How to kill a forum

[redietz]

I think RS and others do a stellar job of telling people what NOT to do gambling-wise, which is of much more practical use than spilling the beans on a play that, if you spill the beans on, is gone.

More money will be saved learning what NOT to do than will be made from transient plays.

Rob's value is in what he tells people NOT to do.

As far as sports betting goes, sports statistics have been data-mined 24/7 for more than the last decade by people with very sophisticated programs. There are no real secrets. If you win, it's because you know your stuff, not because there is some hidden thumbnail angle or statistic that other people could learn.

[Alan Mendelson]

The problem with asking for real names is that you can't know if the real names are real. I could use the name Kathy Kraft. Who is Kathy Kraft? She's the girl I regret I didn't take to my senior prom.

[Rob.Singer]

Sports betting success also has an equivalent luck factor. If you win it's because you know your stuff and the ball or the puck happen to bounce your way--sometimes because of an assist from the skill of the player and sometimes not. The people who REALLY know their stuff are the line setters. They use 100% skill to base their decisions on.

When I started writing for GT Ellen D. wanted me to write about HOW to win, as that clown Elliot Frome does with his repeated articles year after year. However, her husband Chuck, the owner, went after me for the specific reason of telling people how not to play, which of course is heavily concentrated against vp advantage play. But if it's good for jbjb & RS__ to never say what or where a play is, how about they explain it after it's over? Then we can decide if it warrants kudos--or something else.

[jbjb]

I've said how I play. I just will not reveal locations and dealers names. My vp play is just chump stuff mainly for a little extra side money. You won't make a living vulturing.

Rob, the only thing I disagree with you, is your strategy. But that's for some other day, and honestly, how someone else plays is none of my business. There are many other aspects of things you've talked about though, that I DO agree with.

[redietz]

Sports betting success also has an equivalent luck factor. If you win it's because you know your stuff and the ball or the puck happen to bounce your way--sometimes because of an assist from the skill of the player and sometimes not. The people who REALLY know their stuff are the line setters. They use 100% skill to base their decisions on.

When I started writing for GT Ellen D. wanted me to write about HOW to win, as that clown Elliot Frome does with his repeated articles year after year. However, her husband Chuck, the owner, went after me for the specific reason of telling people how not to play, which of course is heavily concentrated against vp advantage play. But if it's good for jbjb & RS__ to never say what or where a play is, how about they explain it after it's over? Then we can decide if it warrants kudos--or something else.

Then the people who beat the line makers must be really something, eh?

The majority of lines are established by computerized power ratings, so if you want to salute some computer programs, be my guest. People then tweak the lines, but not much.

Forty years ago, the process was significantly different.

I should have a site or two running by next football season, and I'll attempt to have a brief history lesson in there somewhere. Stay tuned....

[Alan Mendelson]

Slobdinger I don't think revealed any casinos by name but he was specific about his plays and showed photos. That made him very believable even though where he played was not mentioned.

I understand it's more difficult to show proof of a dealer flashing hole cards but because that's not readily available on any consistent basis I can't consider it a true advantage play. It's more like your lucky to be there when the dealer slips up AND you have the cards to make a difference.

[jbjb]

Agreed that it's "luck" in finding these people. But once you do, the luck factor is gone.

[RS__]

I have no interest in naming names or specifics about a current, future, or previous play. Things that happened in the past but got shut down, oftentimes spring back up again down the road, usually at another property. But even then (if I were to give up the information), I know exactly how it'll turn out. Alan says some mumbo jumbo about "None of that matters, the only thing that matters is if you hit a royal flush or not. So you gotta fight against the RNG for the right cards to show up." Or something like, "That only exists in some tiny hick casino in N. Dakota" or "That was only possible in the past" or "that's just luck" (ie: Alan's last post). And if none of those pre-determined reasons for something not having an advantage, it'll end up being "it's against the rules".

I'm not interested in sharing any information on advantage plays, even though I have briefly described how some work. Instead of saying how to play, I'm more interested in saying how NOT to play (ie: Redeitz's first post on page 2 of this thread). If you're truly torn or not sure if advantage play is alive and well -- there are plenty of books, websites, articles, etc. describing it. What else can you say, Alan, when THEORY, MATH, and ACTUAL RESULTS all align?

[Alan Mendelson]

I also use theory, math and actual results but only actual results pay bills.

[RS__]

I also use theory, math and actual results but only actual results pay bills.

You make it seem like theory & math are completely irrelevant.

[Alan Mendelson]

You make it seem like theory & math are completely irrelevant.

No. But theory and math don't pay the bills. So: do you hold a dealt flush with four to the royal or go for the royal? We all know what the math and the theory says.

[RoeIncarnate]

I don't use my real name because employers might Google me before making hiring decisions. Not everyone accepts gambling as a reasonable form of entertainment.

I once asked a question about programming in a forum while in university. If you google my real name that post still comes up over 15 years later. The internet doesn't forget.

[RS__]

No. But theory and math don't pay the bills. So: do you hold a dealt flush with four to the royal or go for the royal? We all know what the math and the theory says.

And holding the flush will not pay the bills either. Alan, why are you even arguing? It seems like no matter what the case is -- you are so anti-advantage-play, it doesn't matter what kind of proof or theory or logic or anything there is -- you'll always try to find a way to deny its existence.

[coach belly]

Alan, why are you even arguing? It seems like no matter what the case is -- you are so anti-advantage-play, it doesn't matter what kind of proof or theory or logic or anything there is -- you'll always try to find a way to deny its existence.

And there you have an ad hominem attack...an attack on the man...rather than his position.

That's pretty common here...and to discourage it...I think...is how you kill a forum.

[Alan Mendelson]

RS___ is the worst. You should see what he says about me on Brand B... even while he posts here.

Here's the problem, RS___: Of course I would go for the royal, but you cannot judge what another does. For someone else holding the dealt flush is enough to make their day. For example-- someone is playing a $100/coin VP machine, 8/5 Bonus. What's that dealt flush worth to them?

Of course you can argue they have no business playing a $100/coin VP machine if they don't have the bankroll to try for the royal. But it's their money -- not yours. And that is the point: it's their money, and winning $2500 just might be the big windfall they need. And for them $2500 in hand is worth a heck of a lot more than $400,000 in the bush.

This is where actual results beat math and theory.

But the armchair quarterbacks (Super Bowl is tomorrow hence the analogy) would never understand that.

[jbjb]

One just has higher variance. 'Tis all.

[Alan Mendelson]

I don't use my real name because employers might Google me before making hiring decisions. Not everyone accepts gambling as a reasonable form of entertainment.

I once asked a question about programming in a forum while in university. If you google my real name that post still comes up over 15 years later. The internet doesn't forget.

This is a very valid reason not to use your own name.

There used to be a very active TV news gossip and discussion website. I assure you -- NO ONE used their real name... except for me. But I had nothing to hide. And I didn't go on that website to insult my employer or call coworkers incompetent.

[Rob.Singer]

I've said how I play. I just will not reveal locations and dealers names. My vp play is just chump stuff mainly for a little extra side money. You won't make a living vulturing.

Rob, the only thing I disagree with you, is your strategy. But that's for some other day, and honestly, how someone else plays is none of my business. There are many other aspects of things you've talked about though, that I DO agree with.

I realize all that because I remember older posts (which I believe redietz won't agree with as being valid). While others might like to know dealer names etc., I have no interest in that.

[Rob.Singer]

Slobdinger I don't think revealed any casinos by name but he was specific about his plays and showed photos. That made him very believable even though where he played was not mentioned.

I understand it's more difficult to show proof of a dealer flashing hole cards but because that's not readily available on any consistent basis I can't consider it a true advantage play. It's more like your lucky to be there when the dealer slips up AND you have the cards to make a difference.

If you've been to/thru Montana you'd see that all the "casinos" (really, bars with upright machines scattered around the perimeters) are small, and nothing fancy at all. Think of your local watering hole in a dingy area, then throw some machines inside.

Sure he took pictures of his winners....or at least what he says are his winners. But as we've all seen from the vocal critics here, even if they were his, where's the proof that he didn't lose it all and more? Does it make sense someone makes 6 figures a year from mostly keno machines that cap out at $800 jackpots? Does it make sense that a down & out drifter like him who is an admitted alcoholic and is therefore likely very well known at all the bars he goes to, goes unnoticed as he rapes them all? Remember, he said that he always wins where he plays and never loses. Think about it.

[Rob.Singer]

The main problem with ap vp is exactly what I've said many times, and Alan's "theory and math don't pay the bills" is the perfect epilogue.

I was a math-loving/theory-adoring/probability-believing maniac for 6+ years with the education and motivation to back it up. Yet all I ended up with was a huge pile of slot club benefits & "freebies", a truckload of phantom bucks, and a 1996 bankruptcy (brought on by a stupid mistake, but the money I lost could have covered it). After that, who would be foolish enough to continue the same path?

It may work for some in video poker, but for very, very few. Luck is so much more important than skill in that game. And it is SO easy to spot stories from AP's that don't hold water. That's why I became Rob Singer, and that's why vp "AP's" can't stand me or what I've accomplished. (including arci....aka, "the saint")