How much can you win playing video poker?

[Alan Mendelson]

In another thread I said that I believed a player at high limit video poker, including $25 video poker, could win $100,000 -- and this was based on playing negative expectation games including but not exclusively 8/5 Bonus poker.

I was asked this question:

Alan. If someone can win $100,000 at vp playing high stakes then a quarter player should be able to win $10,000 maybe $20,000 per year playing sub optimal pay tables, correct?

I think it's relative. And of course it depends on how lucky you get.

If a player at $25/coin VP can win $100,000 a year, then I think it is likely a player at $5/coin VP can win $20,000 a year.

At $1/coin the winnings could be $4,000 a year.

At 25-cents/coin it would be $1,000 a year.

Where do I get my numbers from? The payoff on a royal flush.

Suppose you play a 99.2% game -- with a little luck and without a royal you might have a return of 96% or 97%. It's when you hit the royal on top of that 96% or 97% that you have a chance for a yearly profit equal to the royal. There is one important element and that is not putting it all back after you win, and controlling losses when the game isn't going your way.

If there is a 25-cent player who does have a yearly profit of more than a thousand dollars a year -- or $10,000 or $20,000 a year -- then I say good for them. But I wouldn't expect it.

I fully expect a player at $25/coin to be able to have a yearly profit of $100,000 and to me that is not an unreasonable claim.

[a2a3dseddie]

I fully expect a player at $25/coin to be able to have a yearly profit of $100,000 and to me that is not an unreasonable claim.

Alan,

When you say "yearly profit" what do you mean exactly?

$100,000 in W2Gs? $100,000 win BEFORE deductions? $100,000 win AFTER deductions?

[Alan Mendelson]

Yearly profit is a yearly net profit. Not gross wins, not an accumulation of W2Gs.

Remember, a royal at $25/coin VP is a $100,000 pay.

[coach belly]

quahaug's ratio is off.

25.00 : .25 as 100000 : 1000

If you hit 2 royals in a year playing quarters, +$1000 for the year is not unreasonable.

[jbjb]

To profit $100,000 a year on $25 VP, all you'd need to do is be ahead by an average of about $274 a day. Or just a little more than one 3 of a kind on most jacks or better type games.

[Alan Mendelson]

To profit $100,000 a year on $25 VP, all you'd need to do is be ahead by an average of about $274 a day. Or just a little more than one 3 of a kind on most jacks or better type games.

Which is why I didn't doubt Rob's claims about winning $100K per year on average.

[arcimede$]

First of all, Alan, when you claim someone can do it every year you are making a very questionable assumption that a player can beat the odds over time. Maybe 1 out of 1000 players might be able to accomplish this playing a negative game.

As for Singer, I pointed out in the past that even he claims to have only played at $25 level 3 times and won twice.

[Alan Mendelson]

Arc, how do you know he played at the $25 level only three times? I wouldn't be surprised if he played at $25 and $100 levels -- and a lot of the time.

Do you really think he drove from Phoenix to Vegas once a week to start his play at 25-cents or even $1 ??

I think he started at $5 and moved up. And I think he moved up quickly.

Would you go to a casino with $53,000 cash in your pocket to play 25-cent video poker? Would you even play $1 video poker?

Heck, it wouldn't surprise me if he started at $25.

[arcimede$]

Arc, how do you know he played at the $25 level only three times? I wouldn't be surprised if he played at $25 and $100 levels -- and a lot of the time.

Sorry, it is the $100 level he claimed to have played only 3 times. He claimed to play at the $25 level about 20 times.

Do you really think he drove from Phoenix to Vegas once a week to start his play at 25-cents or even $1 ??

He plays a progression. Starts at $1 and moves up. If he reaches his win goal he never plays above whatever level he is at at the time.

I think he started at $5 and moved up. And I think he moved up quickly.

Maybe you should read what he stated instead of making assumptions.

Would you go to a casino with $53,000 cash in your pocket to play 25-cent video poker? Would you even play $1 video poker?

I never said that. You really need to listen to what Singer has stated. He plays 400 credits at each level. It works out $400 at the $1 level, $800 at the $2 level, $2000 at the $5 level, $4000 at the $10 level and $10,000 at the $25 level and finally $40,000 at the $100 level. However, as I mentioned before even he has only played 3 times at the highest level and less than 10% of the time at the next highest level. All of this for a win goal of $2500.

Heck, it wouldn't surprise me if he started at $25.

Well, that is not what he has claimed.

[Alan Mendelson]

Rob has claimed a lot of things, hasn't he? I'm sticking with he played a lot of high limit video poker and that's why he was able to show all those big jackpot photos to his publisher.

If he really played only a progression and really quit with his modest win goals, we wouldn't have had so many jackpot photos, would we?

[arcimede$]

Rob has claimed a lot of things, hasn't he? I'm sticking with he played a lot of high limit video poker and that's why he was able to show all those big jackpot photos to his publisher.

If he really played only a progression and really quit with his modest win goals, we wouldn't have had so many jackpot photos, would we?

If he has claimed different things at different times why would anyone believe anything he says? Not only do you claim you believe him, you believe only his claims that you want to believe.

Why is it you only believe the things that you want to believe? I suspect it is because that allows you to continue supporting him in spite of the mountains of evidence to the contrary. Everything I just stated came directly from Singer's posts on freevpfree.

[RS__]

Alan, you're defending Rob in an odd way. It'd be like being asked if you (general) drove drunk last night then replying, "No, because that'd be illegal."

[Alan Mendelson]

I'm not defending him at all. I'm simply pointing out that he very easily could have won $100,000 a year playing $25 video poker and other high limit games. I believe he never really played his progressions starting at $1 or 50-cents. I think the only reason he had so many big jackpot pictures is that he was always playing high limits.

Be rational for a moment: could a guy hit that many big jackpots playing so little at high limits? No. I think he played more high limit VP than he ever told anyone.

Frankly it's the only way to account for so many big jackpot photos that he showed his publisher.

Since I believe he played more high limit than he admitted to -- it makes perfect sense that he won $100,000 a year. Winning $100K at $25 VP is very believable.

[RS__]

For 1 or 2 years? Yes believable. For 10 years though? Not believable.


Remember that jackpot picture Rob posted, where he supposedly hit a royal flush on a deuces wild progressive? Seems odd he'd play that game, since he's said something like, "Deuces wild is a sucker's game and winners don't play that." Yet low and behold, he posts a picture of a royal flush hit.

I'm starting to think they're other people's jackpots photos.

[Alan Mendelson]

Why not believable? The first time I sit down at a $25 game I hit a $100,000 royal. How many trips per year did Rob make to Vegas?

Add in a little of his "discipline" of quitting when ahead and it's entirely believable.

Don't discount that "quitting when ahead" mantra of his. You might not think there's any "math" behind it, but there is plenty of "reality" behind it.

And about other people's photos: really? Can you come up with something better?

[Rob.Singer]

If people don't want something to be, such as the many $5 thru $100 game jackpots I wrote/posted about in GT for so many years and even the four $25 winners posted here a few years ago, then they just won't. Simple as that. And it makes no difference because we've got that money and they don't. Besides, do you EVER think someone as scorned as arci over this as well as the nightly misery he now faces via an ever-cheerful boost from me, would be able to do anything but create false scenarios and lie? He's just helping himself cope. That's all it is.

Struggle with this, all yee little people (esp. the one making minimum wage as a dealer ). Until I started getting banned from playing at several Strip casinos (and I'm talking about truthful published bans--not Dancer's and other phonies on vpfree claims that always go unsupported) I played up to 400 credits each at the $1 thru $100 levels. After that, I played a ton of $1 thru $25 ARTT, where the majority of play was at the $25 games. So while arci correctly recalls me saying I seldom had to play the $100 machines due to attaining my win goals on other lower levels, he repeatedly lies about how many times I played $25 games.

Bankroll is another hurtful issue for the minions. I used a gaming-only BR of 3X a session bankroll requirement, which was $57,200---or nearly $172k overall. And each session I had a mere 5% win goal....of the $57k roll. Let's see any of the geniuses here--particularly the one who was stupid enuf to humiliate himself with releasing IRS forms showing $4000 worth of profit over four years, should that even be believed given the relatively "huge" amount of limited losses identified in the final year--give ANY bankroll a try for a "tiny" 5% profit with 5 or 6 denominations trip after trip. But they'll never do it because they lack the structure, the determination, and the discipline to see it through.

As my grandson says: Game Over!

[LoneStarHorse]

You don't have access to $50,000 CASH... Tell you what I'm going to embarrass you day in and day out in here....

If people don't want something to be, such as the many $5 thru $100 game jackpots I wrote/posted about in GT for so many years and even the four $25 winners posted here a few years ago, then they just won't. Simple as that. And it makes no difference because we've got that money and they don't. Besides, do you EVER think someone as scorned as arci over this as well as the nightly misery he now faces via an ever-cheerful boost from me, would be able to do anything but create false scenarios and lie? He's just helping himself cope. That's all it is.

Struggle with this, all yee little people (esp. the one making minimum wage as a dealer ). Until I started getting banned from playing at several Strip casinos (and I'm talking about truthful published bans--not Dancer's and other phonies on vpfree claims that always go unsupported) I played up to 400 credits each at the $1 thru $100 levels. After that, I played a ton of $1 thru $25 ARTT, where the majority of play was at the $25 games. So while arci correctly recalls me saying I seldom had to play the $100 machines due to attaining my win goals on other lower levels, he repeatedly lies about how many times I played $25 games.

Bankroll is another hurtful issue for the minions. I used a gaming-only BR of 3X a session bankroll requirement, which was $57,200---or nearly $172k overall. And each session I had a mere 5% win goal....of the $57k roll. Let's see any of the geniuses here--particularly the one who was stupid enuf to humiliate himself with releasing IRS forms showing $4000 worth of profit over four years, should that even be believed given the relatively "huge" amount of limited losses identified in the final year--give ANY bankroll a try for a "tiny" 5% profit with 5 or 6 denominations trip after trip. But they'll never do it because they lack the structure, the determination, and the discipline to see it through.

As my grandson says: Game Over!

[james40]

If people don't want something to be, such as the many $5 thru $100 game jackpots I wrote/posted about in GT for so many years and even the four $25 winners posted here a few years ago, then they just won't. Simple as that. And it makes no difference because we've got that money and they don't. Besides, do you EVER think someone as scorned as arci over this as well as the nightly misery he now faces via an ever-cheerful boost from me, would be able to do anything but create false scenarios and lie? He's just helping himself cope. That's all it is.

Struggle with this, all yee little people (esp. the one making minimum wage as a dealer ). Until I started getting banned from playing at several Strip casinos (and I'm talking about truthful published bans--not Dancer's and other phonies on vpfree claims that always go unsupported) I played up to 400 credits each at the $1 thru $100 levels. After that, I played a ton of $1 thru $25 ARTT, where the majority of play was at the $25 games. So while arci correctly recalls me saying I seldom had to play the $100 machines due to attaining my win goals on other lower levels, he repeatedly lies about how many times I played $25 games.

Bankroll is another hurtful issue for the minions. I used a gaming-only BR of 3X a session bankroll requirement, which was $57,200---or nearly $172k overall. And each session I had a mere 5% win goal....of the $57k roll. Let's see any of the geniuses here--particularly the one who was stupid enuf to humiliate himself with releasing IRS forms showing $4000 worth of profit over four years, should that even be believed given the relatively "huge" amount of limited losses identified in the final year--give ANY bankroll a try for a "tiny" 5% profit with 5 or 6 denominations trip after trip. But they'll never do it because they lack the structure, the determination, and the discipline to see it through.

As my grandson says: Game Over!

Ah little man, even Alan, your only friend here, says you are a liar and is troubled by your sad online persona.

More evidence....

Narcissistic Personality Disorder

Narcissistic personality disorder is a destructive preoccupation with one’s own personal adequacy, power and prestige. People with this disorder crave for admiration, have an unreasonably strong sense of entitlement and are often preoccupied with unrealistic fantasies of success, beauty and ideal love. Unlike malignant narcissism, narcissistic personality disorder is defined as a mental illness in DSM-V (Diagnostic and Statistical Manual of Mental Disorders, the Fifth Edition).

[LoneStarHorse]

james40

Sad part is little man will continue to be a "blow hard" even if he got caught "red handed" lying... Which he has been time and time again.... I feel we should ALL ignore him starting now...
Just let Alan talk to him... It will put him over the edge

Ah little man, even Alan, your only friend here, says you are a liar and is troubled by your sad online persona.

More evidence....

Narcissistic Personality Disorder

Narcissistic personality disorder is a destructive preoccupation with one’s own personal adequacy, power and prestige. People with this disorder crave for admiration, have an unreasonably strong sense of entitlement and are often preoccupied with unrealistic fantasies of success, beauty and ideal love. Unlike malignant narcissism, narcissistic personality disorder is defined as a mental illness in DSM-V (Diagnostic and Statistical Manual of Mental Disorders, the Fifth Edition).

[Alan Mendelson]

Rob clear this up: you played a lot of $25 video poker, yes or no? And not just a few hands after a progression from lower denominations?