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Thread: Krigman: Faith in the Law of Averages is Misplaced

  1. #1
    This is really an eye-opening column written by Alan Krigman. Here is a link to it:

    http://krigman.casinocitytimes.com/a...isplaced-59918

    It makes you wonder if anyone has the bankroll to see the law of averages at work, and it makes you wonder if there really is such a thing as advantage play in video poker?

  2. #2
    The examples given in the column were for extremely small numbers of samples. He also tended to focus on the negative. The same thoughts hold as true for beating the odds.

    Bankroll is always given in terms of risk of ruin and it is never zero. That's why they call it gambling. But, these risks also come into play in everyday life. If you worried about extremely unlikely events all the time you'd never leave the house.

  3. #3
    I know that definitions can really confuse gamblers a lot when they discuss the theory of gambling. The classic is something I learned in various discussions about craps.

    The point is that while the house does not have a mathematical advantage on the "odds bets" in craps, the house is still more likely to win the "odds bets" for the "right way players," and the house is more likely to lose the "odds bets" for the "wrong way players."

    Craps players always talk about the odds being the "best bet on the table" because there is no mathematical advantage, but they neglect two things:

    1. there is no mathematical advantage for the house or for the player, either.
    2. the house is still more likely to win the right way odds, and the players are more likely to win the wrong way odds.

    So given that we may never see the long term when we play, I am inclined to go with #2 above than with #1.

    Quoting from Krigman's article (link above): "The ultimate error in trusting the law of averages is in believing there’s an underlying mechanism that maintains the equilibrium it represents."

    And in video poker while royal flushes might come around every 40K to 48K I've played more than 120K hands since my last royal.

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