How To Play Craps Like A Math Nerd

[RoeIncarnate]

Anyone read the "How To Play Craps Like A Math Nerd" by Todd Gades.

It's a good read about some lower limit strategies. Eventually he gets into some more interesting combinations.

The part about fibonacci was interesting. Especially when compared to Martingale.

http://youcanbetonthat.com
Linked on the left-hand side underneath the social media icons.

[Alan Mendelson]

Is he saying that there is some formula for winning including when to press bets?

[RoeIncarnate]

Is he saying that there is some formula for winning including when to press bets?

No he is very clear that you will lose. These are some strategies to de-risk and take profits.

[Alan Mendelson]

I haven't read it but I can tell you this: the only way to win at craps is to have the dice show the number you bet on for each roll. Any additional money on the table outside of the number showing is only a liability. No betting formula or plan can make you win.

[jbjb]

In other words, guess right.

[Alan Mendelson]

In other words, guess right.

Or try to make the dice hit your number. If you can't make the dice hit your number then you can guess which number the dice will show.

If you are guessing you should only bet pass or don't pass and hope you guessed correctly.

[RoeIncarnate]

One of his more interesting points is this:
Place the 6 and 8. Then you have 6 ways to loose (the 7) and 10 ways to win something (5 ways to make a 6, 5 ways to make an 8).

[Alan Mendelson]

One of his more interesting points is this:
Place the 6 and 8. Then you have 6 ways to loose (the 7) and 10 ways to win something (5 ways to make a 6, 5 ways to make an 8).

Unfortunately his math is bad.
You have 6 ways to lose but only 5 ways to win the 6 or 8. You cannot win both on the same roll of the dice.

[Alan Mendelson]

One of his more interesting points is this:
Place the 6 and 8. Then you have 6 ways to loose (the 7) and 10 ways to win something (5 ways to make a 6, 5 ways to make an 8).

Unfortunately his math is bad.
You have 6 ways to lose but only 5 ways to win the 6 or 8. You cannot win both on the same roll of the dice.

Let me continue this:

There are 6 ways to make a 7 and there are many more winning combinations on two dice. Let's start just with the "box numbers":

4 has 3 ways to be made 1/3 3/1 2/2
5 has 4 ways to be made 3/2 2/3 1/4 4/1
6 has 5 ways to be made 2/4 4/2 1/5 5/1 3/3
8 has 5 ways to be made 6/2 2/6 5/3 3/5 4/4
9 has 4 ways to be made 5/4 4/4 3/6 6/3
10 has 3 ways to be made 4/6 6/4 5/5

The 7 has 6 ways to be made: 1/6 6/1 2/5 5/2 3/4 4/3

Sure there are more dice combinations that will give you a win because the box numbers add up to 24 combinations of two dice. But you don't win all of those combinations on each throw of two dice-- you only win ONE of those box numbers.

So to say that there are 6 losing combinations on two dice but the box numbers have 24 "winning combinations" disregards how the game is actually played.

And this is why winning at craps is difficult for "right way" players: you only win one of those numbers at a time, but when a 7 shows you lose all of those numbers at the same time.