Shufflemaster Table Game Side Bet Progressive Reaches Over $270,000 at Morongo

[alpax]

Notice: I am posting this out there for the table game recreational players and not the table game experts, please do not be overly harsh on the comments.

Morongo offers the Shufflemaster Progressive Table Game side bet to four of their table game offerings. Based on observation, it is one of the biggest appealing features that draws people to this casino than other nearby places (I heard Soboba has it), the possibility of winning thousands of dollars. I firmly believe and agree with the "Wizard of Odds" M. Shackleford that "All side bets are sucker bets".

I was at Morongo during the past weekend and saw the jackpot climb over $270,000, which gave me the motive to post this.

This progressive bonus is based off of the 5 card outcome on the following games:

1. Three Card Poker - The 3 cards you are dealt and the 2 face down community cards. Must play the hand in order to qualify and see the face down community cards, a fold will forfeit the bonus. On very rare occasions I saw three of a kind and straights thrown away (the odds of connecting are small anyways) because of their garbage 3 card deal.

2. Mississippi Stud - The 2 cards you are dealt and the 3rd/4th/5th street community cards. Must play through the 5th street to qualify. A fold will forfeit the entire bonus, it is common to miss out on trips, full boats, and even quads when you are dealt ugly hands like 2 and 5 offsuit.

3. Four Card Poker - The 5 cards you are dealt. Chances are if you have a qualifying winning hand of 3 of a Kind or better, you are obviously going to play it 3 times the Ante.

4. Ultimate Texas Holdem - The 2 cards you are dealt and the first 3 card flop (excluding the turn/river cards). Chances are if you have a qualifying winning hand of 3 of a Kind or better, you are obviously going to play 2 times the Ante.

I do not know how much the rake is for each $1 side bet (how much goes to the house and how much goes towards the jackpot). The $1 wager is not returned even on a win (normally on table games it is returned when you win).

The side bet payouts with respect to the $270,000 progressive meter

a. Royal Flush --- 100% Progressive Prize --- Odds 1 : 649,739 --- 270000 / 649739 = .4156 ev
b. Straight Flush --- 10% Progressive Prize --- Odds 1 : 72,192 - 27000 / 72192 = .374 ev
c. 4 of a Kind --- $300 Prize --- Odds 1 : 4164 - 300 / 4164 = .072 ev
d. Full House --- $50 Prize --- Odds 1 : 693 - 50 / 693 = .072 ev
e. Flush - $40 Prize - Odds 1 : 506 - 40 / 506 = .079 ev
f. Straight - $30 Prize - Odds 1 : 254 - 30 / 254 = .118 ev
g. 3 of a Kind - $9 Prize - Odds 1 : 46.3 - 9 / 46.3 = .194 ev

I add up all the EVs for each payout and got 1.3246 which is above 1 based on that progressive level. Though it is positive expectation, 97.1% of the time you will lose this side bet wager (High card / one pair / two pairs), hence the variance is very high since the odds of getting a paying hand are small. You are forced to play the base game which carries expected losses to even get the opportunity to play this side bet.

I was told the progressive increases about $12,000 to $15,000 per week and resets at $10,000 when the Royal Flush hits. If the straight flush hits, 10% of the jackpot gets deducted. There have been a few straight flush hits during the span, but it has been a while since the royal flush hit to reset the jackpot.

[alpax]

I normally go to Morongo just once a month, but with the jackpot being so high I checked it out last Sunday.

I heard someone during the week hit a Straight Flush to reduce the jackpot progressive by nearly $30,000. It was at $267,000 when I started at 5pm in time for the Sunday drawings, by the end of the drawings at 10pm, it climbed back to $271,000.

I paid 3 Card Poker to stay alive for those hours, did get a three of a kind (30 to 1 on Pair Plus and 4 to 1 on Ante and 9 bucks on the side bet). But on the side bet, since I probably played more than 100 rounds, I lost in the end. Not worth chasing this. Horrible that the table minimums were $15 on crowded days.

[Alan Mendelson]

Is there some kind of record high for this?

[RS__]

RF I got 1/649,740.

The prize should always be reduced by $1, BTW (unless it pays, for instance, full house paying $51 for $1 (or $50 to $1)). But it seems like, since the $1 side bet is not returned, it pays $50 for $1 or $49 to $1.

Frequency of those payouts would be even lower, since, player is not going to play every hand (like you said, throwing away 2/5 in MS will hurt your EV on the side bet since you're no longer able to win if you'd'a ended up with a 3oak/4oak/FH/straight). You'd have to figure out the frequency of each hand result in order to figure the EV for the side bet. Unfortunately, that most likely means having to figure out a new strategy for optimizing your normal game bet as well as the side bet (i.e.: perhaps you now play 4/5s on MS).

And what I'm mostly confused about is -- three card poker having 2 community cards? Do you mean bonus/side bet cards?

[alpax]

Is there some kind of record high for this?

This current jackpot is a record high for the casino since this progressive bonus has been introduced in late 2013.

The record progressive jackpot awarded was a 7 card straight flush progressive in Pai Gow Poker in 2011 worth $330,000+, it happened on the day before I played on a Sunday. That has been around longer through. The progressive on that is currently at $67,000, I think a jackpot was hit 4 months ago. Getting 5 Aces awards 10% of the progressive.

RF I got 1/649,740.

The prize should always be reduced by $1, BTW (unless it pays, for instance, full house paying $51 for $1 (or $50 to $1)). But it seems like, since the $1 side bet is not returned, it pays $50 for $1 or $49 to $1.

Frequency of those payouts would be even lower, since, player is not going to play every hand (like you said, throwing away 2/5 in MS will hurt your EV on the side bet since you're no longer able to win if you'd'a ended up with a 3oak/4oak/FH/straight). You'd have to figure out the frequency of each hand result in order to figure the EV for the side bet. Unfortunately, that most likely means having to figure out a new strategy for optimizing your normal game bet as well as the side bet (i.e.: perhaps you now play 4/5s on MS).

And what I'm mostly confused about is -- three card poker having 2 community cards? Do you mean bonus/side bet cards?

You are correct about the Royal Flush being 1 in 649,740. I just quickly took the values from the Wikipedia article Poker Probability at the time of posting.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Poker_probability

As for the calculation of the return, though the Wizard of Odds site does not have the exact structure (which is surprising since they offer the same progressive at MGM properties). Since you do not get your $1 wager back even after you win, I did not put in the -1 return on the 97.2% of the hands you lose. I followed Shackleford's calculation structure as much as possible, although my odds are off by 1 unit in the previous part, I still think the overall opportunity is a high variance positive edge situation.

http://wizardofodds.com/games/ultimate-texas-hold-em/

I know CET has the $1 million 6 card hand progressive on their table games, since you keep your wager if you win, there is the -1 part for the 97% of the time you do not get the winning hand.

On the three card poker part, my bad again, I meant to refer it as "side cards" since the community cards are by definition cards that are in play in the original game. The dealer's 3 cards are not in play so 2 side cards are revealed after all players made their decision to play or fold. Crazy 4 Poker at CET has that 1 side card since each player gets 5 cards.

I agree that each player must adjust their strategy with the progressive being so high as well as the few times they throw away their hand will lower their EV as well. It is harder to figure out the true EV with all the situations accounted for. From actual playing expereince, it is more rough playing $15 minimums on the base game to get a chance than having to bet $1 every hand.

Once again thanks for your insights and corrections!

[jbjb]

http://wizardofodds.com/games/ultimate-texas-hold-em/

Scroll down to "Michigan Progressive."

Odds will be the same for any game.

Edit, I see Alpax beat me to it.

[alpax]

Thanks jbjb for confirmation, I trust your extensive gambling knowledge and expertise.

I might go this weekend to see if the progressive is still there.

[alpax]

I went last night after the Super Bowl. I did not go for two weeks and the jackpot is still going strong at $265,000. (It was at $262,700 when I arrived). Another straight flush or two must have been awarded during the span.

[alpax]

I made a visit this past Sunday, the jackpot when I departed was at $266,000. I did not go last week but I heard the jackpot was at $263,000 from someone who was there.
This means there is at least people are hitting the straight flush on 5 card draw each week, but no royal flush yet.

[alpax]

I will confess that I have an obsession over this to a point where I made yet another trip this past Sunday. Nobody hit a straight flush this time and the jackpot progressive has gone up to $290,000+

I will post March 2016 promotions later tonight.

[alpax]

I am late to report that last Thursday March 31st, someone has hit the progressive jackpot for $271,000 from what I heard this past Sunday.

The story was that it happened at around dawn where there were very little players around. The person was playing at a three card poker table and was able to claim the prize with not too much attention, wish the person was me.

The jackpot was reset not down to 0 but to $150,000. When I left Morongo last Sunday, it was back at $164,000. The casino must have made a ton with this progressive enough to offer a higher starting point, it can reach over $200k in a couple of weeks.

[GeorgeJ.]

From my observations in Vegas, the typical amount that goes from each dollar bet on a table Progressive is about 20 cents. So each $5 bet toward a Progressive brings up the Progressive amount by about $1.