times.

  8. #8
    Yeah, I know RS___. Except that the darn thing happened. And three times the stickman examined the dice. And we all stood there in disbelief. Crazy world, isn't it?

    I wonder what everyone would have said if someone had just $1 on the yo and parlayed it? Well, relax, no one did. No one had a bet on it. The yo's just came... one after another. And frankly, I couldn't tell you which of the two dice was showing the 6 and 5 on each roll. I couldn't say it was Die A or Die B.

  9. #9
    I have experienced some wild odds-against situations, but nothing comes close to that -- obviously.

    The wildest things I've experienced were hitting three RFs in a span of a couple hundred hands and winning 17 football spread wagers in a row. But what you saw is magnitudes beyond. It was truly a statistical miracle.

  10. #10
    Yep... a statistical miracle. And over at the Wizard's forum it's driving them nuts.

    Just because the odds are great against something happening doesn't mean it's not going to happen.

  11. #11
    Originally Posted by Alan Mendelson View Post
    Yep... a statistical miracle. And over at the Wizard's forum it's driving them nuts.

    Just because the odds are great against something happening doesn't mean it's not going to happen.
    If a sequence of events has already occurred, I believe that its 100% odds that it happened!

  12. #12
    I just posted this over on the Wizard's forum -- because they are going nuts over there:

    The odds don't say it can't happen. The odds say there is a one in 24-gazillion to the 8th power chance that it can happen. So that means it can happen, and it did happen.

  13. #13
    Extremely long odds for sure. But if you say you saw it then I take your word for it.

  14. #14
    Why would I lie? I have nothing to prove. I didn't do it. I stood there and watched. And it wasn't even a DI who threw it --. so I can't use his throw to advocate Dice Influencing. It was a random shooter who beat the odds. And not one of the three of us even had a bet on it.

    And for that I'm being accused of either lying or making up a fantasy or miscounting. You don't think we stood there talking about it? If I miscounted so did the two other players and the dealers and the floorman.

  15. #15
    I asked the Wizard to cancel my membership over on his forum. I won't participate there again. Too many personal attacks and insults and lies.

    One forum member, Mr V, posted a poll on the WOV forum and one of the choices was that I was a schizophrenic. The Wizard agreed with me that the poll was offensive and he removed the poll and killed that particular thread on his forum. But then, Mr V, not wanting to lose the opportunity to insult me again posted this:

    One of the poll choices I provided for was "schizophrenia." That was not a joke.

    He also wrote that a cause of my seeing the 18 yo's "could of course include some form of mental illness, some condition which causes such a delusion."

    Another member of that Forum challenged me to take a lie detector test.

    One of our forum members who came here from the Wizard's forum said this:

    Quote: Alan's own forum, he tacitly admits that his motivation for spouting such nonesense here was as much about winding up us 'mathletes' as anything else.

    I mention this because I never used the word "mathletes" which is a controversial word over on the WOV forum.

    I did get a limited amount of support from WOV forum members who doubt I would lie -- and I didn't.

    Some tried to reason that the dice have no memory and on each roll the odds of an 11 showing are the same. But trying to reason that way can't work there.

    I don't need to debate what I saw and what happened. I have no reason to lie. I wasn't selling anything, I had no claims to have won anything, and in fact I won nothing from what another shooter did.

    And as I pointed out -- it was a random shooter so I couldn't even use the 18 yo's in a row in the debate about dice influencing.

    You can have the Wizard's forum. I don't want it.

  16. #16
    I have had people doubt my winning 17 spread games in a row, which is more likely to have happened by a factor of a hundred million than what you saw.

    You realize that it's possible (unlikely but possible) that somewhere Caesars stashed the video of that 18 in a row. I prefer to think it exists in a safe somewhere in a mansion, and the owner pulls it out once a year, maybe on a satanic holiday, to bask in the improbability of it.

    If you had a video of that, you'd get a fortune for it on ebay.

  17. #17
    Originally Posted by redietz View Post
    I have had people doubt my winning 17 spread games in a row, which is more likely to have happened by a factor of a hundred million than what you saw.

    You realize that it's possible (unlikely but possible) that somewhere Caesars stashed the video of that 18 in a row. I prefer to think it exists in a safe somewhere in a mansion, and the owner pulls it out once a year, maybe on a satanic holiday, to bask in the improbability of it.

    If you had a video of that, you'd get a fortune for it on ebay.
    I doubt the skeptics would believe a video.

  18. #18
    Originally Posted by Alan Mendelson View Post
    Another member of that Forum challenged me to take a lie detector test.
    The appropriate counter to a challenge like this is to set conditions...so bet the doubting Thomas that you'll pass the test.

    If he thinks that a lie detector test will prove whether or not the yo's came 18 in a row, and he's certain that they did not, then it would be easy money for him.

    Make it worth your while, but don't price him out...otherwise how could he resist?
    Last edited by coach belly; 01-09-2016 at 04:30 PM.

  19. #19
    I wouldn't lower myself to do a polygraph over something as inane as this.

    There was nothing at stake for me. I don't care if they believed me or not. I have nothing to gain if I am believed and I have nothing to lose.

    But I don't want to be insulted. And that's why I'm finished with them.

  20. #20
    Originally Posted by Alan Mendelson View Post
    One of our forum members who came here from the Wizard's forum said this:

    Quote: Alan's own forum, he tacitly admits that his motivation for spouting such nonsense here was as much about winding up us 'mathletes' as anything else.
    Say it aint so! Name this Judas!

    I just reviewed the thread...the offending member is "Once Dear"

    Who is that on this forum?
    Last edited by coach belly; 01-09-2016 at 05:07 PM.

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