Which bet would you take?

[Alan Mendelson]

In a separate thread Count Room wrote this:

Someone could offer me 4-5 odds on a coin flip and I would have a much better chance of winning one flip than being offered 150-1 odds to pick a grey button out of a box of 100 white buttons while I am blindfolded.

The second example is a far superior bet even though my chance of winning a button draw is slim.

Which bet would you take and why? Would you put your money on the coin flip bet, or would you put your money on the button bet? You would be betting that you would win the coin flip and you would be betting that you would pick the grey button.

[RS__]

If I read it correctly, then without a doubt the button bet is a better bet, with a lower chance of success: a 1/100 chance of success for 1 trial, but a 51% winner.

Winning 4-5 on a coin flip is awful, a 10% loser.

[Count Room]

Alan: All I can say is that I am thankful for your running the forum and having a distinguished journalist such as yourself being available to the masses. For your own sake, I am also thankful that you have restricted all non-casino wagering to just picking up the tab at a restaurant and that no serious Vegas prop bettor will have a piece of you.

[Alan Mendelson]

I asked the question because I wanted to see an answer like the RS__ answer.

The RS___ answer is on par with the argument for adding odds to the passline when the point is 4 (in the game of craps) instead of taking the odds money and putting it on a 6 or 8. There is a lower chance of success with the odds money on the 4 but the payoff is better.

I'm just the opposite. I'd rather the coin flip with a 50% chance of winning even with a lower payout. And instead of putting the odds on the point of 4, I'd use the odds money from the point of 4 as bets on the 6 and/or 8.

[redietz]

Alan, regarding that tagline from coach, you do realize that being ahead at the cessation of an event is the definition of winning. You have therefore used a word's definition to make a statement about the word. I had a philosopher friend who broke out the word "recursive" for such moments, but I'm no philosopher, and I think that word has been hijacked by programmers anyway.

Basically, you're saying winning is the only way to win. Now I'm a fan of Charlie Sheen and all that (you know, WINNING), but there's not much point to be made by saying, "winning is the only way to win."

It's like saying, "You've got to be ahead at the finish line to win."

And that was the point I was making previously.

[coach belly]

Alan, regarding that tagline from coach

Geez...take the tagline down before we all drown in dietz-tears.

I didn't even notice it until the ditz cried about it.

He'll feel better if you use his poem instead...this way maybe he won't stoop to asking others to read it anymore...maybe.

LoneStar, did you catch my "Singer at the Bat" adaptation of a great American poem?

[redietz]

Nah, coach, we're on the Best Buys forum. It's a nexus of self-promotion and making infomercials about yourself. It would be contrary to the site values if I didn't ask people to read it....over and over. And I'm all about community values.

[coach belly]

Nah, coach, It would be contrary to the site values if I didn't ask people to read it....over and over.

Yeah ditz...that's why I wrote "maybe".

But credit where credit is due...well done sir.

[Rob.Singer]

It seems there's several Wizard sympathizers in our midst. More like a mercy-gathering. Redietz even had to pretend the coin flip and the button selection was going to be more than a one time event in a futile attempt to save the Wiz's reputation.

These are the type of people who keep LV casinos open and maintained. While they're theorizing about every event the casinos are realizing profits from them.

[jbjb]

I wouldn't take either bet. One has a disadvantage and the other way too much variance.